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Middle East · resolved market

Will the US next strike Iran on February 25, 2026 (ET)?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,565,929
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,564,666

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,565,929 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 201 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3a8e…1cc7backed Yes2c188,705$3,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,491.2150%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9f0…42d1backed Yes1c184,216$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,050.35440%0 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45f2…ac3cbacked Yes3c89,766$2,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,621.811540%6 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.22per pick18cpaid+149.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes1c86,422$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.8522227%60 W · 162 L+17.8wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x81ab…ba97backed Yes3c60,072$1,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,542.167330.1%22 W · 51 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e17…7151backed Yes3c56,764$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8004513.3%6 W · 39 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick8cpaid-7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc714…4141backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50160%0 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes1c46,789$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.6317111.7%20 W · 151 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x270d…5ff2backed Yes3c43,021$1,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,234.86722.4%15 W · 52 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+76.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x45a2…3c01backed Yes1c41,788$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.033315.2%5 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-67.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x155b…7aafbacked Yes1c38,766$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.559410.6%10 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc49d…4d1cbacked Yes4c35,218$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6286…f59cbacked Yes2c34,073$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.5825518%46 W · 209 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-26.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2234…8d2ebacked Yes2c32,978$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.79120%0 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67d0…db7abacked Yes2c31,613$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.8513617.6%24 W · 112 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+58.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fd2…495dbacked Yes0c30,518$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick22cpaid+109.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c29,826$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.357135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes2c28,618$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.047611.8%9 W · 67 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3df…6f87backed Yes1c27,807$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.677311%8 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4f5…9663backed Yes1c27,804$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.64240%0 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x07dd…2038backed Yes1c27,405$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.52287.1%2 W · 26 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+200.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes1c23,647$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.818929.1%55 W · 134 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x40f1…15f9backed Yes4c22,325$918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9184526.7%12 W · 33 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-28.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x798c…7bcabacked Yes2c19,893$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.142114.3%3 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick5cpaid+266.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes2c19,523$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.519736.1%35 W · 62 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes2c19,043$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.5711615.5%18 W · 98 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c17,051$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.653103.9%12 W · 298 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fa1…1fa9backed Yes3c17,043$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003917.9%7 W · 32 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick13cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes4c16,002$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.226045%27 W · 33 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+29.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e0b…4ff6backed Yes0c15,209$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.213240.6%13 W · 19 L+6.4wins+0.20per pick21cpaid+100.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes1c15,000$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1951128.9%10 W · 102 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick14cpaid+149.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes1c14,999$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.92867%6 W · 80 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-23.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xff91…a1edbacked Yes4c13,755$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002231.8%7 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+51%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes1c13,477$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.27280%0 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes0c13,000$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199414.9%14 W · 80 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+86.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa794…1361backed Yes1c10,829$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick2cpaid+328.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0527…20b1backed Yes1c10,645$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.821151.7%2 W · 113 L0.0wins0.00per pick2cpaid-78.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc40b…3233backed Yes1c10,556$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80c5…333dbacked Yes2c10,002$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002955.2%16 W · 13 L+5.7wins+0.20per pick35cpaid+113.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe361…96cabacked Yes3c10,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.99190%0 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf59f…3be9backed Yes1c10,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7015743.9%69 W · 88 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bbf…edb8backed Yes1c9,954$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001822.2%4 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick16cpaid+197.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c9,462$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.484625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11d5…1b17backed Yes1c9,247$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.42387.9%3 W · 35 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-41.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9db…d937backed Yes1c8,850$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.923438.2%13 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+59.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8517…2ce5backed Yes2c8,657$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200850%4 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+925.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x0e99…994ebacked Yes2c8,166$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.771910.5%2 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick4cpaid+43.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed Yes1c7,500$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.3538247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0262…a9d2backed Yes1c7,131$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.976735.8%24 W · 43 L-7.1wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-36%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf3ce…135abacked Yes0c7,109$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick21cpaid-26.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecc2…f4e2backed Yes1c7,077$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.79128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-78.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f67…de01backed Yes1c7,070$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.57310%0 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6826…f19dbacked Yes2c6,479$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129362.8%1 W · 35 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick10cpaid-78.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3739…307fbacked Yes1c6,405$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2934.3%4 W · 89 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+75.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes1c6,217$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672476.9%17 W · 230 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3e…1598backed Yes2c6,119$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-47.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes2c6,118$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.771995%10 W · 189 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes2c6,070$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.587610.5%8 W · 68 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed Yes1c6,056$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.025525.5%14 W · 41 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick19cpaid-33.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3680…a456backed Yes1c6,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick6cpaid-15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcb0…f77dbacked Yes3c6,000$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1683414.7%5 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-48.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes1c6,000$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54626.5%4 W · 58 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick9cpaid+10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fd8…eb32backed Yes2c5,735$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.5980%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes2c5,515$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.4321831.2%68 W · 150 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea7b…9c4dbacked Yes1c5,230$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353625%9 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+48.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes2c5,178$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.023717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05ee…b9c9backed Yes1c5,157$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.44965.2%5 W · 91 L-0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55a0…8b02backed Yes3c5,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.812015%3 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-45.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes1c5,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3036227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc75d…a3cdbacked Yes1c4,838$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.352913.8%4 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick6cpaid+163.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c4,761$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.424195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacd9…cb54backed Yes2c4,500$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902020%4 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb28…b1a2backed Yes1c4,494$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0811730.8%36 W · 81 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3132…cae8backed Yes1c4,368$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.82368.3%3 W · 33 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x624c…cdc7backed Yes1c4,321$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.172711.1%3 W · 24 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-46.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d9a…4841backed Yes3c4,275$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.85156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick7cpaid+33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x319d…2538backed Yes2c4,148$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+74.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x05a9…1e0dbacked Yes2c4,095$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002733.3%9 W · 18 L+3.5wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+321.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes1c3,767$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.761477.5%11 W · 136 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+31.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc607…6b29backed Yes1c3,700$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.62615.4%4 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-60.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe158…9899backed Yes3c3,571$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes1c3,350$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.131442.8%4 W · 140 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4261…c62fbacked Yes3c3,333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.99911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick3cpaid+79.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6e…b6b0backed Yes3c3,245$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001020%2 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-31.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x443e…8055backed Yes1c3,198$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.883119.4%6 W · 25 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x92c5…a375backed Yes3c3,061$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.25156.7%1 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid+29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb32…0cc1backed Yes1c2,869$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.951910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-86.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6df…c2a2backed Yes3c2,773$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes1c2,685$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2138237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b4e…2ff5backed Yes3c2,522$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8090%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85ef…3116backed Yes1c2,511$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccb3…2eadbacked Yes3c2,502$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6612544%55 W · 70 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90d1…f62abacked Yes1c2,465$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.54720%0 W · 72 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c2,429$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.281,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d9e…3a2ebacked Yes1c2,361$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1980%0 W · 8 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a3b…3149backed Yes1c2,204$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.842814.3%4 W · 24 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick7cpaid-60.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x189a…ee8ebacked Yes1c2,171$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-18%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes1c2,130$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.171703.5%6 W · 164 L+0.6wins0.00per pick3cpaid+16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73f3…17ddbacked Yes1c2,094$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6647.8%5 W · 59 L-0.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-44.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48af…89ccbacked Yes4c2,082$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805347.2%25 W · 28 L+10.5wins+0.20per pick27cpaid+27%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.