Middle East · resolved market
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee4520e0dc6e83786f8ad5822656d6d44878ae4077548295f0009f871e784ce5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,202,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,848,430
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,202,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 299 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 1c | 100,200$1,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,302.6 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45f2…ac3cbacked Yes | 2c | 58,599$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.76 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +149.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f0…42d1backed Yes | 4c | 49,747$1,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,865.51 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x593d…7d5dbacked Yes | 1c | 46,026$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.31 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8367…bf9fbacked Yes | 1c | 35,685$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 28,238$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.85 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 2c | 26,630$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.6 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9724…fbc7backed Yes | 2c | 26,197$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.53 | 76 | 10.5%8 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked Yes | 4c | 25,254$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.15 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 2c | 25,102$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.74 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 2c | 23,209$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.84 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 3c | 21,487$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.49 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3874…9801backed Yes | 4c | 20,733$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…e1b6backed Yes | 4c | 20,132$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.77 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 2c | 20,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 2c | 19,743$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.69 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca7…8195backed Yes | 2c | 18,238$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.52 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…2038backed Yes | 1c | 17,999$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.91 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +200.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e99…994ebacked Yes | 3c | 17,889$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.72 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 2c | 17,500$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.11 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x798c…7bcabacked Yes | 4c | 17,154$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.41 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 5cpaid | +266.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb0…f77dbacked Yes | 2c | 17,033$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.67 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes | 1c | 17,000$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes | 4c | 15,000$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.62 | 86 | 7%6 W · 80 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 13,567$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.96 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 12,824$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.93 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf330…718abacked Yes | 4c | 12,471$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 2c | 11,300$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.6 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…509cbacked Yes | 4c | 10,745$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.07 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x030e…5652backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de5…5609backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83e0…53e6backed Yes | 1c | 9,901$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.61 | 82 | 30.5%25 W · 57 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e17…7151backed Yes | 5c | 9,551$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.23 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa64b…e68cbacked Yes | 3c | 9,195$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +211.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 8,978$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.04 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec8f…94d5backed Yes | 6c | 8,607$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed Yes | 2c | 8,497$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.45 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ab…daccbacked Yes | 1c | 8,129$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…6632backed Yes | 4c | 7,803$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.69 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…e049backed Yes | 1c | 7,777$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.1 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +8.2wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…1082backed Yes | 2c | 7,684$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 2c | 7,650$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.05 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92e2…419dbacked Yes | 3c | 7,590$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75d…a3cdbacked Yes | 1c | 7,520$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.02 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | +163.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 7,424$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.28 | 96 | 4.2%4 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 1c | 7,313$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.52 | 155 | 23.2%36 W · 119 L | +12.1wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60bb…d33fbacked Yes | 4c | 7,113$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb99…4cedbacked Yes | 4c | 6,916$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 1c | 6,400$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0527…20b1backed Yes | 3c | 6,351$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.76 | 115 | 1.7%2 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…bfa2backed Yes | 2c | 6,326$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc40b…3233backed Yes | 2c | 6,253$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.3 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,019$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.51 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1a…9290backed Yes | 2c | 6,008$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…96cabacked Yes | 6c | 6,000$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 3c | 5,723$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.22 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 2c | 5,653$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.49 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 4c | 5,554$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…44c8backed Yes | 4c | 5,273$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.01 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad2e…d9bdbacked Yes | 2c | 5,179$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.43 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5b…0f93backed Yes | 2c | 5,029$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 6cpaid | +900%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 2c | 5,000$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.88 | 76 | 10.5%8 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4b…07cbbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +187.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…3be9backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 157 | 43.9%69 W · 88 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…b9c9backed Yes | 3c | 4,982$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.53 | 96 | 5.2%5 W · 91 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95fd…7e04backed Yes | 4c | 4,795$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.2 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +5.5wins | +0.32per pick | 15cpaid | +186%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…02cbbacked Yes | 3c | 4,420$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.7 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +189.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4751…e334backed Yes | 2c | 3,980$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.66 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e8…ff04backed Yes | 3c | 3,964$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1644…a664backed Yes | 2c | 3,887$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 6cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 3,856$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 2c | 3,850$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 104 | 35.6%37 W · 67 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b6…4c5dbacked Yes | 5c | 3,799$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 6cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc948…59b7backed Yes | 5c | 3,660$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.01 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 3c | 3,637$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.24 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…de80backed Yes | 3c | 3,580$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.71 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…e0ffbacked Yes | 2c | 3,512$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a5…5f15backed Yes | 1c | 3,439$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x319d…2538backed Yes | 4c | 3,370$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,340$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.06 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2f…05efbacked Yes | 2c | 3,223$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3301…4dd8backed Yes | 1c | 3,221$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c5…8732backed Yes | 3c | 3,092$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0462…b9c3backed Yes | 2c | 3,088$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadd1…a4a3backed Yes | 3c | 3,078$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ca…c279backed Yes | 2c | 3,075$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6826…f19dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,057$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…ee81backed Yes | 3c | 3,000$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +284.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e34…c876backed Yes | 4c | 3,000$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 2c | 2,898$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1526…e9bfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,875$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbfb…6178backed Yes | 5c | 2,864$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…fc8ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,791$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7b…413abacked Yes | 3c | 2,739$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.11 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 2,594$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d5…1b17backed Yes | 3c | 2,579$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.95 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 4c | 2,553$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.4 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed Yes | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1e…47d5backed Yes | 2c | 2,499$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)?this page
- Will the US next strike Iran in January 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 1, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 10, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 13, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 14, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 15, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 16, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 17, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 18, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 19, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 2, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 23, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 25, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?Yes won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 3, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 4, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 5, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 6, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 7, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 8, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 9, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.