TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,202,132
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,848,430

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,202,132 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 299 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x53e5…6177backed Yes1c100,200$1,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,302.613823.2%32 W · 106 L+0.6wins0.00per pick23cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45f2…ac3cbacked Yes2c58,599$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.761540%6 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.22per pick18cpaid+149.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb9f0…42d1backed Yes4c49,747$1,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,865.51440%0 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x593d…7d5dbacked Yes1c46,026$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.314214.3%6 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8367…bf9fbacked Yes1c35,685$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c28,238$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.857135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes2c26,630$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.61128.9%10 W · 102 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick14cpaid+149.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9724…fbc7backed Yes2c26,197$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.537610.5%8 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3541…462ebacked Yes4c25,254$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.157732.5%25 W · 52 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes2c25,102$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.747611.8%9 W · 67 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes2c23,209$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.8440433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes3c21,487$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.4911615.5%18 W · 98 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3874…9801backed Yes4c20,733$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick5cpaid+51.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa58b…e1b6backed Yes4c20,132$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.771338.5%5 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+56.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes2c20,000$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31043212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes2c19,743$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.6936227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ca7…8195backed Yes2c18,238$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.526013.3%8 W · 52 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+64.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07dd…2038backed Yes1c17,999$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.91287.1%2 W · 26 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+200.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e99…994ebacked Yes3c17,889$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.721910.5%2 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick4cpaid+43.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed Yes2c17,500$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.1138247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x798c…7bcabacked Yes4c17,154$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.412114.3%3 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick5cpaid+266.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbcb0…f77dbacked Yes2c17,033$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.673414.7%5 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-48.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes1c17,000$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177626.5%4 W · 58 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick9cpaid+10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes4c15,000$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.62867%6 W · 80 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-23.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c13,567$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.961,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes3c12,824$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.931995%10 W · 189 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf330…718abacked Yes4c12,471$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes0c12,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169414.9%14 W · 80 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+86.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes2c11,300$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.617111.7%20 W · 151 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e9e…509cbacked Yes4c10,745$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.07230%0 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x030e…5652backed Yes2c10,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18080%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9de5…5609backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83e0…53e6backed Yes1c9,901$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.618230.5%25 W · 57 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+73.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e17…7151backed Yes5c9,551$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.234513.3%6 W · 39 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick8cpaid-7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa64b…e68cbacked Yes3c9,195$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300450%2 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+211.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes3c8,978$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.044625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec8f…94d5backed Yes6c8,607$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x80a0…5708backed Yes2c8,497$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.458125.9%21 W · 60 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ab…daccbacked Yes1c8,129$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1213910.3%4 W · 35 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-58.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87ff…6632backed Yes4c7,803$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.693925.6%10 W · 29 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick17cpaid-6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a4a…e049backed Yes1c7,777$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.13450%17 W · 17 L+8.2wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+98.5%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xed44…1082backed Yes2c7,684$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181611.6%1 W · 60 L-0.3wins0.00per pick2cpaid-76.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes2c7,650$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.055431.5%17 W · 37 L+5.6wins+0.10per pick21cpaid+61.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x92e2…419dbacked Yes3c7,590$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001020%2 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc75d…a3cdbacked Yes1c7,520$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.022913.8%4 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick6cpaid+163.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c7,424$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.28964.2%4 W · 92 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes1c7,313$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.5215523.2%36 W · 119 L+12.1wins+0.08per pick15cpaid+64.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x60bb…d33fbacked Yes4c7,113$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.99156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb99…4cedbacked Yes4c6,916$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.89425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes1c6,400$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613630.6%11 W · 25 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-16.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0527…20b1backed Yes3c6,351$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.761151.7%2 W · 113 L0.0wins0.00per pick2cpaid-78.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5968…bfa2backed Yes2c6,326$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc40b…3233backed Yes2c6,253$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.3100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6286…f59cbacked Yes1c6,019$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.5125518%46 W · 209 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-26.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xeb1a…9290backed Yes2c6,008$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe361…96cabacked Yes6c6,000$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384190%0 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30a7…02fabacked Yes3c5,723$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.228515.3%13 W · 72 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-60.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes2c5,653$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.4948923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes4c5,554$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21621926.5%58 W · 161 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+76.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x82ca…44c8backed Yes4c5,273$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.011520%3 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-51.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xad2e…d9bdbacked Yes2c5,179$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.432030%6 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick21cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd5b…0f93backed Yes2c5,029$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick6cpaid+900%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes2c5,000$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.887610.5%8 W · 68 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d4b…07cbbacked Yes1c5,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304825%12 W · 36 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+187.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf59f…3be9backed Yes2c5,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10015743.9%69 W · 88 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05ee…b9c9backed Yes3c4,982$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.53965.2%5 W · 91 L-0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95fd…7e04backed Yes4c4,795$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.21747.1%8 W · 9 L+5.5wins+0.32per pick15cpaid+186%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x31db…02cbbacked Yes3c4,420$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.7128.3%1 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick8cpaid+189.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4751…e334backed Yes2c3,980$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.66130%0 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13e8…ff04backed Yes3c3,964$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1644…a664backed Yes2c3,887$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick6cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes2c3,856$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.992476.9%17 W · 230 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes2c3,850$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.510435.6%37 W · 67 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf7b6…4c5dbacked Yes5c3,799$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick6cpaid+92.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc948…59b7backed Yes5c3,660$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.0190%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes3c3,637$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.243717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3690…de80backed Yes3c3,580$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.711612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick9cpaid-41.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d57…e0ffbacked Yes2c3,512$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.46028.3%17 W · 43 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05a5…5f15backed Yes1c3,439$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50650%3 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+82.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x319d…2538backed Yes4c3,370$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1451931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+74.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes2c3,340$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.061477.5%11 W · 136 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+31.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b2f…05efbacked Yes2c3,223$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64258%2 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-65.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3301…4dd8backed Yes1c3,221$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.581910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+73.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c5…8732backed Yes3c3,092$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003938.5%15 W · 24 L+5.0wins+0.13per pick26cpaid+69.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0462…b9c3backed Yes2c3,088$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5090%0 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadd1…a4a3backed Yes3c3,078$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005630.4%17 W · 39 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x55ca…c279backed Yes2c3,075$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7060%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6826…f19dbacked Yes3c3,057$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94362.8%1 W · 35 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick10cpaid-78.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf23…ee81backed Yes3c3,000$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick19cpaid+284.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e34…c876backed Yes4c3,000$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1174320.9%9 W · 34 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick17cpaid+21.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes2c2,898$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.951442.8%4 W · 140 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1526…e9bfbacked Yes1c2,875$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbfb…6178backed Yes5c2,864$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.9714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick8cpaid-26.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a35…fc8ebacked Yes1c2,791$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.74402.5%1 W · 39 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick11cpaid-83.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d7b…413abacked Yes3c2,739$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.113315.2%5 W · 28 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-26.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c2,594$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.224195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11d5…1b17backed Yes3c2,579$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.95387.9%3 W · 35 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-41.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes4c2,553$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.412325.2%31 W · 92 L+15.2wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+1.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x03c8…0e01backed Yes2c2,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507816.7%13 W · 65 L-0.3wins0.00per pick17cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d1e…47d5backed Yes2c2,499$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.