Middle East · resolved market
Will the US next strike Iran on February 13, 2026 (ET)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e32e01144b8b92af76c80f31f7b984757b3d0a689d74617c6ec7b64566e0ff5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,200,923
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $916,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,200,923 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x593d…7d5dbacked Yes | 1c | 163,769$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.61 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e2…2093backed Yes | 1c | 81,686$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.54 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +109.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 2c | 37,641$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.73 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes | 1c | 29,090$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.84 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes | 1c | 25,000$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9724…fbc7backed Yes | 2c | 20,492$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.11 | 76 | 10.5%8 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb37…7152backed Yes | 2c | 20,445$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 2c | 18,385$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.75 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes | 1c | 14,930$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.64 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…f0abbacked Yes | 3c | 13,863$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23c3…12a5backed Yes | 1c | 13,810$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.98 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8d…3451backed Yes | 0c | 12,833$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 2c | 12,818$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.24 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 12,228$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.27 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 2c | 11,525$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.11 | 104 | 35.6%37 W · 67 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83e0…53e6backed Yes | 2c | 11,021$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.31 | 82 | 30.5%25 W · 57 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae8d…52f1backed Yes | 2c | 10,849$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -36%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 10,791$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.93 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c6…c0a6backed Yes | 1c | 10,640$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8cd…cca1backed Yes | 1c | 10,640$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 2c | 10,555$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.43 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…2038backed Yes | 2c | 10,057$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.68 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +200.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9f…8680backed Yes | 2c | 10,001$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.36 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…ed7dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4be9…1442backed Yes | 5c | 10,000$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.25 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b6…ca49backed Yes | 3c | 9,447$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75d…a3cdbacked Yes | 2c | 9,287$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.96 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | +163.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 2c | 8,761$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.16 | 155 | 23.2%36 W · 119 L | +12.1wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 8,070$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.21 | 96 | 4.2%4 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 1c | 8,000$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…96cabacked Yes | 2c | 8,000$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07e…7db6backed Yes | 2c | 7,597$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.15 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb0…f77dbacked Yes | 3c | 7,374$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.15 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…f074backed Yes | 1c | 7,143$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…e0ffbacked Yes | 2c | 6,490$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.67 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 2c | 6,110$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.3 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 6,005$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.16 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 2c | 5,961$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.95 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a3…25d8backed Yes | 2c | 5,722$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 2c | 5,677$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.72 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c4…0d19backed Yes | 1c | 5,555$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 2c | 5,066$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.17 | 76 | 10.5%8 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,969$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.83 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes | 2c | 4,807$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.36 | 86 | 7%6 W · 80 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 4,601$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.05 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d5…1b17backed Yes | 3c | 4,501$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 4,078$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.4 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5494…85febacked Yes | 2c | 3,675$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 1c | 3,653$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e99…994ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,631$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f1…1c00backed Yes | 1c | 3,611$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0527…20b1backed Yes | 1c | 3,605$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 115 | 1.7%2 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Yes | 1c | 3,546$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +136.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…465abacked Yes | 5c | 3,336$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c18…3570backed Yes | 2c | 3,225$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.16 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…581ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,225$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a81…420fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 2c | 3,018$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.58 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df2…01afbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 46 | 10.9%5 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…6632backed Yes | 1c | 2,973$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf964…6e97backed Yes | 1c | 2,743$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,690$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.86 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Yes | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…b9c9backed Yes | 2c | 2,500$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.21 | 96 | 5.2%5 W · 91 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…7dd6backed Yes | 4c | 2,473$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2234…8d2ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,467$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,186$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3739…307fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…2a1fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,003$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | +15.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd05a…f204backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -72%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…62ccbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes | 2c | 1,960$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 1c | 1,923$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 170 | 3.5%6 W · 164 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,908$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a0…6e95backed Yes | 1c | 1,844$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 9cpaid | +143.7%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5554…b12dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,841$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…974dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,824$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 51 | 5.9%3 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…ddfcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,777$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…6c15backed Yes | 3c | 1,773$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | +237.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba4c…6110backed Yes | 3c | 1,705$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90fa…4922backed Yes | 1c | 1,642$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e27…3193backed Yes | 3c | 1,602$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 35 | 0%0 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90d1…f62abacked Yes | 2c | 1,502$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 72 | 0%0 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb0…3b3bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,447$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d51…6c59backed Yes | 2c | 1,425$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6826…f19dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,414$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 2c | 1,250$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x949f…4ae8backed Yes | 1c | 1,220$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02e9…368cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,150$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…1ee2backed Yes | 2c | 1,112$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe30b…114ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,077$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…d382backed Yes | 2c | 1,058$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a40…599ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,031$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb04…ff46backed Yes | 2c | 1,010$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes | 2c | 1,003$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +64%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31cd…47e5backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccd…1ec9backed Yes | 1c | 999.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8e…6ccbbacked Yes | 4c | 987.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…65cfbacked Yes | 2c | 955.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +287.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfed…61b5backed Yes | 2c | 950.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 13, 2026 (ET)?this page
- Will the US next strike Iran in January 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 1, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 10, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 14, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 15, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 16, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 17, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 18, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 19, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 2, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 23, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 25, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?Yes won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 3, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 4, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 5, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 6, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 7, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 8, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 9, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.