Middle East · resolved market

Will the US next strike Iran on February 2, 2026 (ET)?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b4256a6ff889bcb11c044929abd375791490ed93e2ee0409050725a9412036e

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 5, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $489,907
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $418,842

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $489,907 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2bb3…9e16backed Yes	0c	33,549$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	5cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9f0…42d1backed Yes	1c	30,000$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	44	0%0 W · 44 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes	0c	22,785$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.36	138	23.2%32 W · 106 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3ec1…f613backed Yes	1c	20,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xccaa…705ebacked Yes	1c	15,295$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	24	0%0 W · 24 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes	0c	12,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	94	14.9%14 W · 80 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+86.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0659…2995backed Yes	3c	10,168$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11d5…1b17backed Yes	4c	8,807$346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$345.85	38	7.9%3 W · 35 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8102…d50abacked Yes	1c	8,712$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.7	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	7,218$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.6	1,558	7.2%112 W · 1,446 L	-35.1wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes	1c	6,528$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.03	76	11.8%9 W · 67 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes	2c	6,000$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.65	86	7%6 W · 80 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf06…4799backed Yes	2c	5,999$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	+71.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09d2…26aebacked Yes	1c	4,012$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	50	10%5 W · 45 L	-3.9wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	2c	4,000$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	32	0%0 W · 32 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	2c	3,813$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.42	116	15.5%18 W · 98 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-50%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb9b…62ccbacked Yes	2c	3,428$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.56	77	26%20 W · 57 L	+6.5wins	+0.08per pick	17cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0527…20b1backed Yes	2c	2,975$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.55	115	1.7%2 W · 113 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	2cpaid	-78.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	2,909$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.92	713	5.6%40 W · 673 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72fa…5e4ebacked Yes	1c	2,858$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.45	33	3%1 W · 32 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	7cpaid	-92.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes	2c	2,847$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.67	147	7.5%11 W · 136 L	+5.0wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	+31.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	2c	2,795$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.39	199	5%10 W · 189 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes	2c	2,740$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.65	144	2.8%4 W · 140 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes	3c	2,523$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.41	125	25.6%32 W · 93 L	+5.8wins	+0.05per pick	21cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	2c	2,396$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.23	247	6.9%17 W · 230 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21c7…191abacked Yes	5c	2,200$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	75	20%15 W · 60 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54dd…3937backed Yes	1c	2,164$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	2c	2,146$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	462	5%23 W · 439 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7bea…7d80backed Yes	3c	2,099$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.66	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-2.4wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-48.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x73f3…17ddbacked Yes	1c	2,083$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.5	64	7.8%5 W · 59 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0faf…ca6abacked Yes	3c	2,021$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.95	74	13.5%10 W · 64 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee83…d382backed Yes	2c	2,012$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	31	0%0 W · 31 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefb5…9452backed Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-53.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cb0…3b3bbacked Yes	2c	1,765$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.88	68	4.4%3 W · 65 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	7cpaid	-87.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0182…5e6abacked Yes	3c	1,673$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.82	32	25%8 W · 24 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05ee…b9c9backed Yes	6c	1,590$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.19	96	5.2%5 W · 91 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37be…d876backed Yes	7c	1,535$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc226…ee11backed Yes	6c	1,495$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.08per pick	17cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc9d…930fbacked Yes	4c	1,464$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	49	14.3%7 W · 42 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3b…a86cbacked Yes	2c	1,460$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	21	0%0 W · 21 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc93e…7195backed Yes	1c	1,448$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	28	14.3%4 W · 24 L	-1.8wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-43.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	2c	1,416$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.86	413	6.8%28 W · 385 L	-13.6wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x266b…f342backed Yes	2c	1,369$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd9dd…9a89backed Yes	3c	1,175$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.62	19	0%0 W · 19 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd081…2ee2backed Yes	4c	1,159$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-1.3wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84c7…cabebacked Yes	2c	1,149$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.66	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.16per pick	4cpaid	+66.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	1,094$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.64	238	4.6%11 W · 227 L	-12.9wins	-0.05per pick	10cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb28…b1a2backed Yes	3c	1,049$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.74	117	30.8%36 W · 81 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3314…7175backed Yes	5c	1,036$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x807e…5405backed Yes	5c	1,007$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.33	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-2.7wins	-0.12per pick	20cpaid	-86.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	442	24.4%108 W · 334 L	+22.2wins	+0.05per pick	19cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x664d…aa7dbacked Yes	1c	999.9$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	62	29%18 W · 44 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	2c	934.18$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.33	170	3.5%6 W · 164 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3739…307fbacked Yes	2c	901.13$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.12	93	4.3%4 W · 89 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+75.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes	2c	900$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	281	26.3%74 W · 207 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3b5…8ad0backed Yes	3c	825.37$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.91	39	10.3%4 W · 35 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77c1…e407backed Yes	4c	821.32$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	41	7.3%3 W · 38 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-70.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca2c…dff0backed Yes	2c	794.74$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0d8…f5e2backed Yes	3c	757.49$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.88	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-74%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6286…f59cbacked Yes	3c	699.94$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.9	255	18%46 W · 209 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6b4a…e1babacked Yes	2c	666.65$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-83.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f31…3279backed Yes	2c	648.51$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5015…0d03backed Yes	6c	618.82$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	+4.4wins	+0.21per pick	22cpaid	+50.4%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa154…2320backed Yes	5c	604.91$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	17cpaid	-63%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa21a…ecdcbacked Yes	3c	572.64$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce2d…f266backed Yes	4c	509.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	42	21.4%9 W · 33 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes	5c	500$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.27	291	29.9%87 W · 204 L	+21.5wins	+0.07per pick	23cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6e9c…e966backed Yes	6c	472.35$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	52	28.8%15 W · 37 L	+4.3wins	+0.08per pick	21cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xde87…11a2backed Yes	3c	464.38$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.68	118	33.9%40 W · 78 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x978a…804fbacked Yes	3c	399.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19e2…be9bbacked Yes	3c	305.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.66	20	0%0 W · 20 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6db2…a781backed Yes	5c	300$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.1	100	43%43 W · 57 L	+13.0wins	+0.13per pick	30cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0x95bb…213abacked Yes	7c	269.35$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	+3.7wins	+0.16per pick	19cpaid	+50.1%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6988…9f4ebacked Yes	5c	205.3$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	99	42.4%42 W · 57 L	+3.7wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will the US next strike Iran on February 2, 2026 (ET)?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event