TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,013,510
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,606,077

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,013,510 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 239 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb9f0…42d1backed Yes0c133,702$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.84440%0 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80c5…333dbacked Yes3c93,142$2,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,677.312955.2%16 W · 13 L+5.7wins+0.20per pick35cpaid+113.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x45f2…ac3cbacked Yes4c90,549$3,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,234.471540%6 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.22per pick18cpaid+149.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x67d0…db7abacked Yes1c85,407$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.6113617.6%24 W · 112 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+58.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes1c74,528$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.0717111.7%20 W · 151 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe48b…8260backed Yes2c66,406$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,320757.1%4 W · 3 L+3.6wins+0.51per pick6cpaid+1,408.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes1c63,320$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.3122227%60 W · 162 L+17.8wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc171…4b4fbacked Yes1c60,642$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.21526.7%4 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.20per pick7cpaid+65.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a8e…1cc7backed Yes1c51,777$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.0150%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2e2…2093backed Yes0c50,100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.12213.6%3 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick8cpaid+109.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3869…0e3cbacked Yes4c47,117$1,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,933.632650%13 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+195.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x45a2…3c01backed Yes1c46,845$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.783315.2%5 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-67.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8517…2ce5backed Yes2c44,797$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920.79850%4 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+925.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x543e…8253backed Yes1c42,178$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.2185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-85%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes2c35,609$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.857611.8%9 W · 67 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6286…f59cbacked Yes2c32,611$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.3925518%46 W · 209 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-26.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c32,249$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.017135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4013…1506backed Yes4c32,226$1,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,43520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc410…9201backed Yes2c31,517$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.49137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+59.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c31,449$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.423103.9%12 W · 298 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ca7…8195backed Yes2c29,201$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.646013.3%8 W · 52 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+64.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x155b…7aafbacked Yes1c26,798$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.089410.6%10 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes2c24,440$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.2611615.5%18 W · 98 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c7e…3f04backed Yes2c23,954$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes0c22,115$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.39414.9%14 W · 80 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+86.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x07dd…2038backed Yes1c21,174$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.04287.1%2 W · 26 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+200.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4f5…9663backed Yes2c20,786$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.15240%0 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9e2…9631backed Yes5c20,399$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-27.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x32c3…ee65backed Yes1c19,990$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes1c19,178$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.6143212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes4c17,179$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.346045%27 W · 33 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+29.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fa1…1fa9backed Yes3c17,000$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.293917.9%7 W · 32 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick13cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a4a…e049backed Yes2c15,805$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.143450%17 W · 17 L+8.2wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+98.5%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes1c15,592$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.140433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0405…ac66backed Yes0c15,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes1c15,000$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.06867%6 W · 80 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-23.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x92c5…a375backed Yes3c14,269$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.91156.7%1 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid+29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ce3…75eebacked Yes0c13,705$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e17…7151backed Yes4c13,016$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.894513.3%6 W · 39 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick8cpaid-7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3325…938cbacked Yes1c12,473$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff91…a1edbacked Yes1c11,830$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1682231.8%7 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+51%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe467…437fbacked Yes4c11,176$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002729.6%8 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.14per pick16cpaid+38.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe361…96cabacked Yes3c11,000$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311190%0 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c10,395$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.794625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0527…20b1backed Yes1c10,172$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.761151.7%2 W · 113 L0.0wins0.00per pick2cpaid-78.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x270d…5ff2backed Yes2c9,859$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.566722.4%15 W · 52 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+76.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x812d…c7b2backed Yes2c9,215$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.98425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+33%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c9,026$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.691,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bbf…edb8backed Yes1c8,141$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001822.2%4 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick16cpaid+197.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6826…f19dbacked Yes2c8,031$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160362.8%1 W · 35 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick10cpaid-78.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa794…1361backed Yes1c7,550$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick2cpaid+328.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecc2…f4e2backed Yes1c7,035$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.03128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-78.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf59f…3be9backed Yes1c7,000$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6315743.9%69 W · 88 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f67…de01backed Yes1c6,977$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.24310%0 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x798c…7bcabacked Yes1c6,838$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.112114.3%3 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick5cpaid+266.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf241…3203backed Yes1c6,789$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes1c6,662$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.182476.9%17 W · 230 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x319d…2538backed Yes2c6,628$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1301931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+74.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c6,569$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.654195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82c7…e125backed Yes4c6,563$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2352920.7%6 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3639…d67bbacked Yes1c6,477$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.45714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-81%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf23…ee81backed Yes1c6,472$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.721926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick19cpaid+284.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes1c6,283$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.322282.6%6 W · 222 L+0.6wins0.00per pick2cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85ef…3116backed Yes1c6,231$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.6240%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes2c6,206$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.171995%10 W · 189 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x73f3…17ddbacked Yes2c6,198$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.5647.8%5 W · 59 L-0.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-44.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc75d…a3cdbacked Yes1c6,129$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.232913.8%4 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick6cpaid+163.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9724…fbc7backed Yes2c6,127$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.577610.5%8 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c69…51cabacked Yes2c6,041$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9213518.5%25 W · 110 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc607…6b29backed Yes1c6,018$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$892615.4%4 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-60.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbcb0…f77dbacked Yes3c6,000$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1683414.7%5 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-48.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f32…3e2cbacked Yes1c6,000$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.15933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+284.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes1c6,000$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63626.5%4 W · 58 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick9cpaid+10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05ee…b9c9backed Yes1c5,872$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.15965.2%5 W · 91 L-0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes2c5,870$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.363717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d9e…3a2ebacked Yes1c5,787$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3880%0 W · 8 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc40b…3233backed Yes1c5,756$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.55100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0282…d571backed Yes0c5,640$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.282213.6%3 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-61.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes1c5,600$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.78320%0 W · 32 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d9a…4841backed Yes2c5,599$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick7cpaid+33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f8f…40cfbacked Yes3c5,555$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.091650%8 W · 8 L+4.5wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+87.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x768f…9f81backed Yes2c5,469$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.76837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x11d5…1b17backed Yes1c5,418$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.81387.9%3 W · 35 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-41.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4261…c62fbacked Yes2c5,300$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.4911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick3cpaid+79.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e97…8908backed Yes1c5,291$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.21per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes2c5,267$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.0315523.2%36 W · 119 L+12.1wins+0.08per pick15cpaid+64.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6833…2011backed Yes0c5,108$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1090%0 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1287…e491backed Yes2c5,042$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.714717%8 W · 39 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55a0…8b02backed Yes3c5,000$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.272015%3 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-45.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes1c4,960$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6836227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed Yes1c4,744$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.175525.5%14 W · 41 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick19cpaid-33.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes1c4,633$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.461442.8%4 W · 140 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccb3…2eadbacked Yes2c4,629$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8512544%55 W · 70 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8aaa…51dfbacked Yes1c4,578$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.357938%30 W · 49 L+9.6wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+42.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2234…8d2ebacked Yes1c4,154$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5120%0 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes1c4,060$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.571477.5%11 W · 136 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+31.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2849…c0bebacked Yes3c3,940$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.671520%3 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+162.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec34…d61ebacked Yes2c3,918$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1991…348ebacked Yes2c3,737$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.272821.4%6 W · 22 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1e…a11dbacked Yes3c3,713$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.853225%8 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.