TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will the US next strike Iran on February 10, 2026 (ET)?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,824,909
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,084,915

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,824,909 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x14f6…15c4backed Yes0c495,437$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.44837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick19cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x69a8…aba9backed Yes0c386,348$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.35714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-81.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5eb…fad1backed Yes0c297,269$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.2730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe52a…a4f0backed Yes0c297,269$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.2730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes2c114,394$1,979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,979.154010%4 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-71.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes1c100,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00013823.2%32 W · 106 L+0.6wins0.00per pick23cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6810…38a3backed Yes1c68,749$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.961428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick17cpaid-33.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2234…8d2ebacked Yes1c61,283$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.67120%0 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9f0…42d1backed Yes1c55,794$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.76440%0 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x593d…7d5dbacked Yes1c50,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4004214.3%6 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67d0…db7abacked Yes1c30,739$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.3713617.6%24 W · 112 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+58.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0594…e07cbacked Yes0c29,000$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29837.5%3 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick12cpaid+283.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe4f5…9663backed Yes1c25,525$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.49240%0 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes1c24,560$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.817111.7%20 W · 151 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes1c18,882$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.687611.8%9 W · 67 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes1c15,000$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.98867%6 W · 80 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-23.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes0c13,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189414.9%14 W · 80 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+86.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7558…2d70backed Yes1c12,923$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.93128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick2cpaid+125.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f1…1c00backed Yes0c12,356$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5070%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ac4…387ebacked Yes0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c11,985$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.937135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes0c11,853$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.123810.5%4 W · 34 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-36.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c11,785$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.511,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11d5…1b17backed Yes1c11,705$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.91387.9%3 W · 35 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-41.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd73…b6acbacked Yes2c11,195$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes1c10,533$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3322227%60 W · 162 L+17.8wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe361…96cabacked Yes1c10,335$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100190%0 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66ba…793dbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes2c9,416$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.522438.2%20 W · 223 L+0.4wins0.00per pick8cpaid-47.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccaa…705ebacked Yes1c9,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100240%0 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes1c8,204$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.95120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cd9…6c15backed Yes3c7,286$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.36333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-57.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc998…7849backed Yes1c7,075$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes1c7,000$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9626.5%4 W · 58 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick9cpaid+10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes1c6,060$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.61812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick5cpaid-53.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc75d…a3cdbacked Yes1c5,804$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.572913.8%4 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick6cpaid+163.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes1c5,439$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.231477.5%11 W · 136 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+31.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes1c5,322$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.192476.9%17 W · 230 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes1c5,316$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.031442.8%4 W · 140 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbf…edb8backed Yes2c5,017$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001822.2%4 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick16cpaid+197.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes1c5,000$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6536227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0527…20b1backed Yes1c4,745$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.211151.7%2 W · 113 L0.0wins0.00per pick2cpaid-78.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes1c4,636$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1111615.5%18 W · 98 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05c3…3f7fbacked Yes1c4,082$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60468.7%4 W · 42 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-36.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes2c4,054$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.161995%10 W · 189 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes1c3,913$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.464625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c3,881$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.764195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cb0…3b3bbacked Yes1c3,605$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.16684.4%3 W · 65 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-87.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes2c3,500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.137610.5%8 W · 68 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba32…deaabacked Yes2c3,262$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.01382.6%1 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a49…efbabacked Yes2c3,208$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ba…f440backed Yes1c3,200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6234.3%1 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c3,100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.13103.9%12 W · 298 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes1c2,986$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.863122.6%7 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee83…d382backed Yes1c2,866$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40310%0 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90d1…f62abacked Yes1c2,745$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.86720%0 W · 72 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09d2…26aebacked Yes1c2,654$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255010%5 W · 45 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-81.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes1c2,589$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.118929.1%55 W · 134 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x11d3…ce3fbacked Yes2c2,556$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411040%4 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.25per pick15cpaid+41.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe67…3932backed Yes1c2,543$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick10cpaid-36.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a81…420fbacked Yes1c2,047$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16362.8%1 W · 35 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-77.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x05ee…b9c9backed Yes1c2,008$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.03965.2%5 W · 91 L-0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb9b…62ccbacked Yes1c2,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127726%20 W · 57 L+6.5wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-19.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x51b8…1df6backed Yes1c2,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick4cpaid-70.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes1c1,965$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5128126.3%74 W · 207 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6826…f19dbacked Yes2c1,882$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.99362.8%1 W · 35 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick10cpaid-78.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb28…b1a2backed Yes2c1,823$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9111730.8%36 W · 81 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x23c4…ae60backed Yes1c1,818$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-53.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd72d…60ddbacked Yes1c1,817$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.99333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick19cpaid-13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a3b…3149backed Yes1c1,800$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.12814.3%4 W · 24 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick7cpaid-60.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a8e…974dbacked Yes1c1,798$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23515.9%3 W · 48 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-58.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1f2…8da9backed Yes2c1,788$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4260%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes2c1,672$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.85372.7%1 W · 36 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed44…1082backed Yes1c1,662$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7611.6%1 W · 60 L-0.3wins0.00per pick2cpaid-76.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e4e…8f3ebacked Yes1c1,645$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes2c1,606$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.524136.8%28 W · 385 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1d7…9b6ebacked Yes2c1,594$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25170%0 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87ff…6632backed Yes1c1,552$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.623925.6%10 W · 29 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick17cpaid-6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8611…d28fbacked Yes1c1,507$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20150%0 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3739…307fbacked Yes1c1,471$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.94934.3%4 W · 89 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+75.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes1c1,432$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.352384.6%11 W · 227 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-34.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x63ff…d8cdbacked Yes1c1,412$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.66450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3302…79c0backed Yes1c1,400$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14570%0 W · 57 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes1c1,378$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1643212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bab…0fe5backed Yes1c1,371$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.975541.8%23 W · 32 L-5.6wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-34.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes1c1,360$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.11703.5%6 W · 164 L+0.6wins0.00per pick3cpaid+16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x624c…cdc7backed Yes2c1,350$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.632711.1%3 W · 24 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-46.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes1c1,332$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3221926.5%58 W · 161 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+76.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0233…5dd0backed Yes3c1,304$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.52128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid-53.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b96…0df2backed Yes1c1,292$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18300%0 W · 30 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1178…772fbacked Yes2c1,227$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick17cpaid-88.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc369…4e87backed Yes1c1,202$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.37726.9%5 W · 67 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-42.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x73f3…17ddbacked Yes1c1,171$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.01647.8%5 W · 59 L-0.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-44.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes1c1,149$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6312525.6%32 W · 93 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x051b…3469backed Yes1c1,134$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4d5…6418backed Yes1c1,093$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d6a…4073backed Yes2c1,000$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1790%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes1c999.94$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4180%0 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85f0…3bdbbacked Yes2c994.69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+181%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d51…6c59backed Yes2c963.17$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16254%1 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick4cpaid+76.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.