Middle East · resolved market

Will the US next strike Iran on February 9, 2026 (ET)?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x822876c98a1802ef3f2f33f7e480ae873f89c137ebfc0ede980565fedef998c5

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 12, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $3,494,378
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $756,512

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,494,378 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x14f6…15c4backed Yes	0c	910,292$910 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$910.29	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+1.5wins	+0.18per pick	19cpaid	+15%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x69a8…aba9backed Yes	0c	756,259$756 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$756.26	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.19per pick	33cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5eb…fad1backed Yes	0c	449,872$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$449.87	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe52a…a4f0backed Yes	0c	449,872$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$449.87	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x593d…7d5dbacked Yes	1c	50,000$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	42	14.3%6 W · 36 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes	2c	30,641$718 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$718.07	353	47%166 W · 187 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x45a2…3c01backed Yes	3c	26,815$735 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$734.95	33	15.2%5 W · 28 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-67.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes	1c	20,400$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.3	171	11.7%20 W · 151 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05c3…3f7fbacked Yes	3c	18,621$627 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$627.42	46	8.7%4 W · 42 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67d0…db7abacked Yes	1c	18,565$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.36	136	17.6%24 W · 112 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	+58.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9f0…42d1backed Yes	1c	18,095$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.8	44	0%0 W · 44 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3541…462ebacked Yes	2c	15,516$305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305.35	77	32.5%25 W · 52 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes	1c	15,000$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.77	86	7%6 W · 80 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes	1c	14,259$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.42	76	11.8%9 W · 67 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes	1c	13,389$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.91	222	27%60 W · 162 L	+17.8wins	+0.08per pick	19cpaid	+13%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes	0c	13,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	94	14.9%14 W · 80 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+86.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	12,712$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.21	1,558	7.2%112 W · 1,446 L	-35.1wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	12,452$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.87	713	5.6%40 W · 673 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11d5…1b17backed Yes	1c	12,246$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.07	38	7.9%3 W · 35 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81ab…ba97backed Yes	4c	11,631$522 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$522.24	73	30.1%22 W · 51 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaef…472abacked Yes	4c	11,111$389 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$388.89	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	58cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71ca…3501backed Yes	4c	11,111$389 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$388.88	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-17%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21c7…191abacked Yes	1c	10,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	75	20%15 W · 60 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes	2c	9,627$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.87	28	0%0 W · 28 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes	2c	9,343$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.32	432	12.5%54 W · 378 L	+11.0wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e9…1fc2backed Yes	6c	8,687$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed Yes	3c	8,383$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.53	82	47.6%39 W · 43 L	+8.2wins	+0.10per pick	38cpaid	+67.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc998…7849backed Yes	2c	8,295$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.61	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes	2c	8,052$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.02	126	38.1%48 W · 78 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f1…1c00backed Yes	2c	7,481$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes	1c	7,000$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	62	6.5%4 W · 58 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes	1c	6,600$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.6wins	+0.08per pick	5cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes	1c	6,000$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.6	76	10.5%8 W · 68 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…f440backed Yes	2c	6,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	23	4.3%1 W · 22 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	2c	5,928$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.72	199	5%10 W · 189 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd44e…8556backed Yes	2c	5,859$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.8	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	1c	5,728$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.58	247	6.9%17 W · 230 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes	1c	5,682$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.01	147	7.5%11 W · 136 L	+5.0wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	+31.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6286…f59cbacked Yes	3c	5,457$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.92	255	18%46 W · 209 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes	1c	5,420$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.27	144	2.8%4 W · 140 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cb0…3b3bbacked Yes	1c	5,089$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.05	68	4.4%3 W · 65 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	7cpaid	-87.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc75d…a3cdbacked Yes	1c	5,005$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.42	29	13.8%4 W · 25 L	+2.2wins	+0.08per pick	6cpaid	+163.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8102…d50abacked Yes	2c	5,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f9f…8680backed Yes	2c	5,000$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.97	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	8cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes	1c	5,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	362	27.9%101 W · 261 L	+11.6wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacd9…cb54backed Yes	3c	5,000$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	20	20%4 W · 16 L	+1.3wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6de5…3d0fbacked Yes	0c	5,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked Yes	2c	4,510$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.22	75	13.3%10 W · 65 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	4,408$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.13	419	5.3%22 W · 397 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	1c	4,371$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.57	462	5%23 W · 439 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7cbc…06fbbacked Yes	24c	4,325$1,049 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,049.12	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0527…20b1backed Yes	1c	4,098$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.25	115	1.7%2 W · 113 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	2cpaid	-78.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes	1c	3,626$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.35	189	29.1%55 W · 134 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	2c	3,390$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.05	116	15.5%18 W · 98 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-50%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccaa…705ebacked Yes	3c	3,356$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	24	0%0 W · 24 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe67…3932backed Yes	2c	3,277$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.28	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	10cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90d1…f62abacked Yes	1c	3,212$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.29	72	0%0 W · 72 L	-2.6wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed44…1082backed Yes	2c	3,190$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.14	61	1.6%1 W · 60 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	2cpaid	-76.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Yes	2c	3,133$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.96	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	-5.0wins	-0.17per pick	52cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xba32…deaabacked Yes	2c	3,125$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.51	38	2.6%1 W · 37 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdff3…7737backed Yes	1c	3,014$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc714…4141backed Yes	1c	3,000$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.98	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc043…eb1bbacked Yes	1c	3,000$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	55	41.8%23 W · 32 L	-3.1wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7a9…c840backed Yes	3c	2,907$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.8	56	44.6%25 W · 31 L	+4.3wins	+0.08per pick	37cpaid	+68.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb28…b1a2backed Yes	2c	2,858$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.38	117	30.8%36 W · 81 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x692d…97afbacked Yes	1c	2,759$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.59	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61f0…529ebacked Yes	3c	2,601$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.36	43	18.6%8 W · 35 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19e2…be9bbacked Yes	1c	2,500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	20	0%0 W · 20 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e34…c876backed Yes	2c	2,425$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x624c…cdc7backed Yes	1c	2,383$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.38	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-46.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x87ff…6632backed Yes	2c	2,321$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.01	39	25.6%10 W · 29 L	+3.5wins	+0.09per pick	17cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e0c…7899backed Yes	1c	2,301$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	25	8%2 W · 23 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3739…307fbacked Yes	1c	2,173$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.73	93	4.3%4 W · 89 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+75.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes	2c	2,080$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.39	281	26.3%74 W · 207 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6826…f19dbacked Yes	2c	2,066$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	36	2.8%1 W · 35 L	-2.8wins	-0.08per pick	10cpaid	-78.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x07c9…4fa3backed Yes	1c	2,051$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.54	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05ee…b9c9backed Yes	1c	2,000$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.49	96	5.2%5 W · 91 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeb9b…62ccbacked Yes	1c	2,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	77	26%20 W · 57 L	+6.5wins	+0.08per pick	17cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x51b8…1df6backed Yes	1c	2,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	-70.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes	2c	1,866$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.61	37	2.7%1 W · 36 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	3cpaid	-84.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a0c…7641backed Yes	2c	1,832$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.79	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee83…d382backed Yes	2c	1,707$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	31	0%0 W · 31 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbed9…82f6backed Yes	2c	1,695$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+1.3wins	+0.26per pick	14cpaid	+253.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x73f3…17ddbacked Yes	1c	1,691$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.68	64	7.8%5 W · 59 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xab44…a5b9backed Yes	1c	1,636$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc747…de65backed Yes	3c	1,599$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.3	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	2c	1,566$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.02	238	4.6%11 W · 227 L	-12.9wins	-0.05per pick	10cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes	3c	1,500$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	563	36.6%206 W · 357 L	+44.4wins	+0.08per pick	29cpaid	+37.7%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1cef…759ebacked Yes	2c	1,485$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.4	22	0%0 W · 22 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92f4…8f65backed Yes	2c	1,456$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.8	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f1f…8d6abacked Yes	1c	1,437$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0aa0…e6fdbacked Yes	3c	1,429$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.11per pick	29cpaid	+42.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3302…79c0backed Yes	1c	1,400$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	57	0%0 W · 57 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11d3…ce3fbacked Yes	2c	1,392$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+2.5wins	+0.25per pick	15cpaid	+41.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	2c	1,338$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.23	413	6.8%28 W · 385 L	-13.6wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	1c	1,284$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.11	170	3.5%6 W · 164 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc56…feddbacked Yes	1c	1,236$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3df7…f332backed Yes	3c	1,208$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.03	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+2.9wins	+0.21per pick	43cpaid	+57.2%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0c01…ad4bbacked Yes	2c	1,171$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x479a…e102backed Yes	3c	1,125$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will the US next strike Iran on February 9, 2026 (ET)?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event