TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc747…de65

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
37
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: UFC, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category UFC at 55 out of 100; worst Commodities at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$778Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$778
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$824Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$824.08
Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,500Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$1,042.37
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+303.9%+$610.84
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$3,570Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,569.84
Will Canada strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$5,392Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,392
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$1,346Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,346.04
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$2,198Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+69.9%+$1,537.49
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$2,016Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,016
Will Iran strike nine or more countries in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,500Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+39.7%+$595.17
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$1,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$1,500
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$2,736Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+155.8%+$4,261.44
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$4,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+26.6%+$1,063.29
Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$1,001Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+426.6%+$4,270.2
Will the US next strike Iran on February 9, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$45.3
All 18 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved May 2, 2026, EDT1070%7 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+18.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
UFC — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Carlos Prates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$271Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$240.32
UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Quillan Salkilld · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$56.41
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Charles Oliveira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$1,021.62
UFC 326: Reinier de Ridder vs. Caio Borralho (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Reinier de Ridder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST-100%-$95
UFC 326: Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Raul Rosas Jr. · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST+38.9%+$194.44
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Volkanovski · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+69.5%+$69.49
UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Fiziev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$120
UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Saint Denis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$50
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed O'Malley · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+53.8%+$53.85
UFC 324: Allen vs. Silva (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Allen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$50
All 10 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+48.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$515.15
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will George Russell win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,569Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,569
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.