Middle East · resolved market
Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5543e90b8899f1167f2812cc861dfe68c0ff23cce6f3e89e6550a096466a1e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $775,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $724,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $775,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 344 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfb7…ffb5backed No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8e…21b7backed Yes | 37c | 46,479$17,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,443.86 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 14c | 28,880$4,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,765.38 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b1…d3c9backed Yes | 17c | 27,746$4,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,118.55 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce0…792fbacked No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5854…3f2ebacked Yes | 15c | 13,210$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,210.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 15cpaid | +329.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9f…1981backed Yes | 15c | 12,010$1,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,169.44 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.51per pick | 29cpaid | +345.6%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb8…9d7bbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca4…f852backed No | 1c | 9,715$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89c1…ea0dbacked Yes | 25c | 9,155$2,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,847.95 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 6,616$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.81 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45a2…3c01backed No | 41c | 5,953$2,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,411.33 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc2…2f88backed Yes | 13c | 5,400$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,698.03 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 14cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…1fe0backed Yes | 19c | 5,345$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,344.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc747…de65backed Yes | 19c | 5,271$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,270.2 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…4ff6backed Yes | 14c | 5,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,300 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +6.4wins | +0.20per pick | 21cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb23…2fcabacked Yes | 15c | 3,595$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,040.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +548.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 3,456$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,720.56 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5f…11c5backed Yes | 13c | 3,404$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,948.81 | 143 | 25.9%37 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa806…74cbbacked Yes | 27c | 3,283$877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,405.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 50cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…612abacked Yes | 13c | 3,000$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,622.21 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 66c | 2,971$1,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,962.16 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…4737backed Yes | 23c | 2,794$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,161.45 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076a…d67abacked Yes | 32c | 2,789$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,895.74 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa83d…12ccbacked No | 2c | 2,770$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 20c | 2,674$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,135.28 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309f…b99cbacked Yes | 23c | 2,648$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,048.15 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed Yes | 12c | 2,592$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,281.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde7a…75e2backed No | 63c | 2,551$1,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,611.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…1bf2backed Yes | 41c | 2,435$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,435.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82c7…e125backed Yes | 21c | 2,345$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,844.79 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad14…34fdbacked Yes | 17c | 2,083$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,722.51 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.39per pick | 33cpaid | +119%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 21c | 2,036$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,612.38 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…fc02backed No | 1c | 2,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…94e7backed Yes | 20c | 1,995$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,596 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,904$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,599.5 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked Yes | 22c | 1,812$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,412.88 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fb…0255backed No | 20c | 1,784$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…2ecfbacked Yes | 14c | 1,665$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,424.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +593.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes | 55c | 1,633$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.01 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 11c | 1,566$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399.38 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb61…6032backed Yes | 13c | 1,563$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,362.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 6cpaid | +555.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbf…b0eebacked Yes | 26c | 1,500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110.18 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 19c | 1,446$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.12 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…c840backed Yes | 22c | 1,443$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120.01 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 18c | 1,434$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175.71 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 65c | 1,428$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.91 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…c968backed No | 1c | 1,412$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba4…877dbacked Yes | 18c | 1,401$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150.9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.43per pick | 28cpaid | +169%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43a8…73e0backed Yes | 17c | 1,348$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,116.26 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4489…e723backed Yes | 37c | 1,346$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +169.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b5…8ad0backed Yes | 19c | 1,300$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,055.97 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5088…7985backed Yes | 32c | 1,294$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 23c | 1,280$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.68 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 23c | 1,276$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.29 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…1249backed Yes | 16c | 1,170$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 9c | 1,122$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.78 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 21c | 1,111$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.68 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…845fbacked Yes | 18c | 1,110$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3e…346abacked Yes | 20c | 1,107$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.44 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.49per pick | 34cpaid | +259.8%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9704…8e26backed Yes | 12c | 1,083$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.33 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe276…761fbacked Yes | 23c | 1,078$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +331.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74b4…6beabacked Yes | 16c | 1,077$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.32 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc924…a554backed Yes | 19c | 1,052$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 19cpaid | +201.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae52…405cbacked Yes | 19c | 1,032$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.32 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc566…2e14backed Yes | 20c | 1,023$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +43%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69a1…379abacked Yes | 10c | 1,015$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +887.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a2…a0b1backed Yes | 20c | 1,004$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.74 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +4.1wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +476.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x53f4…0e38backed Yes | 27c | 999.12$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.73 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +229.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 3c | 997.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 17c | 965.61$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.77 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 11c | 950$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.1 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…3673backed Yes | 14c | 943.43$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.94 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f4…e02fbacked Yes | 20c | 940.87$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +394.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd984…83acbacked Yes | 9c | 925.28$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.53per pick | 14cpaid | +610.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x12c8…3f4cbacked Yes | 11c | 916.51$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +584.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 17c | 899.94$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.65 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 19c | 841.99$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.98 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 75c | 834$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.67 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -6.1wins | -0.47per pick | 62cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc2…fab2backed Yes | 7c | 824$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,328.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3739…307fbacked Yes | 9c | 802.02$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.84 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe98f…3b8abacked Yes | 12c | 800$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 16c | 799.99$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.99 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ca…2e0abacked No | 78c | 797$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.67 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 15c | 796.83$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.94 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x018c…9794backed No | 77c | 781.45$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 10c | 768.67$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.85 | 118 | 18.6%22 W · 96 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 9c | 760.7$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.56 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9bb…8dd3backed Yes | 15c | 757.94$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +229.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5930…236abacked No | 18c | 757.44$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.39 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd3…6e70backed Yes | 17c | 754.99$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.58 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x176a…531abacked Yes | 13c | 736.92$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +644.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…e542backed Yes | 20c | 724.73$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.28 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +7.3wins | +0.22per pick | 43cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 6c | 706.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1baa…6eb3backed No | 7c | 700$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +5.6wins | +0.17per pick | 10cpaid | +196.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 22c | 700$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x495b…47b6backed Yes | 29c | 691.2$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…88a7backed Yes | 20c | 689$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.25 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +5.8wins | +0.26per pick | 15cpaid | +159.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 66c | 659.16$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.71 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)?this page
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 10, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 11, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 12, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 13, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 14, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 15, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 16, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 17, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 18, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 19, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 21, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 22, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 23, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 24, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 25, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 26, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 27, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 28, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 29, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 3, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 30, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 31, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 4, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 5, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 7, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 8, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 9, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US not strike Iran by March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.