TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$775,328
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$724,203

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $775,328 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 344 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbfb7…ffb5backed No0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f8e…21b7backed Yes37c46,479$17,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,443.861060%6 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+62.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes14c28,880$4,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,765.3836227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40b1…d3c9backed Yes17c27,746$4,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,118.553737.8%14 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ce0…792fbacked No0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5854…3f2ebacked Yes15c13,210$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,210.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick15cpaid+329.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa9f…1981backed Yes15c12,010$1,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,169.44580%4 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.51per pick29cpaid+345.6%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x3eb8…9d7bbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101010%1 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-78.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaca4…f852backed No1c9,715$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1362927.6%8 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x89c1…ea0dbacked Yes25c9,155$2,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,847.95238.7%2 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-76.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No1c6,616$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.815071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45a2…3c01backed No41c5,953$2,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,411.333315.2%5 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-67.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc2…2f88backed Yes13c5,400$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,698.032330.4%7 W · 16 L+3.8wins+0.17per pick14cpaid+48.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2a9b…1fe0backed Yes19c5,345$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,344.83333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+78.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc747…de65backed Yes19c5,271$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,270.21838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e0b…4ff6backed Yes14c5,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,3003240.6%13 W · 19 L+6.4wins+0.20per pick21cpaid+100.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xeb23…2fcabacked Yes15c3,595$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,040.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+548.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes21c3,456$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,720.5689617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9b5f…11c5backed Yes13c3,404$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,948.8114325.9%37 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa806…74cbbacked Yes27c3,283$877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,405.25616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick50cpaid-37.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x06c2…612abacked Yes13c3,000$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,622.211612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-42%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No66c2,971$1,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,962.161520%3 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd425…4737backed Yes23c2,794$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,161.451233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-23%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x076a…d67abacked Yes32c2,789$894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,895.741050%5 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+78.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa83d…12ccbacked No2c2,770$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes20c2,674$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,135.2845843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x309f…b99cbacked Yes23c2,648$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,048.151741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2205…8089backed Yes12c2,592$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,281.25633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid+60.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde7a…75e2backed No63c2,551$1,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,611.9320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b9d…1bf2backed Yes41c2,435$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,435.5862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82c7…e125backed Yes21c2,345$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,844.792920.7%6 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad14…34fdbacked Yes17c2,083$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,722.51771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.39per pick33cpaid+119%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes21c2,036$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,612.3835347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c46…fc02backed No1c2,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2496…94e7backed Yes20c1,995$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,596425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3541…462ebacked Yes16c1,904$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,599.57732.5%25 W · 52 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8597…daeebacked Yes22c1,812$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,412.888359%49 W · 34 L+0.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1fb…0255backed No20c1,784$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.24560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9a2…2ecfbacked Yes14c1,665$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,424.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.86per pick14cpaid+593.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes55c1,633$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743.019736.1%35 W · 62 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes11c1,566$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,399.3818929.1%55 W · 134 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb61…6032backed Yes13c1,563$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,362.96540%2 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick6cpaid+555.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2bbf…b0eebacked Yes26c1,500$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,110.181118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick12cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes20c1,500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,20038237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No19c1,446$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.124928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a9…c840backed Yes22c1,443$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,120.015644.6%25 W · 31 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+68.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x37b2…8681backed Yes18c1,434$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,175.713450%17 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No65c1,428$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932.9129254.8%160 W · 132 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1236…c968backed No1c1,412$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ba4…877dbacked Yes18c1,401$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,150.9771.4%5 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.43per pick28cpaid+169%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x43a8…73e0backed Yes17c1,348$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,116.26955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+85.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4489…e723backed Yes37c1,346$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$846.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+169.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3b5…8ad0backed Yes19c1,300$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,055.973910.3%4 W · 35 L+0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid+15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5088…7985backed Yes32c1,294$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$885.63250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+58.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x300c…6a92backed Yes23c1,280$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$985.6819449.5%96 W · 98 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes23c1,276$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$988.2913419.4%26 W · 108 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-40.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d58…1249backed Yes16c1,170$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$984.2425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+57.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes9c1,122$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,024.787135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes21c1,111$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$877.6814039.3%55 W · 85 L+20.0wins+0.14per pick25cpaid+63.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x4673…845fbacked Yes18c1,110$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$909.9475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick40cpaid+119.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d3e…346abacked Yes20c1,107$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$885.44683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.49per pick34cpaid+259.8%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x9704…8e26backed Yes12c1,083$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$953.333116.1%5 W · 26 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-38.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe276…761fbacked Yes23c1,078$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$827.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+331.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74b4…6beabacked Yes16c1,077$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$909.322638.5%10 W · 16 L+2.7wins+0.11per pick28cpaid-6.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc924…a554backed Yes19c1,052$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$855.19366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick19cpaid+201.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xae52…405cbacked Yes19c1,032$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.322524%6 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc566…2e14backed Yes20c1,023$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814.48650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+43%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x69a1…379abacked Yes10c1,015$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+887.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x29a2…a0b1backed Yes20c1,004$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$803.745100%5 W · 0 L+4.1wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+476.8%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x53f4…0e38backed Yes27c999.12$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$732.73966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+229.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xecaa…34d2backed No3c997.15$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251250%6 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+30.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes17c965.61$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$797.776219.4%12 W · 50 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick15cpaid-51.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed Yes11c950$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$842.18552.9%45 W · 40 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xece7…3673backed Yes14c943.43$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$808.945961%36 W · 23 L+5.0wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+15.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe0f4…e02fbacked Yes20c940.87$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$750.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+394.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd984…83acbacked Yes9c925.28$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843666.7%4 W · 2 L+3.2wins+0.53per pick14cpaid+610.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x12c8…3f4cbacked Yes11c916.51$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$819.55450%2 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+584.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes17c899.94$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$750.651457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+40.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No19c841.99$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.9815625%39 W · 117 L+17.9wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+79.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x520b…100abacked No75c834$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.671315.4%2 W · 11 L-6.1wins-0.47per pick62cpaid-73.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x6fc2…fab2backed Yes7c824$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.93per pick7cpaid+1,328.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3739…307fbacked Yes9c802.02$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.84934.3%4 W · 89 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+75.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe98f…3b8abacked Yes12c800$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes16c799.99$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.994223.8%10 W · 32 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8ca…2e0abacked No78c797$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.67130%0 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa1a5…d228backed No15c796.83$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.944827.1%13 W · 35 L+7.0wins+0.15per pick13cpaid+72.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x018c…9794backed No77c781.45$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No10c768.67$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.8511818.6%22 W · 96 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick13cpaid-30.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes9c760.7$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.564625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9bb…8dd3backed Yes15c757.94$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+229.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5930…236abacked No18c757.44$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.393525.7%9 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd3…6e70backed Yes17c754.99$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.582941.4%12 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+72.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x176a…531abacked Yes13c736.92$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+644.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3272…e542backed Yes20c724.73$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.283464.7%22 W · 12 L+7.3wins+0.22per pick43cpaid+59.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No6c706.83$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.644136.8%28 W · 385 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1baa…6eb3backed No7c700$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493327.3%9 W · 24 L+5.6wins+0.17per pick10cpaid+196.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes22c700$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54328126.3%74 W · 207 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x495b…47b6backed Yes29c691.2$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.65366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+82.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef60…88a7backed Yes20c689$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.252240.9%9 W · 13 L+5.8wins+0.26per pick15cpaid+159.2%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No66c659.16$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.7120749.3%102 W · 105 L-23.0wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-24.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.