Middle East · resolved market
Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5354a2c31fb09cbd45d2ce6aba4d65c2b4fcb778e4702d8079025338f9ab3141
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,313,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,655,780
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,313,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 287 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x939a…6f9abacked Yes | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…3690backed Yes | 0c | 115,000$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc511…4baebacked Yes | 0c | 114,000$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b0…78f7backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe29…67abbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x964e…2971backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdb…74bcbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf05…24a2backed Yes | 0c | 99,000$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e2…2093backed Yes | 1c | 62,365$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.03 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +109.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…ba97backed Yes | 3c | 60,241$1,676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,675.82 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 0c | 57,127$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 218 | 31.2%68 W · 150 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf607…7ca0backed Yes | 0c | 50,210$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb238…d5bdbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb09…c415backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb6…1eacbacked Yes | 0c | 49,000$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97b3…6fd7backed Yes | 0c | 41,125$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…080abacked Yes | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc171…4b4fbacked Yes | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.20per pick | 7cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b7…9098backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x572f…e64dbacked Yes | 1c | 28,796$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 28,476$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.37 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb640…7bd4backed Yes | 0c | 28,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa202…9b12backed Yes | 0c | 26,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8e…a6f7backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1d…169dbacked Yes | 0c | 21,120$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd4…0796backed Yes | 2c | 20,787$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.84 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +148.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…91e4backed Yes | 0c | 20,750$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9150…26f4backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d07…4243backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10c8…5decbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b16…f985backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5d…1ad2backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…cf66backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06b9…98a0backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a3…64d2backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 3cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c2…2ac2backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59b2…b1b9backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c2…1523backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x898f…7308backed Yes | 0c | 19,981$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5763…22b7backed Yes | 0c | 18,700$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e17…7151backed Yes | 3c | 18,259$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.51 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes | 2c | 18,046$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.92 | 86 | 7%6 W · 80 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 1c | 17,190$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.23 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe702…80fdbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -49%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67cd…b401backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 14,914$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.27 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3739…307fbacked Yes | 0c | 14,677$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.98 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ce…73d9backed Yes | 0c | 14,370$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad01…d274backed Yes | 3c | 13,000$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.99 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 4c | 12,087$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.61 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce0f…5d37backed Yes | 5c | 11,972$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.56 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x151a…ee54backed Yes | 1c | 11,191$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 3c | 11,180$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.35 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 11,008$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.21 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…a1edbacked Yes | 5c | 10,792$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +51%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…d7dcbacked Yes | 3c | 10,175$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.14 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9e…d473backed Yes | 0c | 10,020$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0b…01a4backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 27cpaid | +114%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f3…e8a3backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x990f…c8a6backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6690…aa67backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x613d…621bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc3…1453backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 44cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb7…ffb5backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827e…e4cfbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x159d…a398backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe235…1c42backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fde…095bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc357…6646backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca0…7046backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0949…4eb9backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17f…938cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…efa2backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb8…9d7bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb48f…1162backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa092…0bf2backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda5b…725bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8571…536dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0f…e9e9backed Yes | 0c | 9,163$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbfb…6178backed Yes | 7c | 9,013$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.44 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…96cabacked Yes | 3c | 8,229$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.94 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 3c | 7,943$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.67 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 6c | 7,905$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.08 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc410…9201backed Yes | 6c | 7,827$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.66 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…413cbacked Yes | 0c | 7,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37d1…4e28backed Yes | 3c | 7,135$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.6 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.30per pick | 23cpaid | +184.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x270d…5ff2backed Yes | 3c | 7,129$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.62 | 67 | 22.4%15 W · 52 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 1c | 6,723$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 4c | 6,093$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.74 | 120 | 23.3%28 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 6,022$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.76 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed4c…5e15backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…3be9backed Yes | 1c | 5,938$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.43 | 157 | 43.9%69 W · 88 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x798c…7bcabacked Yes | 1c | 5,661$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 5cpaid | +266.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd754…8e70backed Yes | 9c | 5,594$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.51 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c1…ea0dbacked Yes | 6c | 5,505$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.71 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9671…a0c6backed Yes | 4c | 5,213$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6732…d7f0backed Yes | 10c | 5,075$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.93 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +447.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x53f8…fe9fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 8c | 5,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.84 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 3c | 5,000$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.99 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)?this page
- Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)?Yes won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 10, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 11, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 12, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 13, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 14, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 15, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 16, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 17, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 18, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 19, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 21, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 22, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 23, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 24, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 25, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 26, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 27, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 28, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 29, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 3, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 30, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 31, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 4, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 5, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 7, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 8, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 9, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US not strike Iran by March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.