TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,313,911
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,655,780

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,313,911 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 287 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x939a…6f9abacked Yes0c200,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-66.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5cf…3690backed Yes0c115,000$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1151118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick11cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc511…4baebacked Yes0c114,000$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x15b0…78f7backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001050%5 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-16.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe29…67abbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x964e…2971backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bdb…74bcbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf05…24a2backed Yes0c99,000$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2e2…2093backed Yes1c62,365$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.032213.6%3 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick8cpaid+109.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x81ab…ba97backed Yes3c60,241$1,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,675.827330.1%22 W · 51 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes0c57,127$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7821831.2%68 W · 150 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf607…7ca0backed Yes0c50,210$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb238…d5bdbacked Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502010%2 W · 18 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-81.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb09…c415backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-51.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bb6…1eacbacked Yes0c49,000$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97b3…6fd7backed Yes0c41,125$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81a9…080abacked Yes0c40,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402429.2%7 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+34.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc171…4b4fbacked Yes0c40,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401526.7%4 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.20per pick7cpaid+65.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc1b7…9098backed Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-50.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x572f…e64dbacked Yes1c28,796$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001520%3 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-32.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c28,476$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.375071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb640…7bd4backed Yes0c28,000$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281010%1 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-87.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa202…9b12backed Yes0c26,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-49.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d8e…a6f7backed Yes0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f1d…169dbacked Yes0c21,120$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.12333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+33.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cd4…0796backed Yes2c20,787$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.842020%4 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+148.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4c1…91e4backed Yes0c20,750$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9150…26f4backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204015%6 W · 34 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-57.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d07…4243backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10c8…5decbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b16…f985backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick12cpaid-65.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d5d…1ad2backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-46.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ec4…cf66backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06b9…98a0backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a3…64d2backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick3cpaid-10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05c2…2ac2backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59b2…b1b9backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-68.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42c2…1523backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x898f…7308backed Yes0c19,981$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9890%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5763…22b7backed Yes0c18,700$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e17…7151backed Yes3c18,259$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.514513.3%6 W · 39 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick8cpaid-7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes2c18,046$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.92867%6 W · 80 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-23.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes1c17,190$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.2336227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe702…80fdbacked Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid-49%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67cd…b401backed Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c14,914$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.277135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3739…307fbacked Yes0c14,677$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.98934.3%4 W · 89 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+75.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ce…73d9backed Yes0c14,370$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad01…d274backed Yes3c13,000$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.991457.1%8 W · 6 L+3.1wins+0.22per pick35cpaid+28%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes4c12,087$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.611995%10 W · 189 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xce0f…5d37backed Yes5c11,972$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.563732.4%12 W · 25 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick24cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x151a…ee54backed Yes1c11,191$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes3c11,180$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.3513419.4%26 W · 108 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-40.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c11,008$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.211,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff91…a1edbacked Yes5c10,792$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002231.8%7 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+51%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c02…d7dcbacked Yes3c10,175$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.14240%0 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa9e…d473backed Yes0c10,020$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c0b…01a4backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick27cpaid+114%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x46f3…e8a3backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x990f…c8a6backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10340%0 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6690…aa67backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1060%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x613d…621bbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fc3…1453backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick44cpaid+68.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfb7…ffb5backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1060%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x827e…e4cfbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x159d…a398backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe235…1c42backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fde…095bbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc357…6646backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1070%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdca0…7046backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0949…4eb9backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd17f…938cbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f8d…efa2backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick28cpaid-58.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3eb8…9d7bbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101010%1 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-78.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb48f…1162backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa092…0bf2backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid+10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda5b…725bbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8571…536dbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf0f…e9e9backed Yes0c9,163$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.863627.8%10 W · 26 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-47.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbbfb…6178backed Yes7c9,013$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.44714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick8cpaid-26.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe361…96cabacked Yes3c8,229$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.94190%0 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6286…f59cbacked Yes3c7,943$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.6725518%46 W · 209 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-26.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes6c7,905$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.0837740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc410…9201backed Yes6c7,827$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.66137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+59.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1aa2…413cbacked Yes0c7,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37d1…4e28backed Yes3c7,135$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.61752.9%9 W · 8 L+5.1wins+0.30per pick23cpaid+184.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x270d…5ff2backed Yes3c7,129$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.626722.4%15 W · 52 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+76.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes1c6,723$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2522227%60 W · 162 L+17.8wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes4c6,093$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.7412023.3%28 W · 92 L+10.9wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+3.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes3c6,022$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.764625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed4c…5e15backed Yes0c6,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-74%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf59f…3be9backed Yes1c5,938$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4315743.9%69 W · 88 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x798c…7bcabacked Yes1c5,661$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.972114.3%3 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick5cpaid+266.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd754…8e70backed Yes9c5,594$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.51277.4%2 W · 25 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-75.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x89c1…ea0dbacked Yes6c5,505$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.71238.7%2 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-76.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9671…a0c6backed Yes4c5,213$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6732…d7f0backed Yes10c5,075$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.932450%12 W · 12 L+4.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+447.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x53f8…fe9fbacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes8c5,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.8417018.2%31 W · 139 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+77.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes3c5,000$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.9917111.7%20 W · 151 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.