Middle East · resolved market
Will the US not strike Iran by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdcb86ac1c6bb148d6b6b05eb0fbf30b5aa98f84b3adad0a5879c795ebbdd4aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $344,680
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $321,423
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $344,680 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 214 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 65c | 51,318$33,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,266.46 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8e…21b7backed Yes | 45c | 50,549$22,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,703.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45a2…3c01backed Yes | 26c | 20,937$5,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,425.02 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 43c | 14,041$6,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,012.88 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9f…1981backed Yes | 63c | 11,785$7,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,465.26 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.51per pick | 29cpaid | +345.6%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x309f…b99cbacked Yes | 52c | 7,756$4,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,015.79 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc0…25f8backed No | 64c | 4,765$3,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,711.76 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 73cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed Yes | 58c | 3,940$2,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,267.15 | 115 | 59.1%68 W · 47 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 65c | 3,830$2,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,324.34 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a67…df6fbacked Yes | 67c | 3,187$2,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,121.52 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa806…74cbbacked Yes | 55c | 3,080$1,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,688.52 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 50cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Yes | 60c | 3,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 2,618$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 53c | 2,516$1,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,179.22 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 47c | 2,202$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.06 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 37c | 2,143$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.31 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 49c | 2,138$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088.26 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 43c | 1,966$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.57 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 56c | 1,590$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.79 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 66c | 1,520$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…9d4bbacked Yes | 42c | 1,446$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2e…4fc3backed Yes | 52c | 1,437$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9b…cf47backed Yes | 40c | 1,380$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 57c | 1,338$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.31 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 53c | 1,310$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.46 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 46c | 1,231$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.05 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…bbf0backed Yes | 62c | 1,165$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.3 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 43c | 1,120$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.17 | 155 | 23.2%36 W · 119 L | +12.1wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6810…38a3backed No | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…4f81backed Yes | 64c | 999.97$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.89 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x941b…e07dbacked Yes | 52c | 997.78$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.51 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…5d90backed Yes | 61c | 978.26$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.74 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.24per pick | 41cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x721f…7740backed No | 60c | 900$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccb…206dbacked No | 34c | 890.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +196.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 47c | 883$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.67 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -6.1wins | -0.47per pick | 62cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed Yes | 50c | 849.99$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.53 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -9.1wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -22%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0262…a9d2backed No | 62c | 800$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.4 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x354c…b301backed Yes | 63c | 795$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.85 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Yes | 40c | 739.03$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.61 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…19fdbacked No | 58c | 724.14$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +145.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 64c | 679.19$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.91 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 65c | 667.39$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.72 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked No | 61c | 650$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.5 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6c…741fbacked Yes | 41c | 620.74$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.89 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 35c | 617.63$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.61 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…02c0backed No | 33c | 600$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6f…14a4backed Yes | 65c | 600$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.44 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 41c | 599.97$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.89 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…aad3backed Yes | 42c | 568.2$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -9.8wins | -0.43per pick | 64cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x231e…9297backed Yes | 38c | 542.85$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.98 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed Yes | 67c | 536$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.12 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 4c | 534.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 5c | 527.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a8…73e0backed Yes | 44c | 520$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked Yes | 37c | 507.93$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.02 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 40c | 475.87$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.6 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 60c | 451.7$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.02 | 138 | 29%40 W · 98 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…9cefbacked No | 38c | 432$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.84 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9419…a40fbacked No | 43c | 430.32$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.32 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa87a…5403backed Yes | 50c | 414.99$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec7b…dc40backed Yes | 64c | 410.31$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +264.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…8fafbacked No | 60c | 406.67$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 54c | 400.92$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.59 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x130f…fc43backed Yes | 62c | 378$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4f…3b33backed No | 38c | 378$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.36 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed No | 37c | 377.87$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.06 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ad7fbacked Yes | 55c | 373.76$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044a…7e1fbacked Yes | 37c | 364.89$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aec…fdafbacked No | 37c | 358$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.54 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +4.5wins | +0.30per pick | 43cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa372…88fdbacked Yes | 23c | 347.22$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.97 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.25per pick | 31cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb9…6f7abacked No | 63c | 343.5$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.03 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3329…2f5cbacked Yes | 40c | 340.06$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 67 | 7.5%5 W · 62 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b4…6beabacked No | 61c | 340$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.14 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 42c | 306.21$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.25 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0164…9ed6backed Yes | 40c | 300$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.26per pick | 57cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x952b…edfabacked No | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 64 | 75%48 W · 16 L | +12.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +50%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5930…236abacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c9…a644backed No | 39c | 300$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 5c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51d…1578backed Yes | 23c | 299.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe04…08cabacked Yes | 38c | 299.69$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 58c | 299.38$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.81 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x984f…a8b5backed Yes | 41c | 289.66$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.66 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -4.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x46e2…f8bbbacked Yes | 51c | 285.74$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.68 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…9b7ebacked No | 63c | 278.62$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 60c | 277.81$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.86 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd7…96d3backed Yes | 27c | 277.26$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.41 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…4557backed No | 41c | 246.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 23c | 241$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.43 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde1c…fb66backed Yes | 68c | 233.82$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +92.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4662…4d26backed Yes | 65c | 231.95$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.77 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb412…19abbacked Yes | 52c | 226.16$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed No | 50c | 221.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.89 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x811f…16e3backed Yes | 39c | 204.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.95 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 33c | 201.11$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.16 | 242 | 24.4%59 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US not strike Iran by March 31, 2026?this page
- Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)?Yes won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 10, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 11, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 12, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 13, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 14, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 15, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 16, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 17, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 18, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 19, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 21, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 22, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 23, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 24, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 25, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 26, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 27, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 28, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 29, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 3, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 30, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 31, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 4, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 5, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 7, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 8, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 9, 2026 (ET)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.