Middle East · resolved market
Will the US next strike Iran on March 13, 2026 (ET)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb019d411dfee710c4f16c18a1f6237fe51acf55a9f6a1e4f94721e79321a6600
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $373,247
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $173,055
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $373,247 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2e2…2093backed Yes | 1c | 68,589$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.68 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +109.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcda…2873backed Yes | 0c | 57,076$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.08 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 2c | 38,370$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.16 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes | 2c | 14,841$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.3 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e17…7151backed Yes | 4c | 11,568$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x990f…c8a6backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 2c | 9,870$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.86 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 2c | 5,956$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.58 | 155 | 23.2%36 W · 119 L | +12.1wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…e0ffbacked Yes | 2c | 5,618$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.08 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 86 | 7%6 W · 80 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 4,654$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.87 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 4,216$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.22 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 2c | 2,723$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.03 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,635$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 2c | 2,380$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 2c | 2,007$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,978$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 1,937$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba32…deaabacked Yes | 2c | 1,724$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5582…ec6ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,570$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 19cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,423$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…da3fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,327$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 2c | 1,282$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 2c | 1,177$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f3…6653backed Yes | 2c | 1,152$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,141$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 2c | 1,133$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 120 | 23.3%28 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…a1ffbacked Yes | 1c | 1,063$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5893…618abacked Yes | 1c | 999.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +173.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 936.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ba…fa03backed Yes | 2c | 824$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +292.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…89bbbacked Yes | 2c | 808.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5007…eddabacked Yes | 3c | 736.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c17…6a7ebacked Yes | 2c | 699.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3329…2f5cbacked Yes | 2c | 691.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 7.5%5 W · 62 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 683.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9704…8e26backed Yes | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3739…307fbacked Yes | 2c | 592.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…01a3backed Yes | 2c | 586$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62e1…6944backed Yes | 2c | 494.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaae7…605fbacked Yes | 2c | 492.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9724…fbc7backed Yes | 3c | 382.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 76 | 10.5%8 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 13, 2026 (ET)?this page
- Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)?Yes won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 10, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 11, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 12, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 14, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 15, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 16, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 17, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 18, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 19, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 21, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 22, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 23, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 24, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 25, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 26, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 27, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 28, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 29, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 3, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 30, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 31, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 4, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 5, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 7, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 8, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 9, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US not strike Iran by March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.