Middle East · resolved market
Will the US next strike Iran on March 11, 2026 (ET)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd405f981b8ccbdc43784ec16cf2fc7978e05f745e69d1c5210d52edd33ddd0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $377,029
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $149,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $377,029 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 1c | 32,695$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.05 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 1c | 28,700$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.05 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes | 1c | 15,000$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.03 | 86 | 7%6 W · 80 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5e…8054backed Yes | 1c | 13,748$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcda…2873backed Yes | 0c | 13,202$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 1c | 13,057$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.68 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83e0…53e6backed Yes | 1c | 11,930$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.24 | 82 | 30.5%25 W · 57 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 10,421$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.27 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x990f…c8a6backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0262…a9d2backed Yes | 1c | 9,990$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.08 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ca…2e0abacked Yes | 1c | 6,877$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.14 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb28…b1a2backed Yes | 1c | 5,519$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 117 | 30.8%36 W · 81 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcff4…8b0ebacked Yes | 0c | 4,895$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a3…9e5cbacked Yes | 2c | 4,892$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1847…6a63backed Yes | 1c | 4,857$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.57 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,694$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1de7…1e31backed Yes | 0c | 4,661$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -96.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 1c | 4,027$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…e0ffbacked Yes | 1c | 3,936$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 1c | 3,448$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7351…d0e8backed Yes | 1c | 3,306$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…7aafbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 94 | 10.6%10 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…67f5backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba32…deaabacked Yes | 1c | 2,793$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e27…3193backed Yes | 1c | 2,790$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 35 | 0%0 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…d7dcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,788$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e17…7151backed Yes | 1c | 2,763$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…3149backed Yes | 0c | 2,731$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 7cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f67…de01backed Yes | 1c | 2,524$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0527…20b1backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 115 | 1.7%2 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 2,306$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x701a…7c76backed Yes | 1c | 2,144$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b99…1dd2backed Yes | 1c | 2,138$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…b9c9backed Yes | 1c | 2,017$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 96 | 5.2%5 W · 91 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 1c | 1,733$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,724$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe520…e4e3backed Yes | 1c | 1,204$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5126…da91backed Yes | 1c | 1,095$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.27per pick | 20cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f3…6653backed Yes | 1c | 1,069$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaae7…605fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,047$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01f…574ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +8.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3329…2f5cbacked Yes | 2c | 889.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 7.5%5 W · 62 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 11, 2026 (ET)?this page
- Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)?Yes won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 10, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 12, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 13, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 14, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 15, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 16, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 17, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 18, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 19, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 21, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 22, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 23, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 24, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 25, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 26, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 27, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 28, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 29, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 3, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 30, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 31, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 4, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 5, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 7, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 8, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 9, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US not strike Iran by March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.