TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$673,324
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$357,424

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $673,324 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb238…d5bdbacked Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502010%2 W · 18 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-81.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes2c48,895$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.7836227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcda…2873backed Yes0c44,178$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.18263.8%1 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-60.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2e2…2093backed Yes0c39,990$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.982213.6%3 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick8cpaid+109.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes4c25,178$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.7337740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x572f…e64dbacked Yes0c24,703$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001520%3 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-32.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d5d…1ad2backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-46.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e17…7151backed Yes3c12,187$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.644513.3%6 W · 39 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick8cpaid-7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3541…462ebacked Yes3c11,786$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.777732.5%25 W · 52 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c11,785$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.745071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes2c10,652$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.7315523.2%36 W · 119 L+12.1wins+0.08per pick15cpaid+64.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x22e3…5d1dbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x990f…c8a6backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10340%0 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c02…d7dcbacked Yes3c9,646$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.8240%0 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c9,458$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.827135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes3c7,473$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.736219.4%12 W · 50 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick15cpaid-51.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3739…307fbacked Yes0c6,062$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.53934.3%4 W · 89 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+75.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes2c5,995$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.8917111.7%20 W · 151 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes1c5,970$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.52626.5%4 W · 58 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick9cpaid+10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40f1…15f9backed Yes5c5,841$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004526.7%12 W · 33 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-28.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes3c5,841$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.791995%10 W · 189 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f23…90dbbacked Yes3c5,034$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.353112.9%4 W · 27 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-71.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50867%6 W · 80 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-23.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6810…38a3backed Yes3c4,605$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.351428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick17cpaid-33.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes3c4,092$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.9310435.6%37 W · 67 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes3c3,866$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.8815234.2%52 W · 100 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes3c3,409$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.0213419.4%26 W · 108 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-40.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c3,291$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.251,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b9e…d704backed Yes6c3,272$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1811910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick7cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48d6…1556backed Yes1c3,235$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423517.1%6 W · 29 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+42.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1de7…1e31backed Yes0c3,206$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.39372.7%1 W · 36 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick10cpaid-96.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d57…e0ffbacked Yes3c3,064$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.466028.3%17 W · 43 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c2,919$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.434625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf7e…b52dbacked Yes3c2,591$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.85616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick8cpaid-44.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1307…bd75backed Yes5c2,575$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-66.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf91a…4ea7backed Yes1c2,509$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2560%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadd1…a4a3backed Yes4c2,502$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005630.4%17 W · 39 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x05c8…5945backed Yes4c2,381$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.684139%16 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b97…3241backed Yes3c2,251$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9280%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes1c2,063$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4422227%60 W · 162 L+17.8wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfb3a…deaabacked Yes1c2,040$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172630.8%8 W · 18 L+5.0wins+0.19per pick11cpaid+105.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xac64…0dd2backed Yes3c2,000$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.282910.3%3 W · 26 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick7cpaid-37.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba32…deaabacked Yes3c2,000$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.69382.6%1 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1240…1468backed Yes5c1,973$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes3c1,969$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.662438.2%20 W · 223 L+0.4wins0.00per pick8cpaid-47.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x983b…09c4backed Yes3c1,933$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503732.4%12 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94e4…534abacked Yes1c1,700$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19702.9%2 W · 68 L-0.2wins0.00per pick3cpaid-89.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef60…88a7backed Yes3c1,689$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.882240.9%9 W · 13 L+5.8wins+0.26per pick15cpaid+159.2%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xc63b…da3fbacked Yes2c1,666$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6911153.2%59 W · 52 L+11.8wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+45.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd7ee…0e97backed Yes4c1,632$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.666045%27 W · 33 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick51cpaid+4.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes2c1,605$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.153717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes3c1,551$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2248630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3b5…8ad0backed Yes4c1,500$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.13910.3%4 W · 35 L+0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid+15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5126…da91backed Yes1c1,247$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111546.7%7 W · 8 L+4.0wins+0.27per pick20cpaid+63.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes1c1,241$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.362282.6%6 W · 222 L+0.6wins0.00per pick2cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes3c1,232$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.984195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes3c1,227$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.984136.8%28 W · 385 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a81…420fbacked Yes5c1,222$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60362.8%1 W · 35 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-77.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5007…eddabacked Yes3c1,209$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.572114.3%3 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes4c1,106$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8213829%40 W · 98 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid+7.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7f3…6653backed Yes3c1,103$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.944012.5%5 W · 35 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick5cpaid-14.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes3c1,067$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9611320.4%23 W · 90 L+10.2wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-19.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7a7d…7e77backed Yes3c1,024$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352941.4%12 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+107.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdcd4…5b42backed Yes1c1,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.884511.1%5 W · 40 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-84.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a40…599ebacked Yes2c889.59$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2323.1%1 W · 31 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick4cpaid+47.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf964…6e97backed Yes2c882.35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151921.1%4 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick12cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e73…d43fbacked Yes3c876.22$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.16911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-74.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes3c871.94$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1528126.3%74 W · 207 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes2c741.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.851703.5%6 W · 164 L+0.6wins0.00per pick3cpaid+16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes4c708$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1412525.6%32 W · 93 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c17…6a7ebacked Yes2c699.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.54634.8%16 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-32.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64db…89bbbacked Yes4c661.25$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286633.3%22 W · 44 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x44b7…a5d2backed Yes3c654.7$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.11827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-41.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7524…de23backed Yes3c647.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5893…618abacked Yes2c643.07$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.722040%8 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+173.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f25…d234backed Yes4c567.56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick4cpaid+327.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7945…00b2backed Yes4c530.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20147.1%1 W · 13 L-5.0wins-0.36per pick43cpaid-90.3%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes3c442.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0829027.9%81 W · 209 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfed…61b5backed Yes5c432.49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203125.8%8 W · 23 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+82.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes4c405.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1524149.4%119 W · 122 L+1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes4c399.97$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.28224.4%20 W · 62 L+8.3wins+0.10per pick14cpaid+64%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x270d…5ff2backed Yes3c341.93$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106722.4%15 W · 52 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+76.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xddee…56fdbacked Yes3c314.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11306.7%2 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-53.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93b6…1c8cbacked Yes4c310.83$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3329…2f5cbacked Yes5c309.17$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15677.5%5 W · 62 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ca5…9ababacked Yes4c247.1$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.091346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.