TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5e73…d43f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
68
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: NBA, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 53 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT2552%13 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,660Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+44.1%+$732.13
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$810Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$228.54
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.22
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$516Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$515.99
Based FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.35
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$92
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$770Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$230
Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$235Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+37%+$87.05
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,677Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+69.9%+$1,172.88
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$2,090Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+46.2%+$964.85
Infinex FDV above $600M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$69.33
Infinex FDV above $400M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$348Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+25.9%+$90.01
Infinex FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$970Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$970.25
Sentient FDV above $800M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$50.46
Sentient FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$375Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+33.3%+$125
Football.Fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$740Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+35.1%+$259.93
Over $10M committed to the Trove public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Over $10M committed to the Infinex public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+28.2%+$22
Over $7M committed to the Infinex public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$72
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+44.9%+$46.5
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$1,405Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$1,404.6
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$550Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$550
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+117.4%+$108
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$16.67
All 25 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Feb 5, 2026, EST1258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,644Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$1,643.64
Will Ethereum reach $3,100 January 26-1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+66.7%+$120
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$463Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$462.5
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,650Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+81.8%+$1,350
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$316Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+26.6%+$84
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$8,043Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+61.6%+$4,957.33
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$10,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+28.6%+$2,858.97
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$257Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$256.74
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$48.87
Will Ethereum reach $3,100 December 1-7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$2,220Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$2,219.97
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$7,600Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+31.6%+$2,400
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 November 10-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+334.8%+$96.25
All 12 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-74.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 8-14, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$80
Will the US next strike Iran on March 4, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$19.4
Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$24.81
Will the US next strike Iran on March 3, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$29
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$23.02
Will the US next strike Iran on March 5, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$13.24
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$27.16
Will the US next strike Iran on March 7, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$22.95
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$860Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+132.6%+$1,140
All 9 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-32.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-25.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 25, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+300%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+300%+$600
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Nov 9, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$403Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+61.3%+$247
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$21.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$57.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Dec 22, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$136.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.