Middle East · resolved market
Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 8-14, 2026 (ET)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42118eb25c8645b40a2ac03428398046a0c65099d0f749dade5f05f5292e6f60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $336,172
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $336,172 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbcd…dd61backed Yes | 0c | 250,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b2…c013backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15bc…2d9cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb78…a7b3backed Yes | 1c | 2,092$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe111…f95abacked Yes | 1c | 1,413$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes | 14c | 1,391$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.72 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…d43fbacked Yes | 8c | 999.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7524…de23backed Yes | 12c | 865.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…0217backed Yes | 15c | 497$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.55 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 10c | 363.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 5c | 311.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31cd…47e5backed Yes | 5c | 299.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x429b…4b5dbacked Yes | 10c | 240$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5582…ec6ebacked Yes | 9c | 197.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 19cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…ddfbbacked Yes | 10c | 190.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe46c…75e2backed Yes | 23c | 172.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd805…4a00backed Yes | 6c | 166.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7081…b068backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.23per pick | 20cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…3f31backed Yes | 9c | 111.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…05b8backed Yes | 14c | 107.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab63…feecbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 25cpaid | +291.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x55ad…80e4backed Yes | 17c | 89.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 12c | 88.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf784…ab48backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 8-14, 2026 (ET)?this page
- Will the US next strike Iran during the week of February 15-21, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran during the week of February 22-28, 2026 (ET)?Yes won
- Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 1-7, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 15-21, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 22-28, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 29-April 4, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US not strike Iran by April 4, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.