TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will the US not strike Iran by April 4, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$47,105
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,502

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,105 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes40c3,102$1,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,237.8938237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1eaa…b550backed Yes41c1,941$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.191154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+19.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x15f7…a018backed Yes20c1,090$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.523327.3%9 W · 24 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-38.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1cb…933ebacked No47c732$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.963246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa680…c13fbacked Yes39c708$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.121250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd907…f15fbacked No63c670$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.91241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x755e…7b04backed Yes53c639$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.671353.8%7 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid+72.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…1598backed Yes37c597$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.891625%4 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-50.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3c9…af45backed No63c597$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.891154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+46.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc336…9f48backed No45c552$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.62556%14 W · 11 L+3.9wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+53.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbf57…588ebacked No69c542$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.021258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7ff1…85cdbacked Yes53c539$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.671421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick47cpaid-61.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes32c532.93$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.9421531.2%67 W · 148 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50e8…ac57backed No62c490$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.052759.3%16 W · 11 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4346…2241backed Yes37c479$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.232437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f3e…f9d4backed No63c479$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.232751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39b4…3258backed No47c472$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.161442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-29.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d2b…f025backed No45c457$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.35850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed No61c438$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.823545.7%16 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0241…162abacked No45c407$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.851752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23b9…6447backed Yes38c405$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.9757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c55…8adebacked Yes37c378$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.861656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+33.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf92a…9134backed No47c372$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.162650%13 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+23.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No67c370.15$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.120749.3%102 W · 105 L-23.0wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-24.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc157…728cbacked Yes36c350.71$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.268427.4%23 W · 61 L-8.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-57.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No67c342.73$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.129254.8%160 W · 132 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No58c328.87$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.895913.6%8 W · 51 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-59.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x965d…7773backed No64c327$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.721560%9 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd41…3796backed Yes36c327$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.721250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed45…929dbacked Yes55c322$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.12352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+26.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd29f…26b4backed No69c322$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.821435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-27.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde9f…cd36backed No69c300$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$931758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+23.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7410…ad32backed No64c298$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.282100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+125.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb82b…dd5fbacked Yes36c298$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.281040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No64c285.66$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1037341.1%30 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8401…a498backed No64c256$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.161656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8669…7111backed Yes36c256$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.16714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.39per pick53cpaid-66.8%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xcce6…8fafbacked No67c252.43$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.433100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+68.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No67c240.05$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.195646.4%26 W · 30 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No62c232.04$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.5615951.6%82 W · 77 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x252c…391abacked Yes53c221$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.13825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-57.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No72c220.48$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.5832345.2%146 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa78e…74b0backed Yes54c216$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.64616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-24.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb4b…5166backed No45c210.84$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.265242.3%22 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+7.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0262…a9d2backed Yes39c205.2$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.736735.8%24 W · 43 L-7.1wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-36%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8745…4805backed Yes53c193$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.292653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7532…c6fcbacked No66c156.52$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.836355.6%35 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c0e…7ee8backed Yes39c152.37$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596162.3%38 W · 23 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0cb…ab6abacked Yes55c143$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.652254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1d2…d94cbacked Yes36c139.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.81616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-62.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cea…f32abacked Yes37c138.35$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518017.5%14 W · 66 L-9.1wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-47.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes26c137.23$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.364136.8%28 W · 385 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No62c106.36$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.9635652.8%188 W · 168 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x343d…cd2ebacked Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510052%52 W · 48 L-8.7wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x81da…379cbacked Yes36c90.09$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked Yes52c90$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.814945%67 W · 82 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5c8…e61bbacked No45c81$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.55850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+74.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7022…f64ebacked No70c77.28$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.859942.4%42 W · 57 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f68…2238backed Yes36c77$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.721040%4 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bb8…eea6backed No64c77$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.721450%7 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+40.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3add…90efbacked No68c73.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No60c70.01$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9416046.3%74 W · 86 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9bb…e773backed No65c70$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick39cpaid+117.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8900…f01dbacked No67c68.48$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.563548.6%17 W · 18 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+19.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e52…5912backed No61c66.09$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.75862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed No67c63.58$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.174129.3%12 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No80c61.34$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2716173.9%119 W · 42 L+12.6wins+0.08per pick66cpaid+10.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x30d5…ee99backed Yes36c54.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes25c53.89$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4731728.7%91 W · 226 L-35.7wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-48.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x32bb…894abacked No59c51.02$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.022944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bd4…2d42backed No42c46.66$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.97742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick22cpaid+26.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd215…b4eebacked No47c45$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.851662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes35c44.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.812932.6%42 W · 87 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ebd…888ebacked No45c44.13$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.131369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes40c41.82$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.734124.4%10 W · 31 L-16.0wins-0.39per pick63cpaid-63.2%equal weight23-0.24 edge/pick
0x78d2…7a2bbacked No58c41.26$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2710520%21 W · 84 L-14.9wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-57.5%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xe3de…5339backed Yes55c39$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.452236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-34.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d29…fe6dbacked No52c38.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.461747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed Yes28c36.95$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3513918.7%26 W · 113 L-13.9wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-52.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x056c…5066backed No68c31.87$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2813228%37 W · 95 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc624…ee24backed No48c31.25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2517247.7%82 W · 90 L-12.6wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-14.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd815…4afabacked Yes37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.140%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2934…9a60backed Yes53c29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.371526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-56.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfbb5…1a03backed Yes57c28.07$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No63c26.2$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.885725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x47e7…7c61backed No69c20.33$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3311554.8%63 W · 52 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.