Middle East · resolved market
Will the US not strike Iran by April 4, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5dd63e9e3897c91eaf5d6d334b9db35c0d352e5ca670cc884f776dcaec51af3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 40c | 3,102$1,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,237.89 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…b550backed Yes | 41c | 1,941$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.19 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f7…a018backed Yes | 20c | 1,090$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.52 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked No | 47c | 732$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.96 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa680…c13fbacked Yes | 39c | 708$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.12 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…f15fbacked No | 63c | 670$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.9 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755e…7b04backed Yes | 53c | 639$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.67 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…1598backed Yes | 37c | 597$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.89 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c9…af45backed No | 63c | 597$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.89 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…9f48backed No | 45c | 552$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.6 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…588ebacked No | 69c | 542$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.02 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…85cdbacked Yes | 53c | 539$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.67 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 32c | 532.93$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.94 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…ac57backed No | 62c | 490$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.05 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…2241backed Yes | 37c | 479$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.23 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed No | 63c | 479$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.23 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…3258backed No | 47c | 472$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.16 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2b…f025backed No | 45c | 457$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.35 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed No | 61c | 438$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.82 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked No | 45c | 407$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.85 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23b9…6447backed Yes | 38c | 405$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…8adebacked Yes | 37c | 378$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.86 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed No | 47c | 372$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.16 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 67c | 370.15$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.1 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc157…728cbacked Yes | 36c | 350.71$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.26 | 84 | 27.4%23 W · 61 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 67c | 342.73$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.1 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 58c | 328.87$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.89 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed No | 64c | 327$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.72 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed Yes | 36c | 327$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.72 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked Yes | 55c | 322$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.1 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd29f…26b4backed No | 69c | 322$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.82 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…cd36backed No | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7410…ad32backed No | 64c | 298$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +125.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…dd5fbacked Yes | 36c | 298$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.28 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 64c | 285.66$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8401…a498backed No | 64c | 256$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.16 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8669…7111backed Yes | 36c | 256$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 53cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…8fafbacked No | 67c | 252.43$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.43 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 240.05$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.19 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 62c | 232.04$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.56 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x252c…391abacked Yes | 53c | 221$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.13 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 72c | 220.48$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.58 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa78e…74b0backed Yes | 54c | 216$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.64 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4b…5166backed No | 45c | 210.84$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.26 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0262…a9d2backed Yes | 39c | 205.2$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.73 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4805backed Yes | 53c | 193$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.29 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked No | 66c | 156.52$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.83 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…7ee8backed Yes | 39c | 152.37$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cb…ab6abacked Yes | 55c | 143$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.65 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d2…d94cbacked Yes | 36c | 139.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 37c | 138.35$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | -9.1wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 26c | 137.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 62c | 106.36$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.96 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x343d…cd2ebacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | -8.7wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81da…379cbacked Yes | 36c | 90.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 52c | 90$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c8…e61bbacked No | 45c | 81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 70c | 77.28$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…2238backed Yes | 36c | 77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb8…eea6backed No | 64c | 77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3add…90efbacked No | 68c | 73.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 60c | 70.01$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bb…e773backed No | 65c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +117.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8900…f01dbacked No | 67c | 68.48$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e52…5912backed No | 61c | 66.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 67c | 63.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 80c | 61.34$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…ee99backed Yes | 36c | 54.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 25c | 53.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x32bb…894abacked No | 59c | 51.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd4…2d42backed No | 42c | 46.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 22cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd215…b4eebacked No | 47c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 35c | 44.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebd…888ebacked No | 45c | 44.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes | 40c | 41.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -16.0wins | -0.39per pick | 63cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 23-0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked No | 58c | 41.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 105 | 20%21 W · 84 L | -14.9wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed Yes | 55c | 39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d29…fe6dbacked No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 28c | 36.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 139 | 18.7%26 W · 113 L | -13.9wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 68c | 31.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 132 | 28%37 W · 95 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed No | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd815…4afabacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…9a60backed Yes | 53c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…1a03backed Yes | 57c | 28.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 63c | 26.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 69c | 20.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US not strike Iran by April 4, 2026?this page
- Will the US next strike Iran during the week of February 15-21, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran during the week of February 22-28, 2026 (ET)?Yes won
- Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 1-7, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 15-21, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 22-28, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 29-April 4, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 8-14, 2026 (ET)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.