Middle East · resolved market
Will the US next strike Iran during the week of February 22-28, 2026 (ET)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7be78a39f7c5c7ce00a49c771ec8d8c61feed32d385b92ad540b69dc576abef0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $232,930
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $235,122
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $232,930 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa61…4479backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x923c…fa1dbacked No | 0c | 8,712$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45a2…3c01backed Yes | 67c | 7,705$5,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,563.98 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 0c | 6,662$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8e…21b7backed Yes | 60c | 5,285$3,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,106.17 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96f7…dec3backed Yes | 36c | 2,992$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,916.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +178.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked Yes | 78c | 2,714$2,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.6 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +10.5wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +27%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0058…c2e7backed Yes | 15c | 2,596$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,206.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 80c | 2,525$2,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,019.24 | 185 | 31.9%59 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff4…3775backed Yes | 23c | 1,993$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,534.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +335.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 72c | 1,948$1,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.85 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf072…cee7backed No | 68c | 1,819$1,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,243.01 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 1,622$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,230.01 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 1,444$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b1…d3c9backed Yes | 18c | 1,310$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.75 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…bb33backed Yes | 19c | 1,152$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.12 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +181.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x24e0…b414backed No | 1c | 1,117$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8991…0d23backed Yes | 21c | 1,088$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.86 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 16c | 999.97$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.98 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…8c45backed No | 77c | 994$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.38 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d91…89d8backed Yes | 23c | 887$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 728.11$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.12 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…5c43backed Yes | 13c | 702.99$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.99 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 78c | 702.84$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.21 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 12c | 700$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.1 | 54 | 7.4%4 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c3…00c8backed No | 79c | 621.65$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.59 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 2c | 598.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddf4…2680backed Yes | 21c | 593.14$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.14 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf286…55e0backed Yes | 18c | 565.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.55 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 11cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e5…97fabacked Yes | 27c | 535.24$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.24 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 6c | 534.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 113 | 20.4%23 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf192…6ee2backed Yes | 22c | 518$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.04 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +5.7wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…67f5backed No | 80c | 500$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 78c | 491.65$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.73 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b26…cfc5backed Yes | 20c | 489.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +119.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 56c | 477.81$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.37 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 25c | 451.72$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.83 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 36c | 436.82$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.35 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5893…618abacked No | 80c | 436.24$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.99 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +173.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…00e6backed Yes | 12c | 435$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddee…56fdbacked Yes | 23c | 366.07$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.07 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 19c | 357$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.61 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd96e…1ea6backed Yes | 19c | 346$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.26 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +109.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c08…1ff6backed Yes | 25c | 326$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.31 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c1…0193backed Yes | 16c | 320.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.06 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +12.8wins | +0.26per pick | 27cpaid | +106%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 38c | 300.94$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.61 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 15c | 299.97$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.55 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 9c | 299.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.46 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 40c | 289.71$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.59 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf268…15cabacked Yes | 25c | 249.13$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…f12cbacked Yes | 21c | 242.29$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 51c | 238.91$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.57 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 80c | 237.9$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.32 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14d4…cc6fbacked Yes | 13c | 220$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.4 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +105.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb391…0325backed No | 70c | 218.33$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.8 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089e…45e6backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e58…f540backed Yes | 20c | 199.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.99 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 17c | 193.73$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b1…7754backed Yes | 13c | 190$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…11d0backed Yes | 64c | 181.68$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40c5…b4f4backed Yes | 22c | 176.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 34c | 164.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +41.8wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 78+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a1…fc31backed No | 78c | 164.46$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.6wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ea…7b4cbacked Yes | 22c | 158.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a2…293bbacked Yes | 20c | 149.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.99 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd6…019dbacked Yes | 12c | 147$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +280.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e5…9da4backed Yes | 19c | 146.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +159.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x429b…4b5dbacked Yes | 17c | 143.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.2 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcdb…87d9backed Yes | 16c | 139.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.09 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes | 19c | 134.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.27 | 105 | 20%21 W · 84 L | -14.9wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaf12…26bcbacked Yes | 14c | 132.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 18c | 128.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.11 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +6.7wins | +0.25per pick | 23cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2623…568bbacked Yes | 12c | 124.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19d3…5e5ebacked Yes | 65c | 122.32$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf964…6e97backed Yes | 17c | 119.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.98 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5f…11c5backed Yes | 20c | 118.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.25 | 143 | 25.9%37 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd140…810dbacked Yes | 64c | 107.19$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefb4…6322backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3710…49cfbacked Yes | 76c | 100.21$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 54cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d5…df70backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb87a…009bbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 11c | 92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1e…3ea3backed Yes | 22c | 89.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed Yes | 23c | 89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.53 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 34c | 84.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…2bffbacked Yes | 23c | 81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.37 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 78c | 79.86$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.29 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 80c | 77.06$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.28 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed No | 34c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +12.5wins | +0.21per pick | 21cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd27b…3966backed No | 34c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2644…2432backed Yes | 19c | 73.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.08 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +118%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c80…a49dbacked No | 74c | 72.27$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.37 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e2…0a27backed Yes | 20c | 71.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.07 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | -9.1wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x57b8…6ae0backed Yes | 63c | 65.69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb539…a3eabacked Yes | 21c | 64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +75.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US next strike Iran during the week of February 22-28, 2026 (ET)?this page
- Will the US next strike Iran during the week of February 15-21, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 1-7, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 15-21, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 22-28, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 29-April 4, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 8-14, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US not strike Iran by April 4, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.