Middle East · resolved market
Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 1-7, 2026 (ET)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cb20a760bc2bba3b87fae547a25cbac73f702abfa30e4a801e65f8b9f15d8ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,542,437
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $721,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,542,437 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbcd…dd61backed Yes | 0c | 750,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed8…09fdbacked Yes | 0c | 587,945$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.37per pick | 23cpaid | +113.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0b…01a4backed Yes | 0c | 231,639$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.96 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 27cpaid | +114%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9c…c5ebbacked Yes | 0c | 110,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8f…83e5backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ad…242fbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ec…143cbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf33…90e7backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.43per pick | 40cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c7e7backed Yes | 0c | 47,528$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.53 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8b…392bbacked Yes | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3a…c7cbbacked Yes | 0c | 35,130$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8556…fad9backed Yes | 1c | 33,315$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.88 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf614…c7b4backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x525c…a3adbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3dea…e49fbacked Yes | 0c | 18,919$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x046f…7021backed Yes | 0c | 18,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd16…649cbacked Yes | 0c | 18,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b2…c013backed Yes | 0c | 15,890$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8b…69f5backed Yes | 0c | 14,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15bc…2d9cbacked Yes | 0c | 13,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1431…1eb5backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd29…5b60backed Yes | 0c | 11,159$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe61a…ab8abacked Yes | 0c | 10,769$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fb…ec4fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…1f75backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +138.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x975c…3126backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…f73fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x172e…312ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa996…e251backed Yes | 3c | 9,197$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…36efbacked Yes | 0c | 8,142$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 6,918$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…43c1backed Yes | 24c | 6,000$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,409.99 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…26adbacked Yes | 1c | 5,979$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac6…b2edbacked Yes | 1c | 5,068$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +104%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8870…5a34backed Yes | 1c | 3,688$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b16…f985backed Yes | 1c | 3,348$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee0…e493backed Yes | 1c | 2,918$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb78…a7b3backed Yes | 1c | 2,328$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf667…602abacked Yes | 1c | 2,128$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed No | 70c | 1,731$1,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.27 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefb5…4999backed Yes | 1c | 1,722$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…5b36backed Yes | 1c | 1,598$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a3…81fabacked Yes | 1c | 1,093$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d48…d6f1backed Yes | 22c | 1,074$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.28 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +51%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0403…584abacked Yes | 38c | 984.63$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8991…0d23backed Yes | 35c | 899.61$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 884$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe111…f95abacked Yes | 9c | 847.23$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa15c…5a51backed Yes | 10c | 830$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9fc…451abacked Yes | 9c | 789.55$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.09 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8e…910cbacked Yes | 4c | 737.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x722f…f17fbacked Yes | 22c | 686$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.33 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.27per pick | 46cpaid | +95.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…1812backed Yes | 16c | 669$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.04 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 26c | 628.74$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.17 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c9…af45backed Yes | 15c | 599$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.85 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb91…a3f4backed Yes | 42c | 592.73$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0602…c77abacked No | 78c | 575.34$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 70c | 536.64$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.24 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e1…9aa9backed Yes | 10c | 526.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked Yes | 18c | 516$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.13 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed No | 76c | 516$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.84 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +107.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…a450backed Yes | 10c | 512.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83e0…53e6backed Yes | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 82 | 30.5%25 W · 57 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6604…3362backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…6d90backed No | 78c | 497$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddee…56fdbacked Yes | 18c | 483.75$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa092…0bf2backed Yes | 8c | 473.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef3c…ca4fbacked No | 78c | 444$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0262…a9d2backed No | 75c | 438.95$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.63 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c1…0193backed Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +12.8wins | +0.26per pick | 27cpaid | +106%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…bbf0backed Yes | 17c | 377$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.09 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 70c | 369.73$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.46 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 24c | 368.73$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.03 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bc…43e9backed No | 75c | 362$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf825…2e4abacked Yes | 25c | 362$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52ce…1da9backed Yes | 10c | 357.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +79%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc784…17ddbacked Yes | 37c | 346.76$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5126…da91backed Yes | 29c | 346.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.27per pick | 20cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…b54dbacked Yes | 19c | 328.96$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 16c | 317$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cb…ef82backed Yes | 6c | 309.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb862…5aaebacked Yes | 14c | 295$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a49…ee41backed Yes | 15c | 268.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +190.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcdb…87d9backed Yes | 5c | 266.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbc…6f50backed Yes | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8e…21b7backed Yes | 24c | 245.34$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ce…e288backed Yes | 12c | 244.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…aff0backed Yes | 15c | 243$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e5…9da4backed Yes | 8c | 237.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +159.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 63c | 237$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.05 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 24c | 222.16$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.67 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 11c | 206.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 129 | 18.6%24 W · 105 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 28c | 205.24$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.39 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes | 10c | 201.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 173 | 47.4%82 W · 91 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 68c | 191.27$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.55 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes | 15c | 179.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 105 | 20%21 W · 84 L | -14.9wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…0e97backed Yes | 13c | 176.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b45…836ebacked Yes | 14c | 168$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…4a0ebacked Yes | 29c | 167.47$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 1-7, 2026 (ET)?this page
- Will the US next strike Iran during the week of February 15-21, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran during the week of February 22-28, 2026 (ET)?Yes won
- Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 15-21, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 22-28, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 29-April 4, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 8-14, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US not strike Iran by April 4, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.