TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xce25…4e7d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
198
Categories scored
28
Categories below 50
13

Best Category: Premier League, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Premier League at 58 out of 100; worst AI at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT2948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+61.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.99
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$537Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$537.26
Will Sinners win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.74
Will The Secret Agent win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$359Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$358.8
Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$127.05
Will "Sentimental Value" win exactly 1 award at the Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$139.88
Will Frankenstein win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+37%+$46.71
Will The Girl Who Cried Pearls win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+400%+$218.4
Will Emma Stone attend the Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$242Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+70.1%+$169.33
Will John Stirling die in Bridgerton: Season 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$30.72
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$188Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+112.8%+$212
Will Erin Doherty win Best Actress in a Television Movie or Limited Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$239Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+257.1%+$613.44
Will John Candy: I Like Me win Best Producer of a TV Movie at the 37th PGA Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+426.3%+$385.56
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$186Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+81.8%+$152.1
Will "F1" win Best Editing at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$167Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+75.4%+$125.99
Will One of Them Days win Best First Screenplay at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$95.06
Will Wally Baram win Best Breakthrough Performance (TV) at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$222Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+47.1%+$104.64
Will Joel Edgerton be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+40.3%+$52.81
Will Rose Byrne be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$86.24
Will Michael B. Jordan be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$109.52
Will Come See Me in the Good Light be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$84.98
Will Mr. Nobody Against Putin be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$70
Will Apocalypse in the Tropics be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+104.1%+$36.72
Will Wagner Moura be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$49
Will Tiffany Little Canfield & Bernard Telsey (Wicked: For Good) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+38.9%+$5.04
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT2630.8%8 W · 18 L-3.5wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-47.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
AI — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$442Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+37%+$163.35
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.86
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$898Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$898.11
Another critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$171Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$171.36
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$219Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$219.02
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$219.78
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$353Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$353.32
Will Larry Page be 2nd richest person on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$16.17
Will Elon Musk be richest person on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.29
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$193Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$171.08
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.93
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$369Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$198.8
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$29.16
Will "MAGA" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$198.79
Will "Greenland" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$42.29
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.40 (HIGH) by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$60.96
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$255.4
Google Gemini Parlaybacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$395Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+27.3%+$108
SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$223Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$223.3
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$24.25
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+138.1%+$23.2
Will diVine launch iOS app by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$46.4
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+61.3%+$91.58
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$81.2
Will the assassination of Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched news on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+112.8%+$55.65
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+131%+$206.44
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.29
1k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in Q1 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$375Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$99.75
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$546Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$154
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$267Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$266.85
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$226Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+150%+$339.6
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$151.48
Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$133Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$176.7
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+244.8%+$134.9
Will Israel strike 3 countries in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$222Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+35.1%+$78
Will Israel strike 2 countries in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.24
Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 1-7, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$92.13
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$128.02
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$26.22
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$94.05
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+72.4%+$121.8
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$138.84
Israel strike on Yemen by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17.82
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+40.8%+$44.95
All 19 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT1747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$397Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+139.1%+$552.11
Named storm forms before hurricane season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$509Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$383.99
CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.77
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+275.9%+$176.15
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$166Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+221.3%+$367.8
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$339Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$339.24
Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$118.69
Will Seattle have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$560Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+29.9%+$167.21
Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$172.26
Will there be at least 1,300 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$21.3
Will there be at least 1,150 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+163.2%+$199.64
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 6 be between 60 and 70?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$229Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+233.3%+$534.8
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$178Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$177.93
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$426Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$426.35
Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$210Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$70
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$45.3
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in November 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$81.7
All 17 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT1428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid+31.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.2
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$221.16
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+890.1%+$893.61
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and 60%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+189.9%+$131
Labour leadership election scheduled by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.55
Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.74
Will Democrats 66 (D66) win the most seats in Rotterdam’s 2026 municipal election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.68
Will Starmer say "Mandelson" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$134.54
Will Keir Starmer say "Constructive" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$130.56
Will any of the stolen Louvre jewels be returned by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$77.92
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$97.19
Will turnout in the second round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be between 84% and 86%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$48.84
Will Ciprian Ciucu get between 20% and 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$58.52
Will Anca Alexandrescu finish third in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$151Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+40.8%+$61.48
All 14 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT1060%6 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+95.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
Music — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+566.7%+$669.8
Will Drake officially release Iceman by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$17.94
Will Kanye release BULLY by March 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$10
Will 'Nothing's About To Happen To Me' - Mitski debut week album sales be less than 20k?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$13.97
Will 'Nothing's About To Happen To Me' - Mitski debut week album sales be at least 40k?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$562Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$561.6
Will 'The Romantic' debut week album sales be between 150k and 200k?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+488.2%+$109.56
Will 'The Romantic' debut week album sales be at least 400k?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$51.84
Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+91.2%+$25.76
Will Leon Thomas win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$65.18
Will GNX (Kendrick Lamar) win Best Rap Album at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+112.3%+$19
All 10 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+26.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+220.6%+$227.77
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$112.33
Will the New York Knicks win more than 53.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$222Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$104.64
Will the Washington Wizards have the worst record in the NBA?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$257.54
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win more than 62.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.81
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+94%+$79.48
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.1
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025–2026 NBA Northwest Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.88
Cam Spencer: Assists Over 8.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$615Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+29.4%+$180.46
Will Lauri Markkanen be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$16.94
All 10 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.32per pick39cpaid+97.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
NFL — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-78.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST60%0 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
La Liga — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+40.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+127.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Premier League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+190.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blackburn Beavers vs. Eastern Illinois Panthersbacked Blackburn Beavers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$261Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$260.97
Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons vs. Milwaukee Panthers (W)backed Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+609.2%+$185.54
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils vs. Southern Jaguarsbacked Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.92
San Francisco Dons vs. San Diego Torerosbacked San Francisco Dons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+352.5%+$94.26
All 4 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+36.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Asian League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-66.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+733.3%+$638.88
The Bondi Parlay (Feb 27)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$95.68
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick26cpaid+35.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will three people dissent the December Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+170.3%+$78.75
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$16.24
All 2 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CSyD Defensa y Justicia win on 2026-03-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.7
Will FC Juárez win on 2026-02-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$144.3
All 2 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick78cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 29, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Logan Paul Break 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 500k?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$514Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+29.9%+$153.41
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX have 11 or more launches in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$337Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$337.44
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Juventus advance to the round of 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$457Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$457.47
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will BIG qualify to IEM Cologne Major 2026? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$405Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$404.82
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.