AI · resolved market
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5839a7198f0164d143226b263c0a1170485bbae3c5265d24152013f71f4552ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,289
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 10c | 1,890$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.9 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +16.6wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked Yes | 20c | 1,277$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.4 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…db77backed Yes | 16c | 908$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.28 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…8adebacked Yes | 16c | 900$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…d0a0backed No | 80c | 751$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6007…9553backed Yes | 16c | 716$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.56 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…e4c8backed No | 77c | 419$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.37 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…434bbacked Yes | 23c | 419$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.37 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xacb1…6de8backed No | 80c | 356$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 15c | 313.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 9c | 255.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Yes | 11c | 250.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa1…d4c8backed Yes | 32c | 222.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.02 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0184…23f6backed No | 80c | 170$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +5.5wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x854d…6f9dbacked No | 60c | 167.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 17c | 142.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xaa46…4a23backed Yes | 26c | 116.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 18c | 108.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 11c | 102.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01b1…1bf0backed Yes | 37c | 31.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…a2b1backed No | 80c | 23.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 7?this page
- Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 4?No won
- Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 5?No won
- Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 6?No won
- Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.