TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa9ab…d0a0

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
153
Categories scored
25
Categories below 50
13

Best Category: World Politics, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 60 out of 100; worst NBA at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT2540%10 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-42.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$207Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+63.7%+$131.48
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.28
No one announced as next James Bond?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$106.8
Will Come See Me in the Good Light win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.32
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$322Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$322.4
Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$164Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+37%+$60.75
Will "Hamnet" win exactly 1 award at the Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.8
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$155Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$51.75
Will "Hamnet" win Best Film at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$95.41
Will Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas win Best Supporting Actress at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$212Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+58.7%+$124.69
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$719Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$718.52
Will The Perfect Neighbor be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$35.88
Will Apocalypse in the Tropics be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$447Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$446.89
Will The Testament of Ann Lee be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+31.6%+$17.28
Will Bugonia be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$22.54
Will "Sentimental Value" win Best Motion Picture - Non-English Language at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$276Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+35.1%+$96.98
Will The Pitt win Best Television Series – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$57.12
Will Britt Lower (Severance) win Best Actress – Television Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$34.21
Will "Sarah Silverman: Postmortem" win Best Performance in Stand-Up Comedy on Television?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+35.1%+$38.74
Will "Ricky Gervais: Mortality" win Best Performance in Stand-Up Comedy on Television?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$317Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+61.3%+$194.18
Will Jean Smart (Hacks) win Best Actress – Television Musical or Comedy at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$42
Will Tramell Tillman (Severance) win Best Supporting Actor – Television at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+35.1%+$10.4
Will Benicio Del Toro (One Battle After Another) win Best Supporting Actor – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$409Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+41.4%+$169.35
Will "Run Away" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$103.82
"The Witcher: Season 4" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 60 and 74?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$17.6
All 25 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT1931.6%6 W · 13 L-3.9wins-0.21per pick52cpaid-46.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
NBA — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.11
Will the Miami Heat make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$422Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$421.98
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$76
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$403Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+56%+$225.32
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$168.02
Will Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$242Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$241.74
Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$124.89
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.23
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$235Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$115.83
Will the Washington Wizards win more than 20.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.33
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$179.52
Will the Los Angeles Lakers make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.85
Will the Milwaukee Bucks make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.88
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win more than 35.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$183Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$183.15
Will Domantas Sabonis be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$367Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+47.1%+$172.8
Will Jonathan Kuminga be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+29.9%+$23.69
Will Anthony Davis be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$36.18
Will Keon Ellis be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$80.07
Will Trae Young be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$302Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$302.19
All 19 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-33.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$196Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$96.36
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$194Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$48.6
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.00 (LOW) by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$340Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$101.66
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$219.52
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$782Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$781.87
Will Artemis II launch by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$123.95
Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$179Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+28.2%+$50.6
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$656Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$656.08
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.40 (HIGH) by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$81.4
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$601Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+25%+$150.2
Google Gemini Parlaybacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$338Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$338.18
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$419Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$419.32
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$66.88
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$54.34
All 14 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT1353.8%7 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.27per pick27cpaid+142%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
World Politics — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$121.66
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win between 80-84 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.76
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 58% and 59%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.96
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$174Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$142.65
Will Starmer say "Restore Britain" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$35.2
Will the National Citizen Party finish with the third most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+257.1%+$256.32
Will Albin Kurti be the next Prime Minister of Kosovo?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+762.1%+$760.24
Will Keir Starmer say "Constructive" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$413Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+47.1%+$194.24
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win less than 10% of votes in the first round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$102
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 12% and 14% of votes in the first round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$21.6
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 10–15 years in prison?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$224Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+112.8%+$252.81
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win between 12% and 14% of votes in the first round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+809.1%+$881.99
Will Catalin Drula finish third in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$43.18
All 13 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT1353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+72.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Named storm forms before hurricane season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$272Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$222.75
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$394.21
Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$81.12
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 6 be between 60 and 70?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$156.62
Will January 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$333Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+40.1%+$133.58
Will January 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$277Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+38.9%+$107.8
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$284Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$284.1
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$106.6
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$95.55
Will 1550 to 1599 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+550.9%+$461.27
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$35.19
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+400%+$99.2
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+49.3%+$15.84
All 13 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-36.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+37%+$17.28
Will USD reach 1.6M Iranian rials by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$369Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$369.1
Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$43.65
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$246Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+58.7%+$144.3
Will Israel strike 2 countries in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$303Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$302.56
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$102.9
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$145.44
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$450Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$449.68
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+81.8%+$47.25
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+92.3%+$57.12
Will the US strike Syria next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$20.16
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+50.7%+$77.05
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$27.69
All 13 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Knee injury" be said at the Super Bowl?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$242Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+44.9%+$108.5
Will the Seattle Seahawks be eliminated in the Divisional Round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$10.92
Will the Buffalo Bills be eliminated in the Conference Championship Round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$37.08
Will John Harbaugh join the New York Giants prior to April 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$347Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+78.6%+$272.36
Will the Los Angeles Chargers be eliminated in the Wild Card Round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+61.3%+$37.62
Will the Philadelphia Eagles be eliminated in the Wild Card Round?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$36.4
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars be eliminated in the Wild Card Round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+104.1%+$77.52
Will the Chicago Bears be eliminated in the Wild Card Round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$122.72
Will Pete Carroll be fired by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$163Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+85.2%+$138.46
All 9 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Royce White be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$149.27
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$123.2
Will Julie Emerson be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$207Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+37%+$76.41
Will Tom Sell be the Republican Nominee for TX-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$420Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$437.07
Will John Cornyn come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$393Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+67.6%+$265.39
Will Mark Teixeira be the Republican nominee for TX-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$176Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+104.1%+$183.09
Will Amanda Edwards win TX-18 Special Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$76.8
U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$88.9
All 8 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-60.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2026, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.37per pick51cpaid-81.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Asian League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+51.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UNCW Seahawks vs. Charleston Cougarsbacked UNCW Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+203%+$304.18
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils vs. Southern Jaguarsbacked Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.6
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$178Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$178.12
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+51.5%+$26.18
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+426.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$125.55
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Pacific Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$227Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+100%+$226.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by end of January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+44.9%+$35.34
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Portsmouth FC vs. Ipswich Town FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$421Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$163.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nvidia (NVDA) hit a 52-Week High by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12.58
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Agomab Therapeutics NV's market cap be between $600M and $700M at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$131.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "Peanut" this week? (January 18)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$27.93
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.65
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$250.32
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.