Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1013e9a54ed6144bb8f841b8f20f5a73303479938da0fd05eff5fbec85cac37f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,537 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a2a…0e86backed No | 5c | 4,358$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccb…6c69backed Yes | 80c | 2,931$2,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea72…e2cbbacked No | 9c | 2,416$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe38b…af50backed No | 30c | 2,391$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6463…e8fdbacked No | 26c | 1,951$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde62…64f6backed Yes | 78c | 1,713$1,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed No | 20c | 1,648$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…293cbacked No | 17c | 1,466$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ec…71f4backed No | 19c | 1,437$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc1…d40bbacked No | 26c | 1,362$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fd…a3e1backed Yes | 79c | 1,200$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad04…dce5backed No | 21c | 1,105$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 17c | 1,099$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.92 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a7…4d86backed No | 21c | 1,061$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5400…1342backed No | 24c | 1,033$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.88 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…4d4cbacked No | 20c | 1,014$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 75c | 1,000$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.24 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Yes | 78c | 1,000$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked Yes | 75c | 999.99$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed No | 20c | 978$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a79…1ccbbacked No | 20c | 909$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 16c | 733.97$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.39 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a3…e60abacked No | 18c | 696.37$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.59 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…e62fbacked Yes | 80c | 642$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4805backed Yes | 80c | 642$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6737…5d94backed No | 19c | 524.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc3…724dbacked Yes | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 19c | 483.63$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.51 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed Yes | 74c | 442$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked No | 23c | 438.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b8…0c87backed Yes | 74c | 438$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa55b…857bbacked Yes | 80c | 364$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 24c | 346.63$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.19 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa092…11e3backed Yes | 76c | 300$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed No | 23c | 289.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 58c | 279.99$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.4 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0021…7c05backed No | 11c | 271.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…5766backed No | 6c | 270.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…d0a0backed No | 21c | 265$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f9…4191backed No | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x227d…1a26backed No | 7c | 251.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffec…af34backed Yes | 77c | 231.71$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…c444backed No | 23c | 231.71$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 5c | 208.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9a…a377backed Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 79c | 199.99$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b0…fc67backed Yes | 79c | 199.98$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 55c | 196.44$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.4 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +6.1wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 18c | 194.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78e5…e9b5backed No | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5561…0569backed No | 23c | 154.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0698…a4d6backed No | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…190dbacked No | 20c | 123$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 78c | 120.76$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 78c | 120.55$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…c56ebacked No | 21c | 120.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe957…7c66backed No | 24c | 119.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e4…498cbacked No | 21c | 118$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 57c | 116.27$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.25per pick | 31cpaid | +135%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4646…04d9backed No | 21c | 113$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc2…7ed7backed No | 22c | 111.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked No | 9c | 105.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…ca7fbacked No | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 79c | 102.46$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddd…8956backed No | 21c | 101.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe193…cc85backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa3…841cbacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa62e…cd3ebacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…5850backed Yes | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…00b4backed Yes | 79c | 99.98$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…a7eabacked No | 20c | 97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x606d…dfc4backed No | 20c | 97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 19c | 96.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6689…b9dcbacked No | 21c | 95.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3a…ee52backed No | 19c | 91.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 71c | 90$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c90…d41fbacked No | 21c | 89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 16c | 81.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x936c…96e8backed No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 28c | 78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40bc…eb4dbacked No | 20c | 74.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 78c | 72.08$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…eb72backed No | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077f…d810backed No | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f35…8b4abacked No | 18c | 66.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9e…02b7backed No | 17c | 66.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 18c | 64.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf6…7521backed No | 23c | 64.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae31…7fa1backed No | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed No | 26c | 58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…dfc7backed Yes | 80c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f0…e8bdbacked No | 22c | 53.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda17…9b48backed Yes | 80c | 52.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb08…2b30backed No | 21c | 51.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3038…eba7backed Yes | 79c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d10…6bf5backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfde…8267backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Affordability" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Balance Sheet" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "China" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Collect" or "Collected" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Comment" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Delayed" or "Delay" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Distortion" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Dollar" 2+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Fed" or "Federal Reserve" 7+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Food" or "Energy" 3+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Gold" or "Oil" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Housing" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Iran" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Not our job" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Nothing" 3+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Percent" 20+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Politics" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Refund" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Signal" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Simulation" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" or "Pardon" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Speculate" or "Speculation" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Successor" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Supreme Court" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Volatile" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "War" during March press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.