Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Iran" during March press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf69e279be34d4563b075802868dd708e9a71c47e0ecc1090e723f5b303d801c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,523
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,523 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde06…41fbbacked No | 42c | 3,386$1,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,968.77 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed No | 65c | 1,933$1,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.05 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +73%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f80…14cdbacked Yes | 30c | 1,500$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe24a…fc69backed No | 33c | 1,440$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…f7eabacked Yes | 67c | 1,368$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edf…7eadbacked Yes | 65c | 1,265$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5b…93cdbacked Yes | 36c | 1,169$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed No | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 46c | 779$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a6…0a76backed No | 44c | 750$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 68c | 598.05$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.04 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe4…ee11backed Yes | 62c | 567.56$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9e…5421backed Yes | 65c | 527.94$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b0…fc67backed Yes | 64c | 500$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 35c | 499.99$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.99 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebef…8731backed Yes | 33c | 499.77$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b5…45b3backed Yes | 59c | 455.22$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…a06bbacked Yes | 31c | 453.16$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 68c | 423.73$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.97 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5f…81c0backed No | 64c | 379$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 57c | 344.2$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.56 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 24c | 307.09$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.67 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 58c | 293.2$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.31 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6699…604ebacked Yes | 57c | 263.86$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c61…e005backed No | 78c | 256.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked No | 38c | 249.12$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.74 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…422abacked No | 37c | 210.15$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd1…099ebacked Yes | 58c | 200.14$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.08 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe193…cc85backed Yes | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed Yes | 22c | 200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 41cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe042…f206backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…2372backed Yes | 36c | 196$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 33c | 191.43$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.06 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 190.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 37c | 187$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.7 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…0137backed Yes | 36c | 183$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 56c | 180$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed No | 78c | 180$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed Yes | 61c | 161.8$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.7 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9c…196bbacked Yes | 11c | 159.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1be6…512dbacked Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…95ebbacked No | 43c | 154.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +134.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 55c | 143.18$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.02 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 57c | 135.95$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.49 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…5fb0backed Yes | 59c | 121.76$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…e189backed Yes | 38c | 117.34$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 40c | 115.23$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.22 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Yes | 56c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked No | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 60c | 99.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.51 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked No | 42c | 99.49$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.76 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes | 65c | 98.54$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae5…45e3backed No | 70c | 94.03$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe215…a3d9backed No | 38c | 90.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1442…5a8fbacked Yes | 63c | 86.9$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…b38cbacked No | 28c | 80$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 35c | 78.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.53 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 63c | 75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…1812backed No | 38c | 74.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 73.14$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b3…c41fbacked Yes | 69c | 72.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…7861backed Yes | 67c | 72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4153…967dbacked Yes | 72c | 69.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 38c | 68.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 31c | 60.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1f…6823backed No | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 32c | 59.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f7…ae50backed No | 34c | 59.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb3…7133backed Yes | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9d…ea34backed No | 45c | 55.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed No | 40c | 55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked Yes | 55c | 53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3c…4169backed No | 38c | 52.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24aa…7e0abacked Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad3…7715backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8f…6f11backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61e1…c580backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +96.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…800abacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…2cdabacked Yes | 62c | 49.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 66c | 46.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 54c | 46.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…a4d6backed No | 44c | 45.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +126.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed No | 74c | 43.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…a2aabacked Yes | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…9ab0backed Yes | 74c | 40.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ad…9e5fbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed No | 78c | 39.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c2…e324backed No | 38c | 35.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcff9…dd7cbacked Yes | 59c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f42…6496backed Yes | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9d…9de8backed Yes | 72c | 34.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked No | 38c | 32.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f32…2e85backed Yes | 59c | 30.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58ec…5bc0backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5f…b5bdbacked Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8505…443fbacked Yes | 70c | 28.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Iran" during March press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Affordability" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Balance Sheet" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "China" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Collect" or "Collected" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Comment" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Delayed" or "Delay" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Distortion" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Dollar" 2+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Fed" or "Federal Reserve" 7+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Food" or "Energy" 3+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Gold" or "Oil" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Housing" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Not our job" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Nothing" 3+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Percent" 20+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Politics" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Refund" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Signal" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Simulation" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" or "Pardon" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Speculate" or "Speculation" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Successor" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Supreme Court" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Volatile" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "War" during March press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.