Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Pandemic" during March press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x106aa7d143df13768d495f71636f9b064e6c39fe3bee9ea0fdf4f6dfd7c3e0b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,410 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1d5…4aa2backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe042…f206backed No | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde06…41fbbacked Yes | 65c | 1,709$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.97 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 34c | 1,079$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.82 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1002…a396backed No | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6e…b29dbacked Yes | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 36c | 464.78$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.38 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81fb…2261backed Yes | 62c | 323$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 66c | 300.05$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.77 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ab…cf5abacked No | 37c | 293.05$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2f…7e70backed No | 39c | 278.67$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.9 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +116%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa48a…fcd2backed No | 39c | 271$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…7260backed Yes | 61c | 271$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x685b…1de5backed No | 41c | 267$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9811…259bbacked Yes | 62c | 264$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2b…6dd8backed No | 41c | 261$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…997dbacked No | 41c | 257$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d3…2337backed No | 41c | 254$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d92…8f7abacked No | 41c | 252$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x643e…b910backed No | 41c | 244$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa363…f905backed No | 41c | 243$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x809d…c03dbacked Yes | 67c | 242.2$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2800…a7eabacked No | 41c | 235$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked No | 43c | 232.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ad…87ccbacked Yes | 62c | 224$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 35c | 220.33$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.31 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 41c | 215.7$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.38 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x197e…7fefbacked No | 38c | 203$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b6…159dbacked Yes | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3a…ee52backed No | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…0e4bbacked Yes | 59c | 199$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dba…5052backed Yes | 59c | 198$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 65c | 197.19$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.33 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x981f…9052backed Yes | 59c | 195$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a05…0247backed Yes | 59c | 193$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad51…208cbacked Yes | 59c | 192$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f7…c7b6backed Yes | 59c | 191$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27b…95f3backed Yes | 61c | 182$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa8…cf3dbacked Yes | 61c | 178$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa25c…3314backed Yes | 61c | 177$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08af…16f7backed Yes | 59c | 176$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd64…912bbacked Yes | 59c | 174$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbf…0367backed Yes | 61c | 173$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.47 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x730b…6c9dbacked Yes | 59c | 169$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d94…55dabacked No | 38c | 169$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d0…61adbacked Yes | 59c | 169$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6290…d310backed No | 38c | 164$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 35c | 162.31$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.81 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b47…ab73backed No | 38c | 159$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11e7…c104backed No | 38c | 159$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…0f64backed Yes | 61c | 157$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a89…8469backed Yes | 59c | 157$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c9…7a29backed Yes | 62c | 155$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 18c | 153.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5e…7972backed Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x158d…9c64backed Yes | 66c | 152.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ed…ebccbacked No | 36c | 145$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…00b4backed No | 42c | 143$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198d…4be3backed No | 36c | 143$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4a…7e8abacked No | 38c | 141$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fc…f25fbacked No | 39c | 136$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…edd5backed Yes | 61c | 133$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0355…8193backed No | 38c | 130$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 64c | 126.05$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.83 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd78…bcfbbacked No | 36c | 117$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 33c | 113.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 40c | 112.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 64c | 107.62$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ce…3c8ebacked Yes | 60c | 104$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd44…1837backed No | 40c | 104$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddd…8956backed No | 34c | 101.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02a…f293backed Yes | 59c | 97.54$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked Yes | 59c | 92.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 71c | 86.81$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed No | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 36c | 78.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 36c | 71.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc535…b0e7backed Yes | 65c | 63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4180…fa2abacked Yes | 64c | 61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a3…5e0bbacked Yes | 64c | 59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 33c | 56.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa62e…cd3ebacked No | 36c | 55.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed No | 34c | 53.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…800abacked No | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90cf…5914backed Yes | 64c | 49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49e2…7672backed Yes | 61c | 49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…22a1backed No | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes | 66c | 45.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 58c | 44.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91e8…5a81backed No | 36c | 44.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…2a32backed No | 36c | 44.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a5…a9f3backed Yes | 65c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…fb9fbacked Yes | 64c | 44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…eb72backed No | 39c | 38.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8b…ad3fbacked No | 33c | 38.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…589bbacked Yes | 64c | 38.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…3c90backed Yes | 64c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc9…0b92backed No | 41c | 36.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…5685backed Yes | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during March press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Affordability" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Balance Sheet" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "China" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Collect" or "Collected" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Comment" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Delayed" or "Delay" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Distortion" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Dollar" 2+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Fed" or "Federal Reserve" 7+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Food" or "Energy" 3+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Gold" or "Oil" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Housing" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Iran" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Not our job" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Nothing" 3+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Percent" 20+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Politics" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Refund" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Signal" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Simulation" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" or "Pardon" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Speculate" or "Speculation" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Successor" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Supreme Court" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Volatile" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "War" during March press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.