Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Supreme Court" during March press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb08a663cf870c1b62462de79708e39fc0d8288a8cd2d3e54fed63e2c094344f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,135 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1002…a396backed Yes | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6e…b29dbacked No | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 22c | 770$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.4 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed No | 71c | 576.05$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.62 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde06…41fbbacked No | 78c | 550.16$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.71 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…25a8backed Yes | 19c | 540.52$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.63 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…758bbacked No | 62c | 450$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3acc…973dbacked No | 63c | 315$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0acc…debabacked Yes | 37c | 315$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…30a8backed Yes | 20c | 259.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd1…95c8backed Yes | 45c | 230$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd61d…81b0backed Yes | 45c | 228$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd482…12e5backed Yes | 45c | 223$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eca…58dfbacked Yes | 45c | 222$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f3…ccd4backed Yes | 45c | 222$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…a475backed Yes | 45c | 220$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 19c | 213.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa655…e1ddbacked Yes | 45c | 209$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…09febacked Yes | 45c | 206$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0675…40bdbacked Yes | 45c | 205$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbb…7df9backed Yes | 45c | 204$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27b…95f3backed No | 65c | 184$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb45e…48fcbacked No | 55c | 182$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…346bbacked No | 55c | 182$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ca…3990backed No | 55c | 182$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x352d…628bbacked No | 55c | 182$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf44…a347backed No | 55c | 182$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f2…6f8abacked No | 55c | 182$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ad…c374backed No | 55c | 181$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39da…0e04backed No | 55c | 181$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd5…be73backed No | 55c | 181$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…5e8abacked No | 55c | 181$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x630f…5fcabacked No | 55c | 180$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 36c | 177.69$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa25c…3314backed No | 65c | 177$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc58c…3e13backed No | 55c | 173$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbf…0367backed No | 65c | 172$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa8…cf3dbacked No | 65c | 169$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c8…e61bbacked Yes | 38c | 158$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…0f64backed No | 65c | 155$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…0e2bbacked Yes | 38c | 152$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…edd5backed No | 65c | 143$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebef…8731backed Yes | 28c | 140.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd70b…a152backed Yes | 38c | 140$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe38b…af50backed Yes | 22c | 112.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x440e…4907backed No | 66c | 109.8$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 17c | 105.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x88ad…9e5fbacked Yes | 19c | 103.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 23c | 98.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 90.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes | 19c | 83.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 18c | 82.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +73%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…efd6backed Yes | 20c | 66.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 66c | 60.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…800abacked Yes | 35c | 59.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 30c | 56.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d74…04e3backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 75c | 43.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5648…a431backed Yes | 36c | 38.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 34c | 37.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b19…0d8abacked No | 65c | 30.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…d904backed No | 68c | 29.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf568…8b5fbacked No | 68c | 27.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…a2aabacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54be…91fabacked No | 76c | 19.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Supreme Court" during March press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Affordability" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Balance Sheet" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "China" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Collect" or "Collected" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Comment" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Delayed" or "Delay" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Distortion" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Dollar" 2+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Fed" or "Federal Reserve" 7+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Food" or "Energy" 3+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Gold" or "Oil" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Housing" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Iran" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Not our job" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Nothing" 3+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Percent" 20+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Politics" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Refund" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Signal" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Simulation" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" or "Pardon" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Speculate" or "Speculation" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Successor" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Volatile" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "War" during March press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.