Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Politics" during March press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbcc0285ca4370fb5b7e26d749af96c74883a0ae4e24df9b9a49a1f9a26afeee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,103 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa676…1c22backed No | 66c | 501.82$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.85 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 299.26$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.75 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 65c | 297.74$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.21 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3eae…5e6dbacked No | 61c | 201.71$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.85 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd230…f600backed Yes | 42c | 185.55$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 157.33$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 69c | 150.03$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8521…91c8backed Yes | 40c | 145.41$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +90%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14e6…b0c5backed Yes | 25c | 116.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d74…04e3backed Yes | 34c | 109.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde06…41fbbacked No | 66c | 83.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed No | 64c | 68.26$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…b38cbacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes | 35c | 59.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 36c | 59.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 73c | 56.58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…3727backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x929e…eaa6backed Yes | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 75c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2807…27d5backed Yes | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63e1…802abacked Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 35c | 41.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 74c | 40.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63ed…437dbacked Yes | 34c | 38.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 51c | 32.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7169…3ca6backed No | 66c | 25.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 63c | 18.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Politics" during March press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Affordability" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Balance Sheet" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "China" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Collect" or "Collected" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Comment" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Delayed" or "Delay" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Distortion" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Dollar" 2+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Fed" or "Federal Reserve" 7+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Food" or "Energy" 3+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Gold" or "Oil" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Housing" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Iran" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Not our job" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Nothing" 3+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Percent" 20+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Refund" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Signal" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Simulation" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" or "Pardon" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Speculate" or "Speculation" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Successor" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Supreme Court" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Volatile" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "War" during March press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.