Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Sorry" or "Pardon" during March press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f621fbe40e35b091caeb6fe4e37de178e9214592730cbc10cebe866eb406efc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,176 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x634a…8dc0backed No | 25c | 3,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76d7…b775backed Yes | 75c | 3,000$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…dc10backed No | 20c | 1,347$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed No | 21c | 1,000$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a3…e60abacked No | 20c | 986.96$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.29 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc3…724dbacked Yes | 79c | 862.5$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…0217backed Yes | 80c | 681$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x465c…6e53backed Yes | 80c | 666$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x809d…c03dbacked Yes | 80c | 625.16$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.16 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf34…29cabacked Yes | 75c | 529$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…579cbacked Yes | 75c | 523$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb97d…039bbacked Yes | 75c | 522$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd833…17d9backed Yes | 75c | 519$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac87…88c7backed Yes | 75c | 510$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 19c | 499.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 75c | 416.09$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.42 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ff…fa1bbacked No | 20c | 399.98$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3e66backed Yes | 75c | 397$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…ed0cbacked Yes | 80c | 324$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b0…fc67backed Yes | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 17c | 292.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5e…7972backed Yes | 79c | 253.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f7…42a9backed No | 23c | 249.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed No | 20c | 219.62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 20c | 182.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed No | 22c | 131.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 72c | 125$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1be6…512dbacked Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 28c | 125$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4400…6335backed No | 26c | 111.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91be…2641backed No | 20c | 110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd824…528bbacked No | 20c | 109$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…4d4cbacked No | 20c | 105$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 41cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 20c | 90.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bf…8ecebacked No | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 21c | 75.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed No | 22c | 73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 20c | 70.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 76c | 62.68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 19c | 62.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0d…d3a5backed Yes | 79c | 62.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 20c | 62.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3eae…5e6dbacked Yes | 77c | 50.83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x698a…fe0dbacked Yes | 78c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1722…165abacked No | 22c | 46.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked Yes | 79c | 43.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd6…0471backed No | 29c | 37.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf38a…8485backed Yes | 80c | 36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8a…f408backed Yes | 79c | 31.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes | 77c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa594…5bb8backed Yes | 80c | 18.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49ff…b00abacked Yes | 79c | 17.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Sorry" or "Pardon" during March press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Affordability" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Balance Sheet" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "China" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Collect" or "Collected" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Comment" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Delayed" or "Delay" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Distortion" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Dollar" 2+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Fed" or "Federal Reserve" 7+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Food" or "Energy" 3+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Gold" or "Oil" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Housing" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Iran" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Not our job" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Nothing" 3+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Percent" 20+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Politics" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Refund" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Signal" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Simulation" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Speculate" or "Speculation" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Successor" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Supreme Court" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Volatile" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "War" during March press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.