Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Fed" or "Federal Reserve" 7+ times during March press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccb5d0ddc702fdf00e9f3dff8a72eb370cbf86a6b0849aa3544ab23d0af4c17c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,945
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,945 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7a3…e60abacked No | 44c | 3,184$1,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,781.17 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed No | 51c | 1,895$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 53c | 1,791$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2756…42efbacked Yes | 49c | 952$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb593…28eabacked Yes | 49c | 943$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed Yes | 47c | 840$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde06…41fbbacked No | 43c | 835.63$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.13 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…be53backed Yes | 51c | 747$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 3c | 689.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5e…7972backed Yes | 50c | 598.83$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…644ebacked No | 53c | 529$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf907…e7dbbacked No | 53c | 511$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 39c | 499.99$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.99 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…7a33backed No | 53c | 488$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 40cpaid | +186.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked Yes | 51c | 469$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b32…c8a9backed Yes | 51c | 437$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Yes | 61c | 400$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x656c…af94backed Yes | 47c | 391$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…0451backed No | 49c | 376$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b63…52cfbacked No | 49c | 371$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 46c | 341.04$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.06 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08c9…bee7backed No | 51c | 311$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…f815backed Yes | 49c | 306$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87fd…66bcbacked No | 49c | 305$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f2…95debacked No | 49c | 304$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf666…8842backed Yes | 49c | 303$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd008…e9dbbacked No | 51c | 298$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf40b…7181backed Yes | 47c | 297$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83be…6f94backed No | 49c | 297$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked Yes | 49c | 295$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe62…6d76backed No | 51c | 295$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed Yes | 58c | 270$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.6 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb1…7685backed Yes | 7c | 267.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3068…083dbacked No | 50c | 265.95$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 50c | 256.5$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.08 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…d897backed Yes | 45c | 251$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…efb4backed Yes | 45c | 243$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e1…9561backed Yes | 45c | 238$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c8…a693backed Yes | 45c | 236$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf21e…f0bbbacked Yes | 45c | 235$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 47c | 231.86$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.55 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf150…d9bcbacked Yes | 45c | 223$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed No | 42c | 222.34$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.31 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…eee8backed Yes | 45c | 215$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d25…95f9backed Yes | 45c | 214$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c3…da93backed Yes | 45c | 211$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacb…23a5backed Yes | 49c | 205.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d2…8c01backed No | 55c | 203$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 50c | 200.15$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.05 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6101…063cbacked No | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 47c | 199.95$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.98 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6682…78bebacked No | 55c | 197$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeefe…dc65backed No | 55c | 192$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9db…d937backed Yes | 54c | 190$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3f…0fa5backed Yes | 61c | 189.36$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a09…64a3backed No | 55c | 184$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03d2…6ac2backed No | 55c | 182$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0b…3a23backed No | 55c | 182$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x598d…5a82backed No | 55c | 180$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02af…de85backed No | 55c | 178$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf23d…89a3backed No | 55c | 178$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc553…7e91backed No | 55c | 178$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc43…2b23backed Yes | 59c | 169.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 53c | 167.78$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.65 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 78c | 159.67$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…bdd6backed Yes | 63c | 154.65$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 38c | 152$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.76 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed No | 44c | 116$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.54 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 46c | 115.22$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.09 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…e30ebacked Yes | 50c | 110$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e71…c117backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8250…743fbacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…800abacked Yes | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88ad…9e5fbacked No | 52c | 96.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.04 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…2fe9backed Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -15%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 86.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.36 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 54c | 85.7$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0335…caf1backed Yes | 60c | 82.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 35c | 82.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.31 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 43c | 80.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc2…7ed7backed Yes | 65c | 77.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 57c | 65.51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 58c | 60.97$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…9f96backed Yes | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed No | 55c | 57.96$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa594…5bb8backed Yes | 62c | 55.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 50c | 53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5561…0569backed No | 53c | 50.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 45c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 47c | 48.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc08…a25cbacked Yes | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 48c | 41.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked No | 37c | 41.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 41c | 40.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 36c | 40.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf6…7521backed No | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…b38cbacked Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Fed" or "Federal Reserve" 7+ times during March press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Affordability" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Balance Sheet" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "China" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Collect" or "Collected" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Comment" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Delayed" or "Delay" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Distortion" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Dollar" 2+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Food" or "Energy" 3+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Gold" or "Oil" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Housing" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Iran" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Not our job" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Nothing" 3+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Percent" 20+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Politics" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Refund" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Signal" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Simulation" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" or "Pardon" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Speculate" or "Speculation" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Successor" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Supreme Court" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Volatile" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "War" during March press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.