Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Dollar" 2+ times during March press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8551251334ddd0a31eea54a4759491117b87fdf7a31cbdcf6761019d2cbc5b05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,304 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2108…04fbbacked No | 61c | 2,504$1,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,527.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bf…bc10backed No | 56c | 2,311$1,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,304.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5b…1edcbacked Yes | 43c | 2,302$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,301.81 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc3…724dbacked No | 63c | 1,349$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…3836backed Yes | 39c | 1,304$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9aa…ab86backed Yes | 39c | 1,200$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46af…54e8backed Yes | 37c | 960.37$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +171.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…dcfebacked No | 52c | 911.65$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 65c | 799.86$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.91 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2f…7e70backed Yes | 48c | 788.33$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.95 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +116%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 67c | 732.98$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.22 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x128e…001dbacked No | 54c | 549$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 61c | 434.9$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.41 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…41f6backed Yes | 46c | 370$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…7babbacked Yes | 46c | 352$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 57c | 349.98$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.49 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eae…5e6dbacked No | 52c | 349.65$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.45 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb08…2b30backed Yes | 35c | 342.96$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa682…2303backed Yes | 54c | 313.8$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba58…28c2backed Yes | 39c | 305$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 18cpaid | +85%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed No | 62c | 302.79$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.66 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b0…fc67backed Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 36c | 300$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb593…28eabacked Yes | 51c | 286$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f51…c63cbacked No | 49c | 272$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x981e…d368backed No | 49c | 266$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c0…c4c9backed Yes | 51c | 252$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 42c | 236.06$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.46 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 53c | 235.87$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.82 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a2…ade9backed Yes | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8521…91c8backed Yes | 47c | 225.7$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.62 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +90%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 52c | 213.19$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.04 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c43…65b2backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…50aabacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e8…2471backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3434…8637backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b7…ee36backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb643…e815backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc318…bbecbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e1…aa87backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7915…17b1backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94cb…cb4cbacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd566…532cbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba0…97bfbacked Yes | 37c | 199.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.99 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…d829backed Yes | 50c | 199.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b1…367fbacked No | 50c | 199$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885e…2186backed Yes | 50c | 199$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe16a…4590backed Yes | 50c | 199$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc633…4f50backed Yes | 50c | 199$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9f…be64backed Yes | 50c | 199$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b50…c36dbacked No | 50c | 198$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cff…66bebacked Yes | 50c | 197.2$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b0…3e75backed Yes | 50c | 195.6$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae31…7fa1backed No | 10c | 190.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed No | 61c | 182.8$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.34 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 48c | 180.84$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.53 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd137…ceacbacked No | 54c | 173$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63ed…437dbacked Yes | 41c | 162.83$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa1…d4c8backed No | 70c | 161.71$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 39c | 159.5$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.61 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 58c | 136.03$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 32c | 116.51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.23 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 39c | 115.61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 34c | 115$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.35 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 64c | 108.25$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.87 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed Yes | 32c | 104.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.51 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8965…9830backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x580f…1c26backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked No | 58c | 94.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed Yes | 53c | 93.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 43c | 88.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6d…9074backed Yes | 35c | 84.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 57c | 83.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes | 36c | 83.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.19 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5b…0037backed Yes | 36c | 75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6699…604ebacked Yes | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff3…4957backed Yes | 35c | 73.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +187.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…5fb0backed Yes | 41c | 73.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 46c | 72.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.17 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 53c | 72.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 42c | 70$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed No | 54c | 67.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31b3…c41fbacked Yes | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee2…e71fbacked Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 37c | 57.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 35c | 53.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…a4d3backed No | 63c | 53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 45c | 51.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f2…eea5backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +191%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c81…4c46backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked No | 48c | 49.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…a2aabacked Yes | 50c | 49.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 33c | 49.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Yes | 41c | 49.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9c…196bbacked Yes | 43c | 48.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…fffdbacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 61c | 48.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea72…e2cbbacked Yes | 43c | 46.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Dollar" 2+ times during March press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Affordability" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Balance Sheet" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "China" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Collect" or "Collected" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Comment" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Delayed" or "Delay" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Distortion" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Fed" or "Federal Reserve" 7+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Food" or "Energy" 3+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Gold" or "Oil" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Housing" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Iran" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Not our job" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Nothing" 3+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Percent" 20+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Politics" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Refund" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Signal" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Simulation" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" or "Pardon" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Speculate" or "Speculation" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Successor" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Supreme Court" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Volatile" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "War" during March press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.