Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Comment" during March press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0732a650d433bae0b42c98d719838a491ba0192a011318f7b6494230a77dd614
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,785
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,785 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 1c | 2,750$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed No | 14c | 2,287$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,956.01 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2f…7e70backed Yes | 78c | 756.72$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.61 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +116%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad6…464cbacked No | 15c | 699.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.99 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 17c | 597.74$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.36 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x809d…c03dbacked No | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 22c | 399.98$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.98 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 40c | 327.33$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.67 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked No | 14c | 302.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.98 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 16c | 286.22$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.04 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3a…ee52backed No | 21c | 250$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd166…666ebacked No | 18c | 196.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.45 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed No | 19c | 145.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.33 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd7…7a69backed Yes | 78c | 128.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 50c | 118.71$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1818…830dbacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3944…d633backed No | 16c | 91.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +204.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked No | 17c | 90$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.3 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 24c | 89.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.42 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3eae…5e6dbacked Yes | 79c | 80.29$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae31…7fa1backed No | 16c | 70$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…fb3fbacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 78c | 38.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 34.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Comment" during March press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Affordability" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Balance Sheet" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "China" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Collect" or "Collected" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Delayed" or "Delay" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Distortion" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Dollar" 2+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Fed" or "Federal Reserve" 7+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Food" or "Energy" 3+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Gold" or "Oil" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Housing" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Iran" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Not our job" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Nothing" 3+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Percent" 20+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Politics" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Refund" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Signal" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Simulation" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" or "Pardon" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Speculate" or "Speculation" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Successor" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Supreme Court" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Volatile" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "War" during March press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.