Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Powell say "Delayed" or "Delay" during March press conference?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd2ee5a18044241f3b5f051e638f46fddabb3f130400c8ccbef1590d09a86abe

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 18, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $4,381

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,381 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xfa27…d1d3backed No	63c	1,022$644 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$378.14	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.37per pick	63cpaid	+58.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x74b8…0c87backed No	63c	692$436 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$256.04	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.32per pick	69cpaid	+46.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xab21…4b87backed Yes	37c	585$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.45	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f2b…d78bbacked Yes	37c	580$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.6	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf13d…9896backed Yes	37c	549$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.13	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes	3c	380$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.67	48	37.5%18 W · 30 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3eae…5e6dbacked No	51c	100.99$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.93	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	57cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3068…083dbacked No	58c	96.2$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.59	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	39c	85.51$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.29	138	29.7%41 W · 97 L	-13.4wins	-0.10per pick	39cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	43c	55$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.65	240	46.3%111 W · 129 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88ad…9e5fbacked Yes	60c	50$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb3a…a2aabacked Yes	55c	45.45$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+69.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4786…26e3backed Yes	45c	44.88$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde06…41fbbacked Yes	35c	41.4$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.38	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+1.5wins	+0.11per pick	54cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16c9…17afbacked No	57c	36$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.48	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+1.6wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8593…c931backed No	67c	34.13$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.35	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7169…3ca6backed No	64c	28.7$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.41	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.31per pick	69cpaid	+45.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	43c	23.54$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.12	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	+1.6wins	+0.06per pick	30cpaid	+23.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Powell say "Delayed" or "Delay" during March press conference?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event