Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Affordability" during March press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6284356c65a03e1f7454a61cdadeff1c9b02dfd95db6e5470c4e9a4e125f79b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,003 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa676…1c22backed No | 63c | 515$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.1 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes | 38c | 400$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.91 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 61c | 399.96$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.99 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ec…71f4backed Yes | 37c | 324.32$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…58b8backed Yes | 40c | 285$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2f…242ebacked Yes | 40c | 278$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd497…612fbacked Yes | 40c | 275$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f0…d2a6backed Yes | 40c | 272$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42d1…6522backed Yes | 40c | 268$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5549…bdd0backed Yes | 40c | 265$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0559…5600backed Yes | 40c | 262$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2511…5779backed Yes | 40c | 257$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5376…133bbacked Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…67b5backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…fd7cbacked Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0953…3a58backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d7…a0aebacked Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa0…bc81backed Yes | 40c | 248$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35a5…53c2backed Yes | 40c | 248$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc8…3b1bbacked Yes | 40c | 248$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf570…cba3backed Yes | 40c | 248$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7acf…9f61backed Yes | 40c | 245$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 67c | 241.8$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 21c | 236$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2da1…f5a1backed No | 60c | 195$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x429b…01f2backed No | 60c | 188$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8426…3874backed No | 60c | 188$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb2…fc7ebacked No | 60c | 185$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0657…6710backed No | 60c | 182$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9349…839ebacked No | 60c | 180$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20f1…cfd4backed No | 60c | 177$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e3…02b4backed No | 60c | 177$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f0…ec92backed No | 60c | 175$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bae…992dbacked No | 60c | 167$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…b361backed No | 60c | 167$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3310…36d3backed No | 60c | 167$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…6c0abacked No | 60c | 167$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe826…35b2backed No | 60c | 167$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd3…fb4cbacked No | 60c | 167$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb559…6e76backed No | 60c | 166$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9af7…52a9backed No | 60c | 166$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb921…7028backed No | 60c | 166$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d3…7708backed No | 60c | 166$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…bb96backed No | 60c | 166$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb976…857dbacked No | 60c | 166$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…9434backed No | 60c | 166$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6810…8cdabacked No | 60c | 165$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd287…469bbacked No | 60c | 165$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x552f…4354backed No | 60c | 165$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 61c | 149.71$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafe8…9ca9backed No | 60c | 141$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc2…7ed7backed Yes | 38c | 130.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd97d…bcffbacked No | 63c | 130$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…b918backed No | 60c | 127$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 13c | 118.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xebef…8731backed Yes | 44c | 113.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…a8c9backed No | 60c | 112.53$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78eb…9a2bbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +178.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 93$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 13c | 89.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 28c | 88.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 64c | 84.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…a2aabacked Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes | 39c | 64.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4b…eb8cbacked Yes | 36c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3068…083dbacked Yes | 40c | 49.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked No | 64c | 45.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 65c | 44.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed Yes | 36c | 43.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…2cdabacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed No | 63c | 39.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63e1…802abacked Yes | 39c | 38.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31b3…c41fbacked Yes | 35c | 36.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…a4d3backed No | 59c | 36.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5b…d430backed Yes | 42c | 34.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 65c | 18.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -78%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Affordability" during March press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Balance Sheet" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "China" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Collect" or "Collected" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Comment" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Delayed" or "Delay" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Distortion" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Dollar" 2+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Fed" or "Federal Reserve" 7+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Food" or "Energy" 3+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Gold" or "Oil" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Housing" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Iran" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Not our job" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Nothing" 3+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Percent" 20+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Politics" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Refund" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Signal" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Simulation" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" or "Pardon" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Speculate" or "Speculation" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Successor" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Supreme Court" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Volatile" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "War" during March press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.