Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "War" during March press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27db30029405d16290c78a22fbbed93b2ee2d20d80223625ba1f05fa94f79af8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,406
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,406 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 48c | 2,532$1,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225.77 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5b…1edcbacked Yes | 53c | 1,898$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.91 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde06…41fbbacked No | 50c | 1,247$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.27 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f52…a35abacked Yes | 53c | 1,084$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +103%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 3c | 916$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe4…ee11backed Yes | 47c | 693.4$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…73b4backed Yes | 45c | 583.61$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27b0…fc67backed Yes | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.29 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 52c | 499.96$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.98 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked No | 50c | 417$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.26 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed No | 47c | 372$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdece…08dbbacked No | 47c | 367$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8465…6cd7backed No | 47c | 345$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 52c | 315.37$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.69 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 50c | 300$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.08 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 43c | 291.24$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.24 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 50c | 290.08$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.1 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa41d…9111backed No | 40c | 266$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe215…a3d9backed No | 41c | 265.16$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…1bd3backed Yes | 47c | 263.25$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee68…7477backed No | 40c | 261$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…b04cbacked No | 40c | 257$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes | 48c | 253.47$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.24 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd330…ac04backed No | 40c | 253$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f80…14cdbacked Yes | 49c | 249.99$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…a068backed No | 40c | 249$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc836…c936backed No | 40c | 241$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc35…94e1backed No | 40c | 240$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd9…b0eabacked No | 40c | 240$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 54c | 235.39$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.66 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed No | 37c | 228.69$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.71 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x344c…5cd2backed No | 40c | 227$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 216.04$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.77 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ab…cf5abacked No | 54c | 201.22$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…7f33backed Yes | 60c | 201$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c7…7e23backed Yes | 60c | 198$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d4…eab6backed Yes | 60c | 198$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…7d78backed Yes | 60c | 198$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87cf…94f9backed Yes | 60c | 192$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb08…2b30backed Yes | 53c | 191.6$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfffe…a9e2backed Yes | 60c | 191$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ff…b00abacked Yes | 63c | 190.87$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9d…9de8backed Yes | 65c | 184.72$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed No | 52c | 181.51$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.28 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +73%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…7f38backed Yes | 60c | 180$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1b…0f4cbacked Yes | 60c | 179$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95af…4f54backed Yes | 60c | 177$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726a…88a7backed Yes | 44c | 175.59$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…2439backed Yes | 60c | 175$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6c…7eccbacked Yes | 60c | 175$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdc…126fbacked Yes | 60c | 170$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 52c | 166$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.93 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed No | 59c | 150$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.81 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 41cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0beb…078abacked No | 39c | 139$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6aa…941dbacked No | 39c | 134$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f35…231bbacked No | 40c | 129$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…1812backed No | 50c | 125.1$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebef…8731backed Yes | 58c | 121.55$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.61 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ddc…e667backed No | 37c | 115$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 112.92$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked No | 35c | 108$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…a4d3backed No | 48c | 104$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd1…099ebacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 44c | 97.9$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31b3…c41fbacked Yes | 52c | 95.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.7 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed No | 55c | 94.02$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 52c | 85.6$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…e21dbacked Yes | 37c | 79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.77 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +4.2wins | +0.39per pick | 52cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x95f7…ae50backed No | 39c | 76.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 44c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c2…e324backed No | 51c | 62.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61e1…c580backed Yes | 43c | 59.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +96.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 55c | 59.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked No | 51c | 58.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40c8…9322backed Yes | 61c | 58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes | 46c | 56.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…9af8backed Yes | 54c | 56.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0a…62acbacked Yes | 63c | 56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 54c | 55.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1997…7280backed Yes | 61c | 53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7da2…166cbacked Yes | 61c | 51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6836…d72bbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 56cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8f…6f11backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…a2aabacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f2…eea5backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +191%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5107…4106backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…800abacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked No | 55c | 48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8505…443fbacked Yes | 65c | 46.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02af…2ecdbacked Yes | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…b8ebbacked Yes | 61c | 44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 46c | 43.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 55c | 43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x936c…96e8backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 52c | 41.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…e189backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2751…3666backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "War" during March press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Affordability" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Balance Sheet" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "China" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Collect" or "Collected" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Comment" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Delayed" or "Delay" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Distortion" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Dollar" 2+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Fed" or "Federal Reserve" 7+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Food" or "Energy" 3+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Gold" or "Oil" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Housing" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Iran" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Not our job" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Nothing" 3+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Percent" 20+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Politics" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Refund" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Signal" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Simulation" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" or "Pardon" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Speculate" or "Speculation" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Successor" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Supreme Court" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Volatile" during March press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.