Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Recession" during March press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x226640ce58fac6e983d10821cbadaf346b078b2feca86873eb3bbf8e75f6f017
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,605 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 79c | 1,691$1,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,337.59 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1002…a396backed Yes | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6e…b29dbacked No | 67c | 1,000$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 6c | 916$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.96 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed No | 6c | 666$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba58…28c2backed Yes | 20c | 624.68$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 18cpaid | +85%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…e21dbacked Yes | 54c | 590.44$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.23 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +4.2wins | +0.39per pick | 52cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9904…5ac8backed Yes | 34c | 588.24$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe977…700fbacked No | 4c | 511.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a2…183fbacked Yes | 28c | 500$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe264…a97bbacked Yes | 26c | 425.04$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 6c | 416$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…af95backed No | 5c | 401$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 72c | 399.97$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.98 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x158d…9c64backed Yes | 26c | 380.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9e…5421backed Yes | 27c | 338.49$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 67c | 308.77$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.05 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 73c | 302.6$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.24 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.4 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8965…9830backed No | 70c | 300$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 66c | 299.99$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.99 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 297.11$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.43 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 62c | 268.43$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.28 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 30c | 255.73$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.01 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 75c | 249.99$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.26 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…2a32backed No | 74c | 230$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 70c | 222.49$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.47 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 33c | 217.2$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.19 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8151…3421backed No | 71c | 196$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27b…95f3backed No | 67c | 190$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa8…cf3dbacked No | 67c | 188$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 71c | 182.48$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.56 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 74c | 180$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.6 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8609…4897backed No | 69c | 175.11$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc43…2b23backed No | 72c | 172.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa25c…3314backed No | 67c | 163$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 25c | 156.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.8 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbf…0367backed No | 67c | 155$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…edd5backed No | 67c | 155$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 73c | 150$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…0f64backed No | 67c | 149$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5e…7972backed No | 74c | 135.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 80c | 128.36$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.28 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed Yes | 25c | 119.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.92 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 27c | 119.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.3 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7172…5e45backed Yes | 27c | 118.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +268.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63ad…2044backed Yes | 32c | 114.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb062…4e72backed Yes | 30c | 108$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 10c | 100.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.81 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5f…b5bdbacked Yes | 29c | 100.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61e1…c580backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +96.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd1…099ebacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…1db9backed Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf1…796ebacked Yes | 31c | 90.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 22c | 89.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…9278backed Yes | 31c | 83.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 30c | 83.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 29c | 82.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…44c2backed Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x649c…0bc9backed Yes | 26c | 75.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +279.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2f…7e70backed Yes | 33c | 73.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.26 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +116%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6699…604ebacked Yes | 28c | 69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc9…0b92backed No | 71c | 64.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebef…8731backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 60c | 64.07$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…d190backed Yes | 29c | 61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 76c | 60.03$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f2…eea5backed Yes | 24c | 58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +191%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 65c | 57.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed No | 66c | 56.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e5…d252backed Yes | 29c | 55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +134%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed No | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ef…c393backed No | 75c | 53.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…800abacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 60c | 48.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 76c | 46.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…9f96backed Yes | 33c | 45.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…ef2ebacked Yes | 26c | 45.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +278.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5344…7dc1backed Yes | 31c | 41.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +141.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 29c | 41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf6…7521backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34a…6e39backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x375f…21b6backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27fc…4f00backed No | 70c | 34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8402…3c46backed No | 67c | 28.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3243…365fbacked No | 70c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 67c | 20.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 72c | 17.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdae6…c635backed No | 70c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Recession" during March press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Affordability" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Balance Sheet" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "China" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Collect" or "Collected" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Comment" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Delayed" or "Delay" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Distortion" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Dollar" 2+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Fed" or "Federal Reserve" 7+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Food" or "Energy" 3+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Gold" or "Oil" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Housing" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Iran" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Not our job" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Nothing" 3+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Percent" 20+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Politics" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Refund" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Signal" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Simulation" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" or "Pardon" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Speculate" or "Speculation" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Successor" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Supreme Court" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Volatile" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "War" during March press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.