Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Gold" or "Oil" during March press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeae1c71dbb4020696a8b12ef6e9ce9aed164d92e6340751de12951439f20393f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,245 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 6c | 3,029$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.03 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 13c | 825.22$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 11c | 800$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…25a8backed No | 8c | 589.45$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 12c | 525.82$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 10c | 513.55$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.81 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 12c | 473.19$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.78 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 9c | 444.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…422abacked No | 7c | 422.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 4c | 388.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 14c | 282.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x917c…66f2backed No | 14c | 263.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 8c | 203.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a3…e60abacked No | 8c | 180.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 11c | 171.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 15c | 114.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf571…d2dcbacked No | 12c | 106.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ad…9e5fbacked No | 10c | 104.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96a9…ff55backed No | 17c | 86.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Gold" or "Oil" during March press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Affordability" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Balance Sheet" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "China" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Collect" or "Collected" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Comment" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Delayed" or "Delay" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Distortion" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Dollar" 2+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Fed" or "Federal Reserve" 7+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Food" or "Energy" 3+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Housing" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Iran" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Not our job" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Nothing" 3+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Percent" 20+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Politics" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Refund" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Signal" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Simulation" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" or "Pardon" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Speculate" or "Speculation" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Successor" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Supreme Court" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Volatile" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "War" during March press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.