TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x917c…66f2

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
35
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Commodities, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 52 out of 100; worst Movies at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$371Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+56.9%+$211.02
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$418Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$417.5
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$111
Will Solana reach $120 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$110.46
Will Solana dip to $60 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$108.19
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+293.9%+$323.33
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+85.2%+$213
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+138.1%+$345.24
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+33.3%+$116.67
All 10 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-47.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the DHS shutdown last 90 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$661Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$661.01
Will the DHS shutdown last 80 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$531Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$531.43
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$5,927Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$5,926.65
Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$1,183Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,183.2
Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$1,361Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,360.91
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$994Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+97%+$963.57
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+121.7%+$88.42
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$71
All 8 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+44.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$314Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+122.6%+$385.52
Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.53
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$221Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$73.5
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$220
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Space Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX have 11 or more launches in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$251Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$250.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Starmer say "Constructive" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.08
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$227Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$227.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Will Smith" or "Punch" be said at the Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.42
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.