Us Politics · resolved market
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6acea3596be0a8126e8658d39ecc1ac44bee1246c162e51a8062b380bcf147c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,306,902
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,125,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,306,902 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 778 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c21…e775backed No | 17c | 57,776$10,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,059.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1528…fe34backed Yes | 42c | 47,227$19,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,263.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6b…c821backed No | 0c | 42,680$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x917c…66f2backed No | 17c | 35,076$5,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,926.65 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 21c | 35,037$7,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,488.81 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd47c…77f4backed No | 1c | 34,022$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb7…44f2backed No | 17c | 24,894$4,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,319.47 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d7…707fbacked Yes | 20c | 23,668$4,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,052.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +412.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed No | 34c | 23,305$7,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,898.82 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 80c | 22,660$18,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,536.07 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…5e2abacked No | 10c | 17,847$1,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,739.45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x353c…2af5backed Yes | 1c | 17,687$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,454.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +1,837.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 23c | 16,441$3,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,760.57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed No | 38c | 15,808$5,969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,969.44 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a82…206abacked Yes | 28c | 14,902$4,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,711.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…820cbacked No | 9c | 14,009$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,224.71 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec6…cd1fbacked No | 62c | 13,104$8,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,113.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x398f…7bf2backed No | 20c | 12,930$2,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,586 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…009dbacked No | 2c | 12,764$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb793…fe03backed No | 24c | 12,600$2,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,973.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a15…ad51backed No | 63c | 12,596$7,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,913.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 50c | 12,000$6,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,963.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd05…cf04backed No | 25c | 10,250$2,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,538.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b2c…5341backed No | 68c | 10,000$6,831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,830.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…eac6backed Yes | 29c | 9,900$2,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,009.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +242.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c0…9ab1backed Yes | 27c | 9,900$2,705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,195.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +266%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…f1bebacked Yes | 30c | 9,700$2,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,751.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +228.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 71c | 9,645$6,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,821.57 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +176.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f3…5dbdbacked No | 16c | 9,613$1,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,501.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4728…6426backed No | 18c | 9,471$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,679.88 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 28c | 8,860$2,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,498.98 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e6…63febacked Yes | 33c | 8,300$2,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,536.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +200.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04db…f0fdbacked No | 0c | 8,228$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e5…9749backed No | 9c | 8,140$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 8c | 7,911$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 3c | 7,827$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,630.12 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1664…2babbacked Yes | 10c | 7,764$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,980.49 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f82…463bbacked No | 3c | 7,611$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa992…8f7ebacked Yes | 37c | 7,350$2,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,615.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +168.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 58c | 7,120$4,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,020.1 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3d…bb53backed No | 14c | 7,037$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 53c | 6,911$3,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,640.24 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939b…9cd7backed Yes | 51c | 6,406$3,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,128.55 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…2467backed No | 66c | 6,300$4,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,155.18 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 29c | 6,287$1,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,465.01 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b6…a1b0backed No | 23c | 6,265$1,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,418.55 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee91…093ebacked Yes | 76c | 6,129$4,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,446.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes | 36c | 6,000$2,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,866.55 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +157.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x418f…44fabacked No | 52c | 5,861$3,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,028.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x275c…d09dbacked No | 13c | 5,831$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402e…5d12backed No | 47c | 5,733$2,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,667.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dfd…4f13backed No | 66c | 5,236$3,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,460.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 76c | 5,209$3,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,231.99 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f5…e99bbacked No | 7c | 5,150$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4da6…b8e5backed No | 15c | 5,149$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a55…1d25backed No | 23c | 5,004$1,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,173 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed No | 1c | 5,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -89%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 55c | 5,000$2,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,749.76 | 137 | 14.6%20 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d62…8b08backed Yes | 36c | 4,868$1,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,108.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +176.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…d86fbacked No | 56c | 4,844$2,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,724.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 57c | 4,694$2,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,668.4 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 4,612$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,476.25 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 19c | 4,587$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.82 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 67c | 4,569$3,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,501.61 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53f0…c6f2backed No | 68c | 4,316$2,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,951.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…81e5backed No | 67c | 4,280$2,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,854.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5d…31b9backed No | 22c | 4,269$927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb123…e6f2backed Yes | 46c | 4,166$1,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,242.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 23c | 4,157$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.43 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf037…acf3backed No | 7c | 4,105$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd894…0d19backed No | 13c | 4,044$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 47c | 4,041$1,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,127.48 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…a984backed No | 6c | 4,009$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 10c | 3,865$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa986…e827backed No | 71c | 3,780$2,676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,676.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…8202backed No | 63c | 3,700$2,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,323.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedde…8fcbbacked No | 73c | 3,700$2,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,693.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1943…ce4abacked No | 63c | 3,650$2,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,292.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95c3…916ebacked Yes | 75c | 3,650$2,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71fa…9ec4backed Yes | 80c | 3,638$2,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25a5…ceccbacked No | 70c | 3,600$2,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,505.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8651…8a35backed No | 31c | 3,510$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea0…d7dabacked Yes | 76c | 3,470$2,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca3b…f24cbacked Yes | 75c | 3,400$2,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc30c…6509backed Yes | 1c | 3,399$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,381.81 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +720.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7134…8febbacked No | 15c | 3,390$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.6 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 7cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed No | 16c | 3,380$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.67 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes | 1c | 3,364$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,346.93 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +951.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccc…7fdabacked No | 2c | 3,332$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1425…f1a1backed No | 67c | 3,330$2,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,220.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc4…4afcbacked Yes | 80c | 3,312$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0073…0895backed Yes | 76c | 3,300$2,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a20…aab2backed No | 73c | 3,300$2,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,399.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbef6…f2f9backed Yes | 11c | 3,273$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,910.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 28cpaid | +227.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…767fbacked Yes | 75c | 3,200$2,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e68…7dccbacked Yes | 80c | 3,190$2,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 31c | 3,190$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,207.9 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63fa…aacebacked No | 1c | 3,168$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa437…97c4backed No | 67c | 3,120$2,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,081.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa7…4850backed No | 71c | 3,120$2,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,208.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?this page
- Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025?No won
- Will the U.S. collect between $1t and $2t in revenue in 2025?No won
- Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025?No won
- Will the U.S. collect between $500b and $1t in revenue in 2025?No won
- Will the U.S. collect more than $2t in revenue in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.