Us Politics · resolved market
Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd94efe3bbd624fb6577ad51cf5639dcbbcd0eb5a6f03543d98a8e4fe58af27a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,736,957
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,419,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,736,957 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 698 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a6b…c821backed Yes | 1c | 51,501$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a34…ff77backed Yes | 58c | 40,416$23,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,441.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8df0…1c54backed No | 42c | 40,416$16,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,441.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c3…6a46backed No | 48c | 38,735$18,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,142.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe998…348abacked Yes | 52c | 38,735$20,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,142.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…2d8fbacked Yes | 6c | 37,278$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x917c…66f2backed Yes | 4c | 32,655$1,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,360.91 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…12afbacked Yes | 2c | 26,912$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe91e…e3c1backed Yes | 55c | 25,078$13,793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,792.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4736…949dbacked No | 45c | 25,078$11,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,792.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c41…da6dbacked No | 57c | 24,703$14,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,622.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa988…5fd1backed Yes | 43c | 24,703$10,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,622.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 31c | 24,071$7,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,434.13 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5e…a09cbacked Yes | 8c | 20,983$1,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,713.98 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x353c…2af5backed Yes | 34c | 18,952$6,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,358.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +1,837.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a15…ad51backed Yes | 35c | 18,412$6,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,494.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…009dbacked Yes | 2c | 17,907$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab78…fac0backed Yes | 6c | 15,695$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.54 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf501…8852backed Yes | 34c | 13,614$4,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,687.08 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x03a0…f584backed Yes | 2c | 13,118$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccb…3f79backed Yes | 2c | 13,000$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 8c | 12,680$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.18 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85ac…19d2backed Yes | 0c | 12,393$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed Yes | 6c | 10,987$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.6 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 41c | 10,439$4,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,253.01 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…c003backed Yes | 5c | 10,351$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2f…3794backed Yes | 40c | 10,082$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x275c…d09dbacked Yes | 3c | 10,045$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 9,609$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.7 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…534abacked Yes | 4c | 9,564$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.85 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 8,591$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.12 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9489…3909backed Yes | 3c | 7,681$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 7,587$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.86 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb20…f396backed Yes | 31c | 7,550$2,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,340.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b8…b9c9backed Yes | 31c | 7,543$2,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,338.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 6c | 6,860$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.48 | 110 | 10%11 W · 99 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9266…7562backed Yes | 13c | 6,836$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.84 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…a76abacked Yes | 38c | 6,556$2,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,489.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939b…9cd7backed Yes | 17c | 6,411$1,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.36 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 18c | 6,363$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,152 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe106…4c82backed Yes | 36c | 6,160$2,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,217.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee91…093ebacked Yes | 6c | 6,130$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…8cfdbacked Yes | 16c | 6,124$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc30c…6509backed Yes | 7c | 5,954$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.98 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +720.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…5243backed Yes | 63c | 5,893$3,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,689.27 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +1,019.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…18d0backed Yes | 36c | 5,743$2,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,067.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 25c | 5,739$1,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,454.07 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked Yes | 36c | 5,708$2,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,052.98 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ad…e169backed Yes | 2c | 5,686$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e5…9749backed Yes | 3c | 5,333$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 28c | 5,197$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440.31 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Yes | 49c | 5,194$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,549.8 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…5c87backed Yes | 2c | 5,127$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.52 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 2c | 5,115$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +158.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20d7…7f5cbacked Yes | 32c | 5,042$1,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,609.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +498.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 49c | 5,000$2,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,430.1 | 137 | 14.6%20 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ec…0993backed No | 64c | 4,700$3,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,692 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Yes | 7c | 4,589$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf6…62a5backed Yes | 15c | 4,526$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 40c | 4,500$1,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,778.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x298b…d53fbacked No | 69c | 4,163$2,872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26c1…00dcbacked No | 64c | 4,093$2,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,473.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…ee3ebacked Yes | 17c | 4,007$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.63 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5886…d85abacked No | 69c | 3,954$2,728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 21c | 3,912$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.67 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…ba84backed Yes | 8c | 3,889$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14cd…f69ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,875$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf574…5e3ebacked No | 69c | 3,657$2,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,133.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 3,554$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.07 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 4c | 3,506$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.57 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 4c | 3,470$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.73 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 24c | 3,432$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.94 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f47…24e0backed Yes | 2c | 3,403$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 5c | 3,331$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.28 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b28…b31fbacked No | 69c | 3,319$2,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd797…b968backed Yes | 0c | 3,243$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 61c | 3,223$1,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,963.81 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 3,211$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.34 | 94 | 3.2%3 W · 91 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 2c | 3,115$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f9…138ebacked No | 64c | 3,110$1,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,119.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 2c | 3,043$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.86 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…c43ebacked Yes | 5c | 3,022$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe111…f95abacked Yes | 0c | 2,966$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 77c | 2,864$2,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.08 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 5c | 2,848$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e96…8193backed Yes | 6c | 2,728$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb57…0a7bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,707$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 76c | 2,658$2,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2687…9a43backed Yes | 1c | 2,581$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…57d4backed Yes | 1c | 2,544$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 3c | 2,534$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5c…1b1ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,505$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859e…df37backed Yes | 23c | 2,502$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92ec…b523backed Yes | 4c | 2,467$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x523a…9217backed Yes | 6c | 2,417$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a18…85aabacked Yes | 53c | 2,313$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,218.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…5e2abacked Yes | 15c | 2,268$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.72 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,206$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.89 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd47c…77f4backed Yes | 3c | 2,164$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025?this page
- Will the U.S. collect between $1t and $2t in revenue in 2025?No won
- Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025?No won
- Will the U.S. collect between $500b and $1t in revenue in 2025?No won
- Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?Yes won
- Will the U.S. collect more than $2t in revenue in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.