Us Politics · resolved market
Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7130b8d9bb59393ede189911ba57783debc1900dffb8143c3cb0027952e2f7df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,116,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $906,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,116,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 650 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a6b…c821backed Yes | 0c | 72,846$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…22a9backed Yes | 41c | 36,912$15,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,269.94 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 9c | 27,119$2,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,422.01 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a0…c7f2backed Yes | 37c | 21,200$7,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,844 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…5e2abacked Yes | 11c | 20,453$2,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,163.04 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed Yes | 35c | 19,860$6,934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,933.59 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…2d8fbacked Yes | 11c | 18,475$2,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,034.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9266…7562backed Yes | 26c | 16,361$4,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,331.31 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 19c | 15,054$2,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,847.54 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x402e…5d12backed Yes | 30c | 14,752$4,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,398.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…820cbacked Yes | 7c | 14,650$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…12afbacked Yes | 3c | 14,102$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab78…fac0backed Yes | 11c | 13,613$1,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,477.73 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccb…3f79backed Yes | 5c | 13,000$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.96 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x917c…66f2backed Yes | 9c | 12,569$1,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,183.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df5…e7c2backed Yes | 18c | 11,376$2,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,021.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d91…87ccbacked No | 63c | 11,200$7,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,144 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 4c | 10,082$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.09 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +176.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x315c…3bcabacked No | 63c | 10,000$6,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,700 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 12c | 9,642$1,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,112.46 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e55…0a16backed Yes | 28c | 9,600$2,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,688 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 70c | 9,357$6,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,851.15 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 12c | 9,289$1,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111.38 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 27c | 8,235$2,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,253.21 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59a7…3b81backed Yes | 1c | 7,250$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5acd…c079backed Yes | 12c | 6,923$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 22c | 6,684$1,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,446.23 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939b…9cd7backed Yes | 29c | 6,406$1,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,836.13 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x154d…99f9backed Yes | 1c | 6,246$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee91…093ebacked Yes | 15c | 6,130$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a20…ab28backed Yes | 1c | 6,073$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb7…44f2backed Yes | 16c | 5,547$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…5c87backed Yes | 3c | 5,127$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked No | 72c | 5,087$3,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,421.95 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…a523backed Yes | 3c | 4,790$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8525…bdbabacked Yes | 34c | 4,700$1,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,612.59 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…dfa4backed No | 65c | 4,628$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,627.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 79c | 4,606$3,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.11 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf501…8852backed Yes | 20c | 4,540$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.54 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 1c | 4,386$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb123…e6f2backed Yes | 32c | 4,166$1,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,326.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 4,092$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.96 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked No | 18c | 4,080$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,332.65 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4da6…b8e5backed Yes | 14c | 3,942$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f3…5dbdbacked Yes | 14c | 3,822$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd203…4629backed No | 72c | 3,600$2,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 64c | 3,302$2,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,189.28 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5d…31b9backed Yes | 13c | 3,294$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 10c | 3,274$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3892…c815backed No | 72c | 3,200$2,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 3,195$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.61 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 54c | 3,042$1,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,653.06 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3d…bb53backed Yes | 10c | 3,004$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9126…f4efbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 15c | 2,981$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.94 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…db7abacked Yes | 14c | 2,955$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ad…e169backed Yes | 6c | 2,842$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b9…5c5cbacked No | 72c | 2,800$2,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…12e1backed Yes | 11c | 2,602$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3320…f398backed Yes | 4c | 2,596$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf3…c6c5backed Yes | 18c | 2,500$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x353c…2af5backed Yes | 35c | 2,486$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +1,837.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 64c | 2,427$1,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.35 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c3…eb07backed Yes | 31c | 2,285$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03a0…f584backed Yes | 12c | 2,260$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79f2…18ffbacked Yes | 15c | 2,249$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3f…d7a8backed Yes | 30c | 2,160$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…ee3ebacked Yes | 20c | 2,084$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.44 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cb…a226backed Yes | 4c | 2,054$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9131…4c37backed Yes | 1c | 2,036$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c21…e775backed Yes | 39c | 1,966$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccc…7fdabacked Yes | 1c | 1,952$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…ed5fbacked Yes | 24c | 1,946$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbff…5830backed No | 70c | 1,900$1,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…81dbbacked Yes | 51c | 1,873$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…534abacked Yes | 20c | 1,819$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.29 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,810$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.45 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ae5fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,756$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 13c | 1,737$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.16 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf10…557ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,736$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…0f1fbacked Yes | 70c | 1,722$1,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +205.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 1,703$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 60c | 1,700$1,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.91 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 9c | 1,699$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.89 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf60a…c9bdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,681$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 40c | 1,671$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 9c | 1,618$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.09 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46c7…ed2ebacked Yes | 18c | 1,536$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…5986backed Yes | 24c | 1,528$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e73…c1dbbacked Yes | 24c | 1,528$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd2…7897backed Yes | 24c | 1,528$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 9c | 1,500$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Yes | 33c | 1,462$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 22c | 1,452$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.95 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf940…0231backed Yes | 14c | 1,397$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77fd…b6c8backed No | 66c | 1,394$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…5243backed No | 72c | 1,364$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.47 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +1,019.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x379f…cbaebacked Yes | 2c | 1,335$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…e9cbbacked Yes | 28c | 1,292$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.94 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee0…1006backed Yes | 2c | 1,291$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025?this page
- Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025?No won
- Will the U.S. collect between $1t and $2t in revenue in 2025?No won
- Will the U.S. collect between $500b and $1t in revenue in 2025?No won
- Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?Yes won
- Will the U.S. collect more than $2t in revenue in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.