Us Politics · resolved market
Will the U.S. collect between $1t and $2t in revenue in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc0a4c64465923ef51a0609b706ac5f23a56b590b7e660ba5303bded0d7a90b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $812,350
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $272,113
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $812,350 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x00ee…1128backed Yes | 0c | 75,990$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…ee3ebacked Yes | 0c | 38,787$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf44a…4cbdbacked Yes | 0c | 33,965$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 24,764$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7134…8febbacked Yes | 0c | 21,667$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.65 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 7cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c5…1469backed Yes | 1c | 21,497$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6de5…3d0fbacked Yes | 0c | 15,782$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d6…58f0backed Yes | 0c | 15,512$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6253…4908backed Yes | 1c | 15,200$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…ccc1backed Yes | 0c | 13,149$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9131…4c37backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf60a…c9bdbacked Yes | 0c | 11,709$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe4…5504backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,501$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b6…2f9fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379f…cbaebacked Yes | 0c | 9,582$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d9…e31dbacked Yes | 0c | 9,366$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1def…c0fcbacked Yes | 0c | 9,286$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb93a…c91fbacked Yes | 0c | 8,996$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 7,538$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdd…a7d9backed Yes | 0c | 7,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf35b…8043backed Yes | 0c | 7,093$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bea…f95abacked Yes | 0c | 6,711$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf444…de85backed Yes | 1c | 6,466$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x939b…9cd7backed Yes | 0c | 6,406$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa244…545abacked Yes | 0c | 6,291$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee91…093ebacked Yes | 0c | 6,115$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8525…bdbabacked Yes | 0c | 5,900$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x719d…cf0fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,598$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 5,498$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 73 | 6.8%5 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53e9…8d7ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,333$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff6…72aebacked Yes | 2c | 5,312$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.17 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4285…6ed8backed Yes | 0c | 5,268$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…5c87backed Yes | 0c | 5,127$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f8…93c1backed Yes | 1c | 5,070$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…534abacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa17b…8c6abacked Yes | 0c | 4,869$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…2460backed Yes | 0c | 4,856$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…6e47backed Yes | 0c | 4,479$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49c…a486backed Yes | 0c | 4,348$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c23…2b66backed Yes | 0c | 4,065$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -76%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…0cd9backed Yes | 1c | 4,024$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 1c | 2,759$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f75…7292backed Yes | 0c | 2,690$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce63…8ee6backed Yes | 1c | 2,454$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dad…3cd4backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 1,284$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25fd…71f7backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 421.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.S. collect between $1t and $2t in revenue in 2025?this page
- Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025?No won
- Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025?No won
- Will the U.S. collect between $500b and $1t in revenue in 2025?No won
- Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?Yes won
- Will the U.S. collect more than $2t in revenue in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.