Us Politics · resolved market
Will the U.S. collect between $500b and $1t in revenue in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07c96dbd0f70e5a27a0e15c22042abcc57bc6acc7f740f7935e0a08cde5e5138
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,670,721
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,849,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,670,721 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 180 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x00ee…1128backed Yes | 0c | 48,121$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.49 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…ee3ebacked Yes | 0c | 33,228$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 30,332$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf60a…c9bdbacked Yes | 0c | 28,224$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.44 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf44a…4cbdbacked Yes | 0c | 26,650$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…534abacked Yes | 0c | 24,495$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.77 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d2…de53backed Yes | 0c | 22,906$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7134…8febbacked Yes | 1c | 21,707$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.5 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 7cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 21,529$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ea…ae08backed Yes | 0c | 21,356$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58d1…5312backed Yes | 0c | 21,125$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac4…1e19backed Yes | 1c | 19,651$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c5…1469backed Yes | 1c | 19,086$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…2edbbacked Yes | 0c | 19,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 17,902$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.27 | 73 | 6.8%5 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d6…58f0backed Yes | 0c | 17,712$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e3…bd5dbacked Yes | 0c | 17,646$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…1d1fbacked Yes | 0c | 17,005$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd176…3159backed Yes | 0c | 16,710$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842e…989abacked Yes | 0c | 16,701$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf077…babdbacked Yes | 0c | 16,521$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef04…a70bbacked Yes | 0c | 16,168$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7301…5dd9backed Yes | 0c | 16,057$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceec…075fbacked Yes | 0c | 15,926$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd877…1843backed Yes | 1c | 14,667$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45ea…d81dbacked Yes | 1c | 13,051$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…976cbacked Yes | 0c | 13,037$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63b5…aaeebacked Yes | 0c | 13,022$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b17…60c7backed Yes | 0c | 13,006$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6de5…3d0fbacked Yes | 1c | 12,497$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.92 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa244…545abacked Yes | 1c | 12,401$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b09…6d43backed Yes | 0c | 12,160$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9e…fb49backed Yes | 0c | 12,051$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6489…ba5bbacked Yes | 1c | 11,717$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 11,528$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed Yes | 0c | 10,157$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef55…ece0backed Yes | 1c | 10,076$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b6…2f9fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc3…d183backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc5…c8e2backed Yes | 0c | 9,333$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…6a4dbacked Yes | 1c | 9,251$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4090…0158backed Yes | 0c | 9,162$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…f107backed Yes | 0c | 9,162$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4a…a18ebacked Yes | 1c | 9,125$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc42…935fbacked Yes | 1c | 9,125$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf50…18d8backed Yes | 0c | 9,070$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…53debacked Yes | 0c | 9,056$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc817…0f8abacked Yes | 0c | 9,041$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d2…933ebacked Yes | 0c | 9,041$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aed…e278backed Yes | 1c | 8,989$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…65cebacked Yes | 1c | 8,957$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed75…65c3backed Yes | 1c | 8,907$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1165…c7d7backed Yes | 0c | 8,840$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb346…fc97backed Yes | 1c | 8,809$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b3…69f2backed Yes | 1c | 8,809$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc6…e7f6backed Yes | 0c | 8,676$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…008bbacked Yes | 0c | 8,660$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b6…a1b0backed Yes | 1c | 8,619$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.34 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1210…a166backed Yes | 0c | 8,368$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61b1…eea5backed Yes | 0c | 8,368$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5599…203ebacked Yes | 1c | 8,365$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 0c | 8,347$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…45e5backed Yes | 0c | 8,089$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…24e6backed Yes | 0c | 8,048$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b58…5734backed Yes | 0c | 8,048$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc9…84efbacked Yes | 1c | 7,869$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bea…f95abacked Yes | 1c | 7,517$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5d…6051backed Yes | 0c | 7,515$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f6…fe58backed Yes | 0c | 7,515$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15f7…4e02backed Yes | 0c | 7,359$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbe…b13bbacked Yes | 0c | 7,354$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07ab…fa45backed Yes | 0c | 7,328$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17aa…a561backed Yes | 0c | 7,292$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…06c2backed Yes | 0c | 7,283$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84b4…9899backed Yes | 0c | 7,129$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1351…409dbacked Yes | 0c | 7,129$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b8…9164backed Yes | 0c | 7,072$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 3c | 7,013$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.38 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 0c | 6,885$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ea…66d0backed Yes | 1c | 6,637$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x939b…9cd7backed Yes | 1c | 6,406$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.65 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea0a…f717backed Yes | 1c | 6,365$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee91…093ebacked Yes | 1c | 6,130$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…34a7backed Yes | 0c | 5,998$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43df…2814backed Yes | 0c | 5,657$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16e0…2cddbacked Yes | 0c | 5,407$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…71bcbacked Yes | 1c | 5,397$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…9449backed Yes | 0c | 5,383$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x901d…ccf3backed Yes | 0c | 5,347$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e9…8d7ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,333$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b5…d2edbacked Yes | 1c | 5,285$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49c…a486backed Yes | 0c | 5,282$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x731d…71eabacked Yes | 0c | 5,212$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…5c87backed Yes | 0c | 5,127$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…17a8backed Yes | 0c | 5,122$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b05…2317backed Yes | 0c | 5,093$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c45…1be8backed Yes | 0c | 5,052$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x719d…cf0fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,030$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d15…56fabacked Yes | 0c | 4,869$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb33…901abacked Yes | 1c | 4,868$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.S. collect between $500b and $1t in revenue in 2025?this page
- Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025?No won
- Will the U.S. collect between $1t and $2t in revenue in 2025?No won
- Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025?No won
- Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?Yes won
- Will the U.S. collect more than $2t in revenue in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.