TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7bf6…22a9

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
146
Categories scored
22
Categories below 50
17

Best Category: NHL, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category NHL at 54 out of 100; worst NFL at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT5433.3%18 W · 36 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 54 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+70.9%+$141.88
Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
Will United States win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$285Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$285
Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.4
Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$130
Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
Brazil vs. Norway: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$38
Will Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.8
Canada vs. Morocco: Team to Advancebacked Canada · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$102
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Will Algeria win on 2026-07-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$159.38
Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$182
Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$266Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$209
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$164
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$263Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$262.5
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$230Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$770
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advancebacked Brazil · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$142.5
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$98
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 7.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$259.52
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$350
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$120
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$72
Showing 25 of 54 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT1020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-46.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Utah State Aggies vs. Arizona Wildcatsbacked Utah State Aggies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.73
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Virginia Cavaliersbacked Virginia Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$148.69
St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawksbacked Kansas Jayhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$154.7
VCU Rams vs. Illinois Fighting Illinibacked VCU Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$174.26
High Point Panthers vs. Arkansas Razorbacksbacked High Point Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$139.41
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Nebraska Cornhuskersbacked Nebraska Cornhuskers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$245.36
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Texas Longhornsbacked Mississippi State Bulldogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$9,112Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+211.3%+$19,250.01
Auburn Tigers vs. Georgia Bulldogsbacked Auburn Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$2,670Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$2,670.02
Morehead State Eagles vs. Lindenwood Lionsbacked Morehead State Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$540Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$539.89
Utah State Aggies vs. Tulane Green Wavebacked Tulane Green Wave · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$7,306Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$7,305.94
All 10 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Nov 17, 2025, EST90%0 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "The Running Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 21m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$12.25
Will 'Joker 2' gross most in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$2,261Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$2,260.79
Will 'Deadpool 3' gross most in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$447Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$447.03
Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross more than $150m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$358Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2024, EDT-100%-$357.98
Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $135-150m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$285Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2024, EDT-100%-$284.74
Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $105-120m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2024, EDT-100%-$65.03
Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $120-135m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$480Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2024, EDT-100%-$480.17
Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross between $95m and $105m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$360Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$359.77
Will 'Alien: Romulus' gross more than $50m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2024, EDT-100%-$139.61
All 9 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick26cpaid-64.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pelicans vs. Heatbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$2,269Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$2,268.67
Hawks vs. Raptorsbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$12,913Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$12,913.29
Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 231.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$10.48
Timberwolves vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$27,439Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$27,439.36
Grizzlies vs. Lakersbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$4,800Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$4,799.63
Thunder vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$4,227Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$4,226.96
Magic vs. Bullsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$3,123Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+220.2%+$6,877.04
Suns vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$14,070Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$14,070.25
Jazz vs. Lakersbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$10,826Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$10,826.2
All 9 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+40%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 24, 2025, EST742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-54.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick44cpaid-67.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
NFL — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bills vs. Broncosbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$10,015Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$10,014.82
Bills vs. Jaguarsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$398Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+96.1%+$382.2
Colts vs. Texansbacked Colts · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$2,684Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$2,684.17
Cowboys vs. Giantsbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$544Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$543.9
Chiefs vs. Cowboysbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$11,550Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$11,550.39
Bills vs. Texansbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$32,890Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$32,890
All 6 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Nov 18, 2025, EST50%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick34cpaid+68.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Stars vs. Utahbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$341Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+81.8%+$279
Flames vs. Canucksbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$214Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST+223%+$476.38
Avalanche vs. Blackhawksbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$134.21
All 3 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick62cpaid-7.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
UFC — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$1,650Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$1,650
Iran military response by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$25,178Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2024, EDT-100%-$25,178.38
Iran military response by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$1,801Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2024, EDT-100%-$1,801.08
All 3 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$12,249Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+48.5%+$5,937.7
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$29,723Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+51.7%+$15,376.11
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Sep 8, 2024, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Taylor Fritz win the US Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$1,367Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2024, EDT-100%-$1,366.89
US Open: Pegula vs. Muchovabacked Pegula · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$3,656Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2024, EDT+39.1%+$1,430.13
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Aug 11, 2024, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-36.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
USA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$46,561Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2024, EDT+27.2%+$12,679.46
China wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,896Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2024, EDT-100%-$1,896.3
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jimmy Kimmel be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$1,503Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$1,502.83
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$38,296Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$38,296
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Dec 16, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$9,710Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$9,709.87
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Sep 10, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
August temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29°C?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$265Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2024, EDT-100%-$264.85
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.