TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,803,403
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,158,508

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,803,403 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,372 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes15c252,212$38,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,380.891729.4%5 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick16cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes8c205,292$16,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,434.015121.6%11 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes13c171,570$22,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,794.351216.7%2 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-66.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60df…a69ebacked Yes13c155,535$20,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,476.1330%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes19c108,134$20,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,639.971414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-58.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No76c65,554$49,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,862.43742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick65cpaid-37.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5666…c630backed Yes20c58,000$11,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,784.952030%6 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick21cpaid-5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes23c56,636$12,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,964.011729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No67c49,103$32,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,118.961747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33e0…7d46backed No79c45,214$35,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,455.641553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+37%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11e8…5b74backed No76c43,752$33,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,494.731442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-42.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2826…5ea2backed No75c40,874$30,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,107.94475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes34c40,467$13,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,560.8950%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x94a5…aec1backed No74c39,351$28,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,367.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes28c39,074$10,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,976.094845.8%22 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+7.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes14c34,499$4,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,889.92326.1%6 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick14cpaid-9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes7c33,000$2,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,376.973119.4%6 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick19cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27db…e863backed Yes23c31,454$7,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,289.961833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-43.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee3e…ebb5backed Yes23c29,779$6,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,792.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes35c27,612$9,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,670.242030%6 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed Yes43c25,580$11,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,003.911060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3e4…5bf6backed Yes13c24,837$3,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,250.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5273…d975backed Yes23c22,337$5,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,210.09460%0 W · 46 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x821a…1f18backed Yes31c22,295$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,00050%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7bf6…22a9backed Yes48c20,133$9,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,709.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33d2…952ebacked No74c19,972$14,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,245.833100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x068e…7f47backed Yes2c19,249$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes13c18,325$2,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,301.561546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+20.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes12c15,922$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,890.45219.2%10 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-35.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No69c15,302$10,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,704.772454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e77…482ebacked Yes5c15,185$727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c74…bd4ebacked Yes8c14,948$1,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,176.5840%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c0e…1411backed Yes15c14,600$2,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,179.972010%2 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-68.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7734…4193backed No78c14,427$11,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,191.593100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes23c13,772$3,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,184.222313%3 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-75%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7ac…0a7abacked No68c13,479$9,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,363.26250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-26.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x626d…ff68backed Yes31c12,961$4,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,065.81330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-16.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x27b4…4278backed No75c12,811$9,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,210.95862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick67cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5078…00e9backed Yes21c12,708$2,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,657.37616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedc2…ad9fbacked Yes29c12,511$3,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,685.381643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes21c12,358$2,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,554.363828.9%11 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes10c12,062$1,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,193.962040%8 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc153…6c8bbacked Yes34c11,999$4,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,069.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd300…30adbacked Yes38c11,882$4,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,532.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x96ac…2c21backed Yes17c11,724$2,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,041.480%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xce66…cc64backed No60c10,973$6,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,404.881233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc90…9e95backed Yes1c10,757$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.31250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb581…b496backed No74c10,643$7,871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,772.352548%12 W · 13 L+4.3wins+0.17per pick31cpaid+30.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No76c10,440$7,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,469.796040%24 W · 36 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-33.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c68…2ddcbacked Yes32c9,519$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes6c9,000$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.313132.3%10 W · 21 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd7b0…bd69backed Yes49c8,980$4,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,371.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes4c8,784$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369160%0 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes5c8,491$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.863315.2%5 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+46.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1994…b4e5backed Yes12c8,200$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.991338.5%5 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.24per pick14cpaid+105.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x43cd…f8c1backed No68c7,518$5,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,424.623100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb25b…38d5backed No72c7,322$5,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,027.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed No67c7,015$4,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,305.53475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+84%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed No71c6,894$4,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,021.196836.8%25 W · 43 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c23…0266backed Yes33c6,750$2,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,217.17119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-71.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1ec…2d0ebacked No65c6,716$4,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,357.593100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed No76c6,656$5,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,600.612941.4%12 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick30cpaid-8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes12c6,600$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.05812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-77%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f85…8693backed Yes7c6,600$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.21540%6 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8204…56eabacked Yes29c6,500$1,867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,867.28825%2 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+159.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0074…88f2backed Yes8c6,468$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes5c6,424$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.7160%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef48…ef15backed No78c6,414$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,413.96366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+39.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9f1…5840backed No78c6,409$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,408.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes33c6,320$2,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,114.35137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-85.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4ca…4ca9backed Yes47c6,310$2,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,993.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cf3…4ec6backed Yes11c6,186$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.62616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid-36.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7083…49f9backed No59c6,083$3,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,519.44540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-36.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c49…7af9backed No75c6,000$4,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,530616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-77.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8330…366cbacked Yes8c5,938$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90e3…5e35backed No64c5,433$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,933.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed No63c5,395$3,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,010.861560%9 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes3c5,282$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.092638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes18c5,270$947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$947.371926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-61.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d54…b83abacked Yes8c5,109$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7eac…d2b8backed Yes14c5,053$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ef5…5d4fbacked No42c5,023$2,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,925.78862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b44…264ebacked Yes29c4,976$1,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,460.131323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-34%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x88dc…eb22backed Yes25c4,954$1,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,263.2530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c16…4085backed No76c4,925$3,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,169.988100%8 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa5ad…be8cbacked Yes44c4,877$2,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,145.69520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-54%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes44c4,867$2,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,134.520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b30…c01abacked No70c4,779$3,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,447.261163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick59cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8296…e9cbbacked Yes26c4,744$1,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,253.5690%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd26f…fa03backed Yes10c4,708$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes21c4,671$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.444348.8%21 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc254…3f73backed No68c4,624$3,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,498.86250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1295…5cfdbacked Yes12c4,456$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.7130%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83a2…9452backed No68c4,450$3,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,442.222365.2%15 W · 8 L+5.1wins+0.22per pick43cpaid+51.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9981…dec4backed No74c4,295$3,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,135.68366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick72cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe362…bd00backed No74c4,292$3,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,100.493100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes4c4,220$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.163145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf164…61fdbacked No76c4,199$3,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,005.592100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee4…276fbacked Yes60c4,182$2,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,508.951464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3164…ad18backed No73c4,150$3,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,102.2475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+72.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.