TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

US x Venezuela military engagement by November 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,504,728
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,593,172

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,504,728 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 660 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x030e…5652backed Yes20c42,000$8,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,429.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes13c33,412$4,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,237.225121.6%11 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77c4…38acbacked Yes3c32,312$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,124.8230%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e28…dc83backed Yes32c28,984$9,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,183.1870%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf492…3061backed Yes8c27,770$2,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,331.74120%0 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd152…4faabacked Yes11c22,951$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+49.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b49…f2dfbacked Yes2c22,287$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.15702.9%2 W · 68 L+0.2wins0.00per pick3cpaid-81.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes10c20,679$2,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,038.393119.4%6 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick19cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a14…e0fbbacked Yes13c18,000$2,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,34020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4589…12adbacked Yes13c18,000$2,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,340633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes16c16,763$2,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,612.244348.8%21 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa966…208bbacked Yes13c16,744$2,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,174.53310%0 W · 31 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes33c16,192$5,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,416.913132.3%10 W · 21 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x78bc…2585backed Yes20c15,000$2,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,949.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-49.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x821a…1f18backed Yes40c14,866$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,00050%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes41c12,706$5,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,178.811145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-35.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No64c10,349$6,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,735.88742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick65cpaid-37.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x11e8…5b74backed No79c10,182$8,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,165.531442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-42.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6f1…11eebacked Yes48c10,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,80020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc417…3ca6backed Yes2c10,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21090%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2fb5…d9a0backed Yes12c10,000$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-59.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c9,800$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.5160%0 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeff8…7b5abacked No51c9,756$4,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,764.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0509…6e98backed Yes44c8,402$3,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,690.151442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x451e…65a2backed Yes23c7,856$1,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,845.9130%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0529…f75ebacked Yes19c7,500$1,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,42510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes6c7,494$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.561526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-50%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e1f…c855backed Yes43c7,132$3,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,083.121118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.25per pick43cpaid-63.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes34c7,048$2,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,398.751338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc077…f651backed Yes19c6,900$1,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,31110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes21c6,831$1,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,431.513030%9 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4582…0e91backed Yes19c6,600$1,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31b3…c41fbacked Yes3c6,516$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.52560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05fd…50c9backed Yes15c6,261$939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.2728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-48.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb52…92eebacked No80c6,225$4,954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,270.71850%4 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-28.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a4b…f4d2backed Yes19c6,200$1,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,17810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4b…dbcabacked No80c6,086$4,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,238.171258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fd2…88b1backed Yes2c6,053$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-44.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96ac…2c21backed Yes11c6,000$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.9980%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f82…e964backed Yes3c5,688$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.6230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae30…43a9backed No55c5,475$3,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,464.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f9e…be96backed No68c5,439$3,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,752.112100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…1279backed Yes2c5,335$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-67.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf05…70dabacked Yes26c5,003$1,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,306.1825%2 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x357e…2a0cbacked Yes13c5,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6501978.9%15 W · 4 L+5.5wins+0.29per pick50cpaid+81.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x9d2a…9ee3backed Yes29c4,779$1,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,386.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e69…c403backed No71c4,651$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,350.854100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+59.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3143…81b1backed No78c4,469$3,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$966.02683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick62cpaid+31.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe103…59fdbacked No69c4,458$3,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,374.81353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf710…edc9backed Yes2c4,300$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.052630.8%8 W · 18 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick18cpaid+5.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes14c4,300$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6181241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa971…e347backed Yes45c4,000$1,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,795.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed No77c3,965$3,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$908.031560%9 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes13c3,965$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.344126.8%11 W · 30 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x47f5…934dbacked Yes31c3,933$1,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,203.751323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-61.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce66…cc64backed Yes14c3,929$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.681233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc813…44dabacked Yes24c3,887$917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$916.830%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a64…efd5backed Yes3c3,838$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.73714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick5cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bcf…0d1bbacked Yes33c3,837$1,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,253.53616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed Yes35c3,770$1,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,301.7420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes28c3,752$1,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,031.824316.3%7 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-40.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8453…778dbacked No78c3,700$2,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8141100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf676…ccc3backed Yes4c3,642$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5fd…36d1backed Yes33c3,547$1,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,185.681233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+21.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes11c3,239$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.612245.5%10 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+76.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes3c3,189$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.29911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes10c3,172$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.811741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick31cpaid-31.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes12c3,083$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.971926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-61.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c97…4569backed Yes1c3,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-67.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes12c2,911$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.1430%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x057a…72bebacked No54c2,800$1,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,285875%6 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+36.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes2c2,775$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.665014%7 W · 43 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-69%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed No57c2,771$1,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,201.87580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+27.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xecf4…9979backed No62c2,747$1,714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,032.87875%6 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+19.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2354…6c01backed Yes11c2,727$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x477d…55a9backed Yes1c2,695$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.252462.5%15 W · 9 L+4.4wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+26%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6bb6…2124backed Yes19c2,632$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x982e…39f3backed Yes19c2,605$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49540%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x30b2…9e25backed Yes10c2,548$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.461428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick22cpaid-37.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc714…399bbacked Yes43c2,538$1,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,086.58333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+58.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7860…07a8backed No61c2,519$1,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981.681050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes8c2,500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002313%3 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-75%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes1c2,469$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.747435.1%26 W · 48 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-37.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa365…ee73backed Yes2c2,450$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.32450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-33.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb20b…8da0backed Yes15c2,447$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.942917.2%5 W · 24 L-3.6wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-55.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2f39…93d3backed Yes19c2,432$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a35…bc55backed No70c2,390$1,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.85100%5 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+49.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4bf6…fecebacked Yes42c2,341$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.1933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes26c2,282$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.88333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-57.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64bc…a31ebacked Yes11c2,275$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfac…490fbacked No67c2,267$1,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$757.21369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a54…f7f9backed No70c2,204$1,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.94862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+13.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No60c2,200$1,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8826841.2%28 W · 40 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdecd…f575backed Yes36c2,200$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.98250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e2f…7976backed Yes4c2,183$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.5990%0 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bbe…1559backed Yes7c2,119$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.471612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-68.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed No76c2,100$1,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499650%3 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes38c2,065$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790.240%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96c1…3a8fbacked Yes3c2,055$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8483…6d56backed Yes1c2,043$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1250%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.