TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

US x Venezuela military engagement by November 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$471,084
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$501,654

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $471,084 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x53e5…6177backed Yes1c38,171$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.11216.7%2 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-66.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b49…f2dfbacked Yes0c25,061$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.25702.9%2 W · 68 L+0.2wins0.00per pick3cpaid-81.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd95…8c17backed Yes4c18,648$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.632917.2%5 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-63%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf492…3061backed Yes4c17,292$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.44120%0 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fe8…f492backed Yes3c14,903$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.1446.8%3 W · 41 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-68.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c14,800$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.3160%0 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05c5…1d0abacked Yes0c12,781$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes7c11,387$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.1140%0 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeef4…520dbacked Yes2c10,998$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23860%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes3c9,500$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.773132.3%10 W · 21 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaca3…cb95backed Yes4c7,585$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.1730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d57…c5b6backed Yes2c6,869$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.2890%0 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f16…03f3backed Yes4c6,473$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.770%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce49…c3b9backed Yes2c5,556$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.41428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick21cpaid-40.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fb1…36f3backed Yes2c5,410$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.31140%0 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed Yes4c5,219$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.441323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-48.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes1c4,976$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.135121.6%11 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47f5…934dbacked Yes5c4,667$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.341323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-61.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a71…954bbacked Yes1c4,316$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1940%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes2c4,116$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.644843.8%21 W · 27 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x950a…b380backed Yes1c3,975$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.97273.7%1 W · 26 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-86.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x819e…e967backed Yes1c3,196$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.82412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-69.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes4c3,000$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1272429.2%7 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes2c2,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50444.5%2 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-81.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d81…2b63backed Yes1c2,415$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5660%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4035…3afcbacked Yes4c2,295$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-55%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes5c2,250$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.53119.4%6 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick19cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f7b…a5b0backed Yes2c2,187$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0673…2e81backed Yes17c2,180$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.8100%0 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd08…4a59backed Yes5c2,174$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.94837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+32.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4bc2…597abacked Yes1c2,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2290%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes1c2,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1860%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa966…208bbacked Yes2c1,901$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.71310%0 W · 31 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes1c1,555$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.672638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf969…7ce8backed Yes4c1,447$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5470%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Yes4c1,400$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-46.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x949f…4ae8backed Yes1c1,312$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4970%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf62…0b74backed Yes4c1,100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79ac…344abacked Yes6c1,058$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd46e…904abacked Yes1c1,030$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6070…b755backed Yes4c1,000$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4aa…9cabbacked Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20313.2%1 W · 30 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+61.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c879.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.561644.9%8 W · 156 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-75.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes9c799.98$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.52045%9 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4561…59d4backed Yes14c697.27$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.5250%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes12c649.09$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.892313%3 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-75%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc080…eb69backed Yes4c645$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15d2…6dc4backed Yes2c622.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x982e…39f3backed Yes4c618.75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7540%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee83…f6d7backed Yes3c577.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2680%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes4c567$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.681741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick31cpaid-31.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12cc…275dbacked Yes4c555.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-74%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x185d…82c1backed Yes4c526.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes4c511.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7248.3%2 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-71.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x604a…8379backed Yes4c508.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8662…c94fbacked Yes6c499.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302317.4%4 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-40.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2853…3482backed Yes4c438.89$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.932321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Yes8c426.9$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.534533.3%15 W · 30 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd221…a44bbacked Yes5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20248.3%2 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-70.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5273…d975backed Yes8c325.84$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.07460%0 W · 46 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc72d…320fbacked Yes8c300$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2430%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes3c300$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.22128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-33.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b30…84ccbacked Yes4c300$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.11612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-71.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30b2…9e25backed Yes5c273.06$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.651428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick22cpaid-37.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x64f6…1698backed Yes5c256.28$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1230%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7772…5e17backed Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa103…a2e1backed Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ea6…b249backed Yes7c243.82$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183318.2%6 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-53.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes7c240$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-39.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes11c225.84$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.843030%9 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes8c225$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188013.8%11 W · 69 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-52.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes13c220$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282334.8%8 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4242…f42ebacked Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a54…efafbacked Yes7c180.24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.95714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-57.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed No79c142$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.22580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+27.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf826…cd1abacked Yes14c139.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17ed…b9e3backed Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1270%0 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdf47…efc8backed Yes18c83.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0360%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60cd…9860backed Yes33c37.84$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c49…7af9backed Yes51c22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.22616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-77.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.61735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-34.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.