Venezuela · resolved market
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7869dccfeb331854df1c7394ba79fe6edc4bb2b9f6467c8971a71eff593561ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2b5…a457backed No | 1c | 4,079$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 3,757$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 164 | 4.9%8 W · 156 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…8beabacked Yes | 62c | 3,242$2,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,231.9 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 64cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…e1eebacked No | 38c | 3,110$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,184.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked No | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…75a6backed No | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4b…61f4backed No | 38c | 519.84$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7866…8645backed No | 13c | 390$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…dbcabacked Yes | 61c | 280$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 62c | 139.56$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.32 | 124 | 25.8%32 W · 92 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 11c | 131.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfee…64bbbacked No | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 58cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c2…1398backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked Yes | 66c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.31per pick | 60cpaid | +118.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 23c | 86.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 63c | 23.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 67 | 71.6%48 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31, 2026?this page
- US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by December 23?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by December 5?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by December 9?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?Yes won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 1?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 21?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 23?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 24?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 25?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 26?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 27?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 2?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 3?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 5?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 7?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by October 24?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by October 27?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.