TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,188,344
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,879,034

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,188,344 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 3,279 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x03af…87cbbacked Yes31c303,111$92,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92,877.55911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-66.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes19c276,216$52,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52,008.131216.7%2 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-66.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes15c270,234$40,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,553.41414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-58.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes14c212,162$30,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,529.71729.4%5 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick16cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd08…4a59backed Yes22c200,355$43,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,722.51837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+32.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f1d…63d9backed Yes2c189,153$4,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,174.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6989…b412backed No79c184,123$145,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,934.061850%9 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+14.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes26c118,342$31,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,262.683132.3%10 W · 21 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed No71c96,009$68,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,423.081741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick31cpaid-31.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce66…cc64backed No61c93,733$57,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,430.261233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd968…d5ecbacked Yes1c92,886$1,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,187.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee69…05d0backed Yes37c87,914$32,759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,758.840%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed No71c79,803$56,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,288.61560%9 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3248…f20bbacked No69c78,859$54,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,463.39633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-49.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaddd…9407backed No73c67,483$49,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,466.45540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-44.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x96ac…2c21backed Yes25c67,408$17,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,151.1280%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes22c64,662$14,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,190.591729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a18…2ef0backed Yes25c63,198$15,699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,699.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes15c61,923$9,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,156.532941.4%12 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick30cpaid-8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x821a…1f18backed Yes52c55,142$28,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,90050%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes15c53,865$8,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,196.33828.9%11 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5273…d975backed Yes26c52,881$13,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,637.51460%0 W · 46 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9d9…5670backed Yes17c49,422$8,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,507.68425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-54.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes30c49,272$14,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,742.6350%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x036e…9276backed Yes37c48,327$17,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,801.8930%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes23c45,121$10,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,410.445121.6%11 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes29c41,229$12,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,100.012326.1%6 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick14cpaid-9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed No75c39,023$29,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,799.411656.3%9 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.19per pick37cpaid+3.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x47f5…934dbacked Yes13c38,643$4,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,953.21323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-61.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x11e8…5b74backed No74c37,058$27,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,723.161442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-42.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes37c36,648$13,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,467.744348.8%21 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33e0…7d46backed Yes31c35,523$11,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,029.941553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+37%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1304…8bf1backed No58c34,709$20,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,642.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+35.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b30…c01abacked No63c34,520$21,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,909.951163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick59cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6550…d966backed No65c34,410$22,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,902.882100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedc2…ad9fbacked Yes29c33,473$9,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,724.311643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd95…8c17backed Yes24c33,455$8,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,155.292917.2%5 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-63%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed Yes43c33,398$14,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,453.621060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No74c32,806$24,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,631.296040%24 W · 36 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-33.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No49c32,059$15,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,190.942638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2826…5ea2backed No60c30,767$18,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,257.43475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5666…c630backed Yes17c30,718$5,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,228.652030%6 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick21cpaid-5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes11c30,542$3,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,289.672030%6 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes7c28,641$2,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,055.384316.3%7 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-40.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed No59c28,385$16,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,737.5475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+84%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes31c27,829$8,664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,664.214843.8%21 W · 27 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8687…aa89backed Yes18c27,178$5,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,002.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No68c27,066$18,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,657.7742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick65cpaid-37.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes34c26,030$8,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,882.61338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc919…a162backed No66c24,399$16,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,255.592100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5157…aa2cbacked No59c23,477$13,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,662.6633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-50.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x017b…4e46backed Yes1c22,681$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.41333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-53.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6319…3ba1backed Yes21c21,854$4,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,674.6330%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3112…09a8backed No72c21,437$15,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,033.11060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75c7…aaaebacked Yes22c21,383$4,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,607.440%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x950a…b380backed Yes2c21,213$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.99273.7%1 W · 26 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-86.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes20c21,066$4,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,276.624845.8%22 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+7.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x897d…90c9backed Yes24c21,029$5,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,056.1830%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe487…aca6backed No54c20,459$10,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,467.7650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed Yes56c20,392$11,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,417.2760%0 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes16c20,337$3,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,351.665219.2%10 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-35.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb704…dc1ebacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cd…f8c1backed No70c19,863$13,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,934.13100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4266…0e08backed No68c19,379$13,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,213850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6e…b45bbacked No79c19,181$15,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,992.23540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-48.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes12c18,500$2,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,154.543119.4%6 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick19cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8204…56eabacked Yes17c18,381$3,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,085825%2 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+159.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7af…a03fbacked Yes36c18,300$6,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,509.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc012…6180backed No56c18,231$10,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,991.31540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-32.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes7c18,158$1,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,349.295014%7 W · 43 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-69%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e86…8727backed Yes35c17,500$6,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,116.53633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-42.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes13c16,926$2,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,189.89468.7%4 W · 42 L-0.2wins0.00per pick9cpaid-54.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes24c16,827$4,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,007.544126.8%11 W · 30 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed No67c16,792$11,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,487.072100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a30…4e0abacked Yes60c16,696$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No61c16,438$10,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,332.411747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc701…920ebacked Yes39c16,318$6,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,391.66520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-63%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes25c16,072$4,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,060.161546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+20.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1459…ab65backed Yes17c16,051$2,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,716.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes14c15,999$2,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,284.733063.3%19 W · 11 L+4.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed No60c15,942$9,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,376.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x200e…28f9backed Yes31c15,804$4,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,897.161225%3 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-37.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes38c15,650$5,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,995.582937.9%11 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d6c…5ba4backed Yes63c15,549$9,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,795.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes23c15,434$3,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,603.9830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c15,125$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.2150%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb701…7cf6backed Yes7c15,082$1,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,031.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x638d…3e5bbacked No76c14,939$11,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,566.822100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa20…9262backed Yes32c14,769$4,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,786.71560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes6c14,547$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$890.221827.8%5 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick17cpaid+22.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d4a…a1dcbacked Yes8c14,487$1,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1862030%6 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x124f…3661backed No61c14,465$8,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,624.84366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c9…8beabacked No70c14,416$10,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,273887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick64cpaid+36.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf94c…59dcbacked No77c14,360$11,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,315.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34e3…6adcbacked No67c14,227$9,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,720.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes17c14,206$2,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,453.923030%9 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed No35c14,125$4,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,140.134100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+124.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes51c13,604$6,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,917.711145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-35.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0481…bfecbacked Yes4c13,577$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1eb…7afebacked Yes62c13,551$8,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,420.920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.