TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

US x Venezuela military engagement by December 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$731,935
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$690,796

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $731,935 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x950a…b380backed Yes0c113,780$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.4273.7%1 W · 26 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-86.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed Yes0c100,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes1c49,985$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.751729.4%5 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick16cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes1c37,419$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.443828.9%11 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes1c34,221$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.51729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97e1…ae74backed Yes10c22,751$2,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,299.17875%6 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+63%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes3c14,500$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3972313%3 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-75%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5273…d975backed Yes3c12,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360460%0 W · 46 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2853…3482backed Yes0c9,930$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.862321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fe8…f492backed Yes3c8,707$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.2446.8%3 W · 41 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-68.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8474…247bbacked Yes4c8,221$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.07128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-79.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes0c8,194$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.89444.5%2 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-81.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff2b…b73abacked Yes0c7,101$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4160%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x007b…324ebacked Yes0c6,996$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c6,285$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.91160%0 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes4c5,929$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.055121.6%11 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0221…9964backed Yes0c5,358$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.78425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-67.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e84…ef69backed Yes2c5,102$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.762236.4%8 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202326.1%6 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick14cpaid-9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes4c5,000$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.821526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes1c4,923$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6580%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c0e…1411backed Yes6c4,460$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.792010%2 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-68.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3e4…5bf6backed Yes7c4,339$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes5c4,294$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.683953.8%21 W · 18 L+5.6wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+76.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5666…c630backed Yes3c4,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202030%6 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick21cpaid-5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes1c3,799$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.34200%0 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb20b…8da0backed Yes6c3,668$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.532917.2%5 W · 24 L-3.6wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-55.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfcd5…5542backed Yes3c3,562$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes1c3,559$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.683315.2%5 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+46.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd061…d5e4backed Yes1c3,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202313%3 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick9cpaid-34.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa31e…e625backed Yes1c3,215$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3230%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8296…e9cbbacked Yes5c3,115$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.8490%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes8c3,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.41127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c23…0266backed Yes6c2,750$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-71.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbab9…9d74backed Yes1c2,393$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19150%0 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x61e6…7af5backed Yes1c2,301$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked No74c2,222$1,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.723145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a2a…9757backed Yes4c2,108$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b8b…3c39backed Yes10c2,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200110%0 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84fa…1327backed Yes4c2,000$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+93.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x376d…9b48backed Yes3c2,000$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6240%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8420…6183backed Yes4c1,860$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.62330.4%7 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x628e…1d80backed Yes7c1,832$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.22333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-47%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe166…0099backed Yes13c1,800$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c1,718$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.061644.9%8 W · 156 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-75.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f2c…047cbacked Yes4c1,622$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a66…3dbabacked Yes2c1,600$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.46160%0 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c67…9232backed Yes10c1,565$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-51.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe05…cbb2backed Yes5c1,457$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc550…272dbacked Yes18c1,326$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.85520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-47.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes5c1,273$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3230%0 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x626d…ff68backed Yes8c1,150$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-16.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes3c1,111$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.44450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf56…ee5fbacked Yes1c1,111$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.11333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27db…e863backed Yes7c1,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-43.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9111…36a1backed Yes3c999.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ef6…4daebacked Yes2c999.81$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154438.6%17 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick31cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes3c800$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.82334.8%8 W · 15 L+3.4wins+0.15per pick20cpaid+43.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2feb…d157backed Yes4c741.46$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.730%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes3c731.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.79933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+40.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes10c681.23$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.72025%5 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-26.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x442d…523ebacked Yes3c677.52$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9550%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1128…cfa5backed Yes3c647.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick17cpaid-84.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e47…3715backed Yes10c632$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.6450%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0622…cd28backed Yes2c613.12$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd55…c9bfbacked Yes5c584.38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c22…9b23backed Yes8c550$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4460%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe809…039bbacked Yes5c520.39$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.022638.5%10 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes6c500.12$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.911625%4 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-51.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ea6…b249backed Yes6c450$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.23318.2%6 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-53.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes9c446.87$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.732334.8%8 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes5c420$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b13…a72bbacked Yes11c409.09$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x481d…48cfbacked Yes5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9970%0 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa493…612ebacked No73c400$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-16.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes3c399.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.24126.8%11 W · 30 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d56…0ba5backed Yes5c399.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1605…43bfbacked Yes6c390.5$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4360%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaef5…a454backed Yes7c385.71$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+56.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes4c364.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.261931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid+8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe973…f834backed Yes7c322.24$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes7c319.42$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.362030%6 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7330…ea0abacked Yes8c312.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cab…7222backed Yes14c286.79$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53a0…4af0backed Yes7c269.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.21540%6 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-32.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf710…edc9backed Yes4c250$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.52630.8%8 W · 18 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick18cpaid+5.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x36da…8218backed Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202619.2%5 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-54.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes4c249.98$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5238.7%2 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick19cpaid-84.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2276…3089backed Yes6c226$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2af…f8fbbacked Yes9c224.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8690…46f7backed Yes9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b59…f523backed Yes11c209.89$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9349…8d0fbacked Yes14c200$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2840%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked No72c150$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423161.3%19 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe5ed…6dbabacked Yes10c128.3$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.83825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-48.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x131b…2d3cbacked Yes16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+13.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc9b…d776backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5125…601abacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4f…5c00backed Yes78c98.8$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.260%0 W · 6 L-3.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.