TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5cab…7222

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
158
Categories scored
32
Categories below 50
19

Best Category: MLB, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category MLB at 55 out of 100; worst World Politics at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST3525.7%9 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+163.2%+$97.89
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Trump and Mamdani shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on November 21 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$40
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will the government shutdown end November 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+177.8%+$88.89
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST+455.6%+$227.78
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$38.43
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$15.09
US-China tariff agreement before 90 day deadline?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$210
Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+70.4%+$28.16
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT1827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-15%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Nuggets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$11
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$29.87
Pacers vs. Thunderbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Thunder vs. Pacersbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Pacers vs. Thunderbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$90
Pacers vs. Thunderbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT+376.2%+$225.71
Thunder vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Knicks vs. Pacersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2025, EDT+190.9%+$89.45
Timberwolves vs. Thunderbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Pacers vs. Knicksbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT+163.2%+$97.89
Timberwolves vs. Thunderbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$110
Nuggets vs. Thunderbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$80
Pacers vs. Cavaliersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2025, EDT+270.4%+$216.3
Nuggets vs. Clippersbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Magic vs. Celticsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will the Lakers beat the Timberwolves 4-2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 18 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick33cpaid-78.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
World Politics — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$360Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$360
Will Rixi Ramona Moncada Godoy win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$60
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$450Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$450
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$342Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$90.93
Will Lee Jun-seok not endorse any candidate?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Trump say "Canada" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will the Liberal Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$66
Will Luisa González win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$68
Will Daniel Noboa win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$699Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$698.62
Will Nicolas Maduro Win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2024, EDT-100%-$499.71
All 13 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST1127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-51.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+45.8%+$64.11
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+124.8%+$149.74
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$355Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$354.7
"Demon Slayer" grosses higher than "The Conjuring" opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 90-94?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Rotten Tomatoes score be 95 or higher?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 85-89?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT+67.5%+$67.5
All 11 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-79.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Belgium recognize Palestine in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+87.2%+$87.2
Will France recognize Palestine in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Canada recognize Palestine in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will the UK recognize Palestine in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Another U.S. strike on Fordow nuclear facility before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Greta Thunberg enter Gaza by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Israel military action on Yemen before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
All 9 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$116.84
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$60
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Trump publicly disparage Elon before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT+228.3%+$91.31
Will Musk say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Musk say "DOGE" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2025, EDT+111.5%+$44.59
GPT-5 announced in Q4 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$108
GPT-5 released in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$204
All 9 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST90%0 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bad Bunny wears a dress or skirt at the Big Game?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$146.19
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$60
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$1,385Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$1,385.11
Will Saquon Barkley be the top Fantasy Running Back?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$197Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST-100%-$197.02
Will Derrick Henry be the top Fantasy Running Back?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$224Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST-100%-$224
All 9 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2025, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-68.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved May 8, 2025, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.45per pick22cpaid+143.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
MLB — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Aug 11, 2024, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+41.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Nov 30, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$74.29
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$58
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nothing Ever Happens backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$138.1
Crimean bridge hit before 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$25.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Manchester United win on 2025-03-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2025, EST-100%-$62.36
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Sep 19, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Colombia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Ecuador beat Chile?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$299.99
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$333Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$333.26
Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+215.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google (GOOGL) hit $335 before 2026??backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+215.9%+$215.95
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 322: Brady vs. Morales (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Morales · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+127.6%+$70.15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT+127.3%+$25.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Barcelona beat Atlético Madrid?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$244.44
All 1 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Jun 6, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Chess — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT+117.4%+$70.43
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will stranded astronauts leave the ISS in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+112.8%+$106.05
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Dec 6, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Golf — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rory McIlroy win The 2025 PGA Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$130
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.